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Forums - Sales Discussion - Clash of the October 20th titans: Which will sell more, Mario Wonder or Spiderman 2?

 

Which will sell more?

Super Mario Bros Wonder 121 84.03%
 
Spiderman 2 23 15.97%
 
Total:144
RolStoppable on 03 October 2023

I am looking forward to SMB Wonder, but I am just as much looking forward to Nintendo announcing its sales milestones. Apparently a lot of people need to be reminded how big of a deal a REAL Mario game is.

It doesn't matter when Switch 2 launches, whether or not it's backwards compatible, whether or not a Switch 2 version is a day 1 launch title or is coming later down the road. This is all so far in the future that the proposed contest of this thread is a done deal by then anyway, nevermind that regardless of Switch 2, SMB Wonder's Switch version will keep on selling lots.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

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IcaroRibeiro on 03 October 2023
curl-6 said:

For clarification, I meant the Switch release of Wonder and the PS5 release of Spiderman.
Potential future releases of Wonder for Switch 2 or Spiderman for PC not included.

In this case this is a non-question 

Spider man has zero chance of outselling Wonder. Attachment rates are much higher on Nintendo platforms than on Sony platforms and PS5 has 0 chance of outselling Switch 



RolStoppable on 03 October 2023
rapsuperstar31 said:

I could see Mario Wonder hitting 20 million and Spiderman 2 hitting 10 million plus sales. When it's all said and done, it's possible Spiderman 2 ends up with more players when it eventually comes to Playstation + essential in a year or so.

Not too bad of a prediction for 2023 sales alone.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

Machina on 03 October 2023

Wonder, especially if we're restricting it to launch platforms alone.



Farsala on 03 October 2023

Super Mario Wonder because Switch install base vs PS5 install base, current and future.



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Jumpin on 03 October 2023

The original sold 13.2 million across multiple platforms - which is a relatively high number for a license title. NSMB sold 30 million on DS, a port of NSMBU sold 15 million copies on Switch, New Super Mario Bros Wii sold 30.3 million.

Factor in that Switch already has a substantial lead over PS5’s likely maximum sales.

Factor in that Marvel popularity outside of gaming is on a steep decline while Mario popularity is on the upswing.

I’d say anything less than double the sales for NSMB World will be surprising.



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UnderwaterFunktown on 03 October 2023
RolStoppable said:

I am looking forward to SMB Wonder, but I am just as much looking forward to Nintendo announcing its sales milestones. Apparently a lot of people need to be reminded how big of a deal a REAL Mario game is.

Looking forward to it as well. I do think people lowballing at 20m are still gonna be closer to the mark than when you predicted it might catch Animal Crossing:

RolStoppable said:

SMB Wonder's floor on Switch's final software top 10 is third place. The ceiling is second place, because Mario Kart 8 Deluxe can't be caught anymore.

They'll probably both be off by a lot though. I think it'll get close to Odyssey if nothing else.



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Norion on 03 October 2023
curl-6 said:

For clarification, I meant the Switch release of Wonder and the PS5 release of Spiderman.
Potential future releases of Wonder for Switch 2 or Spiderman for PC not included.

This comes down to what Nintendo decides to do then since a Switch 2 version in like 2025 would really cut off the legs of the Switch 1 release.



Jpcc86 on 03 October 2023

SMB Wonder could be a fantastic game, or a flat out terrible one, and it'd still sell like pancakes no matter what, so its the obvious choice here.



Wman1996 on 03 October 2023

Super Mario Bros. Wonder will easily sell more physical copies.
Spider-Man 2 is all but guaranteed to release on PC one day, but we're not sure when. And it might even get a PS6 remaster one day as well. That could help it maybe one day outsell Mario.
I voted for Mario.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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