Install base of the ps4 was much higher than what the ps5 is.  Wonder will do 20 million easy.  

D’oh! I mean Super Mario Wonder.

PS5 will be close to 60m by the end of this year and probably in the mid 70's by the end of 2024 and as long as reception is positive I expect lot of those new owners will get it considering how popular the IP is and that the first one has had strong legs. It's not three years, the first was 2018 and Miles Morales 2020 and the latter was a much shorter game.

No way if it gets to keep selling sure but if a Switch 2 version comes out within a couple years Wonder probably isn't gonna have enough time to outsell the PS5 version of Spider-Man 2. 

What I said above and Spider-Man 2 should do 20 million easily as well.

Huh?? Close to 60m by end of this year?? It's not selling 18 million this quarter, or anywhere near that lol. It'll probably be a little over 50m, nowhere near 60m, by end of this year.

Wonder won't need years to outsell Spiderman, it'll outsell it by a large amount from day 1, so Switch 2 coming out probably a year after Wonder comes out isn't a big deal. There is no point at which Wonder will have sold less than Spiderman. Wonder has a good chance of outselling Spiderman's lifetime PS5 sales just in its opening quarter this holiday season, so it doesn't need to be selling big numbers in 2025 and beyond to do it.

I mean, can you really argue otherwise? Spiderman is unlikely to do 20m on PS5, Wonder has a decent shot at doing 20m this quarter. Would you actually argue with either of those statements?

Remember people, we're talking about PS5 alone. There is no PS4 version and we're not talking about any future PC version. This is Wonder vs Spiderman 2, one system vs one system. A Mario game launching on a system that's gonna be 130m+ at release vs a Spiderman game launching on a system that's gonna be like 44m at release. Wonder has a good chance of doubling Spiderman 2's sales lifetime.

Which one is selling more at Amazon?

Like many are saying Mario Wonder short term, Spiderman 2 long term.
Once Spiderman 2 goes $20 each and on PC, it would outsell Wonder

Edit: Oh my bad didn't see the exclusive part. Tho I still think Spiderman 2 long term. Mario Wonder is going to be one of Switch's last game. It won't have legs nearly as much as earlier Switch titles. Also hard to imagine Nintendo selling it for less than $40, whereas I can imagine Sony selling Spiderman 2 for cheap in the future just like the previous entry. 

Yes I'd argue with the first statement for sure. You're forgetting that Nintendo games aren't the only ones that have legs, God of War 2018 legged it to more than 20m and Spider-Man should be well over 20m on PS4 and both those games only had 3m launches, and frankly Spider-Man 2 has the advantage of launching in a very barren period for sony first party games, this the title they've been promoting all year and will probably continue to promote for a decent while afterwards. They're also doing not 1 but 2 bundles with the game, both regular and red special edition. It will certainly fall 5-10m behind Wonder in this first quarter but after that the PS5 will still have 5 years of life left while the Switch will have ~1 and I don't see them throwing out Spider-Man 3 in a couple of years to cut of its legs, this will be the Spider-Man game for PS5 and one of the console's biggest exclusives in general. People will be picking it up for years like they did with the last one.

Unless it ends up with a mixed reception which I doubt, I'd say 20m is the floor for Spider-Man 2, not the ceiling.

As for the second statement, yea I do also doubt that Wonder will hit 20m in the first quarter alone, it might not be impossible if everything goes just right, but I would put it a few millions lower than that. And as for Wonder doubling Spider-Man lifetime, yea that's even more out there, this isn't the hay days of the DS, it's a very late Switch release, it ain't hitting 40m.

Nintendo games always sell like bonkers on Amazon (and at retail in general). They're both near the top though: https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Video-Games/zgbs/videogames

The PS4 was at 53.5 million by the end of 2016 and the PS5 is about to overtake it so as long as it doesn't have a weaker holiday season than the PS4 did that year for whatever reason it will indeed be close to 60m by the end of this year.

I really think you're underestimating Spider-Man 2. It's easily the biggest PS5 exclusive yet and it's Spider-Man, people will be buying this game for the entire life cycle of the PS5 as long as it's good so it'd be shocking if it sold less than the first one which reached 20m in just a couple years.