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Forums - Sales Discussion - Clash of the October 20th titans: Which will sell more, Mario Wonder or Spiderman 2?

 

Which will sell more?

Super Mario Bros Wonder 125 84.46%
 
Spiderman 2 23 15.54%
 
Total:148
Norion said:

A lot of people are underestimating Spider-Man 2. The first sold 20 million in just a couple years so it's surely over 25m by now excluding the PC version so as long as it's received well the sequel doing better than the first and getting into the 30's on PS5 alone wouldn't really be surprising. Mario Wonder will for sure get to the 30's and potentially the 40's lifetime but that happening with the Switch 1 version alone depends entirely on if there's a Switch 2 version and if there is when that happens so this is pretty up in the air.

Install base of the ps4 was much higher than what the ps5 is.  Wonder will do 20 million easy.  



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Jumpin said:

The original sold 13.2 million across multiple platforms - which is a relatively high number for a license title. NSMB sold 30 million on DS, a port of NSMBU sold 15 million copies on Switch, New Super Mario Bros Wii sold 30.3 million.

Factor in that Switch already has a substantial lead over PS5’s likely maximum sales.

Factor in that Marvel popularity outside of gaming is on a steep decline while Mario popularity is on the upswing.

I’d say anything less than double the sales for NSMB World will be surprising.

D’oh! I mean Super Mario Wonder.



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Slownenberg said:
Norion said:

A lot of people are underestimating Spider-Man 2. The first sold 20 million in just a couple years so it's surely over 25m by now excluding the PC version so as long as it's received well the sequel doing better than the first and getting into the 30's on PS5 alone wouldn't really be surprising. Mario Wonder will for sure get to the 30's and potentially the 40's lifetime but that happening with the Switch 1 version alone depends entirely on if there's a Switch 2 version and if there is when that happens so this is pretty up in the air.

PS5 as a system has only sold 40m. So extremely unlikely a game coming out soon is going to sell 30m on it. This isn't GTA or something we're talking about, that would keep selling for the lifetime of the system. Also isn't this the third spiderman game on the system in just 3 years? Probably gonna be some people who have already played two spiderman games in as man years on the system and won't bother with yet another one. I'd say 20m lifetime is a stretch, while Wonder has a good chance of beating that just this holiday season. The last two Spiderman games were on PS4, PS5, and PC. If we're just comparing PS5 to Switch game sales here you don't get to include other systems or PC that Spiderman 2 may come out on in the future. No way a Spiderman game coming out on a 40+ million system is going to beat 2D Mario coming out on a 130 million system.

PS5 will be close to 60m by the end of this year and probably in the mid 70's by the end of 2024 and as long as reception is positive I expect lot of those new owners will get it considering how popular the IP is and that the first one has had strong legs. It's not three years, the first was 2018 and Miles Morales 2020 and the latter was a much shorter game.

No way if it gets to keep selling sure but if a Switch 2 version comes out within a couple years Wonder probably isn't gonna have enough time to outsell the PS5 version of Spider-Man 2. 

Chrkeller said:
Norion said:

A lot of people are underestimating Spider-Man 2. The first sold 20 million in just a couple years so it's surely over 25m by now excluding the PC version so as long as it's received well the sequel doing better than the first and getting into the 30's on PS5 alone wouldn't really be surprising. Mario Wonder will for sure get to the 30's and potentially the 40's lifetime but that happening with the Switch 1 version alone depends entirely on if there's a Switch 2 version and if there is when that happens so this is pretty up in the air.

Install base of the ps4 was much higher than what the ps5 is.  Wonder will do 20 million easy.  

What I said above and Spider-Man 2 should do 20 million easily as well.

Last edited by Norion - on 04 October 2023

Norion said:
Slownenberg said:

PS5 as a system has only sold 40m. So extremely unlikely a game coming out soon is going to sell 30m on it. This isn't GTA or something we're talking about, that would keep selling for the lifetime of the system. Also isn't this the third spiderman game on the system in just 3 years? Probably gonna be some people who have already played two spiderman games in as man years on the system and won't bother with yet another one. I'd say 20m lifetime is a stretch, while Wonder has a good chance of beating that just this holiday season. The last two Spiderman games were on PS4, PS5, and PC. If we're just comparing PS5 to Switch game sales here you don't get to include other systems or PC that Spiderman 2 may come out on in the future. No way a Spiderman game coming out on a 40+ million system is going to beat 2D Mario coming out on a 130 million system.

PS5 will be close to 60m by the end of this year and probably in the mid 70's by the end of 2024 and as long as reception is positive I expect lot of those new owners will get it considering how popular the IP is and that the first one has had strong legs. It's not three years, the first was 2018 and Miles Morales 2020 and the latter was a much shorter game.

No way if it gets to keep selling selling sure but if a Switch 2 version comes out within a couple years Wonder probably isn't gonna have enough time to outsell the PS5 version of Spider-Man 2. 

Chrkeller said:

Install base of the ps4 was much higher than what the ps5 is.  Wonder will do 20 million easy.  

What I said above and Spider-Man 2 should do 20 million easily as well.

Huh?? Close to 60m by end of this year?? It's not selling 18 million this quarter, or anywhere near that lol. It'll probably be a little over 50m, nowhere near 60m, by end of this year.

Wonder won't need years to outsell Spiderman, it'll outsell it by a large amount from day 1, so Switch 2 coming out probably a year after Wonder comes out isn't a big deal. There is no point at which Wonder will have sold less than Spiderman. Wonder has a good chance of outselling Spiderman's lifetime PS5 sales just in its opening quarter this holiday season, so it doesn't need to be selling big numbers in 2025 and beyond to do it.



UnderwaterFunktown said:
Slownenberg said:

Wonder's launch quarter sales will almost certainly outsell Spiderman 2's lifetime sales on PS5.

Ehh, okay dude.

I mean, can you really argue otherwise? Spiderman is unlikely to do 20m on PS5, Wonder has a decent shot at doing 20m this quarter. Would you actually argue with either of those statements?

Remember people, we're talking about PS5 alone. There is no PS4 version and we're not talking about any future PC version. This is Wonder vs Spiderman 2, one system vs one system. A Mario game launching on a system that's gonna be 130m+ at release vs a Spiderman game launching on a system that's gonna be like 44m at release. Wonder has a good chance of doubling Spiderman 2's sales lifetime.



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Which one is selling more at Amazon?



Like many are saying Mario Wonder short term, Spiderman 2 long term.
Once Spiderman 2 goes $20 each and on PC, it would outsell Wonder

Edit: Oh my bad didn't see the exclusive part. Tho I still think Spiderman 2 long term. Mario Wonder is going to be one of Switch's last game. It won't have legs nearly as much as earlier Switch titles. Also hard to imagine Nintendo selling it for less than $40, whereas I can imagine Sony selling Spiderman 2 for cheap in the future just like the previous entry. 

Last edited by Shatts - on 04 October 2023

Slownenberg said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

Ehh, okay dude.

I mean, can you really argue otherwise? Spiderman is unlikely to do 20m on PS5, Wonder has a decent shot at doing 20m this quarter. Would you actually argue with either of those statements?

Remember people, we're talking about PS5 alone. There is no PS4 version and we're not talking about any future PC version. This is Wonder vs Spiderman 2, one system vs one system. A Mario game launching on a system that's gonna be 130m+ at release vs a Spiderman game launching on a system that's gonna be like 44m at release. Wonder has a good chance of doubling Spiderman 2's sales lifetime.

Yes I'd argue with the first statement for sure. You're forgetting that Nintendo games aren't the only ones that have legs, God of War 2018 legged it to more than 20m and Spider-Man should be well over 20m on PS4 and both those games only had 3m launches, and frankly Spider-Man 2 has the advantage of launching in a very barren period for sony first party games, this the title they've been promoting all year and will probably continue to promote for a decent while afterwards. They're also doing not 1 but 2 bundles with the game, both regular and red special edition. It will certainly fall 5-10m behind Wonder in this first quarter but after that the PS5 will still have 5 years of life left while the Switch will have ~1 and I don't see them throwing out Spider-Man 3 in a couple of years to cut of its legs, this will be the Spider-Man game for PS5 and one of the console's biggest exclusives in general. People will be picking it up for years like they did with the last one.

Unless it ends up with a mixed reception which I doubt, I'd say 20m is the floor for Spider-Man 2, not the ceiling.

As for the second statement, yea I do also doubt that Wonder will hit 20m in the first quarter alone, it might not be impossible if everything goes just right, but I would put it a few millions lower than that. And as for Wonder doubling Spider-Man lifetime, yea that's even more out there, this isn't the hay days of the DS, it's a very late Switch release, it ain't hitting 40m.



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CourageTCD said:

Which one is selling more at Amazon?

Nintendo games always sell like bonkers on Amazon (and at retail in general). They're both near the top though: https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Video-Games/zgbs/videogames



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Slownenberg said:
Norion said:

PS5 will be close to 60m by the end of this year and probably in the mid 70's by the end of 2024 and as long as reception is positive I expect lot of those new owners will get it considering how popular the IP is and that the first one has had strong legs. It's not three years, the first was 2018 and Miles Morales 2020 and the latter was a much shorter game.

No way if it gets to keep selling selling sure but if a Switch 2 version comes out within a couple years Wonder probably isn't gonna have enough time to outsell the PS5 version of Spider-Man 2. 

Huh?? Close to 60m by end of this year?? It's not selling 18 million this quarter, or anywhere near that lol. It'll probably be a little over 50m, nowhere near 60m, by end of this year.

Wonder won't need years to outsell Spiderman, it'll outsell it by a large amount from day 1, so Switch 2 coming out probably a year after Wonder comes out isn't a big deal. There is no point at which Wonder will have sold less than Spiderman. Wonder has a good chance of outselling Spiderman's lifetime PS5 sales just in its opening quarter this holiday season, so it doesn't need to be selling big numbers in 2025 and beyond to do it.

The PS4 was at 53.5 million by the end of 2016 and the PS5 is about to overtake it so as long as it doesn't have a weaker holiday season than the PS4 did that year for whatever reason it will indeed be close to 60m by the end of this year.

I really think you're underestimating Spider-Man 2. It's easily the biggest PS5 exclusive yet and it's Spider-Man, people will be buying this game for the entire life cycle of the PS5 as long as it's good so it'd be shocking if it sold less than the first one which reached 20m in just a couple years.

Last edited by Norion - on 04 October 2023