There wasn't a much of a slowdown in sales before previous special editions, don't see why this one would be different.

Hence why I said "might". Late in the console's life this can have more of an effect, but that's not guaranteed to happen.

I mean it was only a few months ago that we had the Zelda special edition, also late in the console's life. We'll see, but I don't think it's something Nintendo needs to worry about, their baseline is very healthy.

I think Nintendo has hit on a good strategy now of doing these game-colored editions of the premium model when huge games come out. People seem to like to buy them for the colors. A good long term strategy for future generations. Mario OLED will probably boost sales for a couple weeks same way the others have, and then that leads into the actual game launch and Wonder will probably boost sales for another couple weeks, and then just a couple weeks after that boost you've got the holidays starting. So we should start seeing boosted HW weeks for Switch in just another 5 or 6 weeks.

2019 and 2022 will make up a lot of ground on 2023 over the next few weeks, but Wonder should kick the Switch into overdrive.
4.5 million is in reach for sure.

I think it is possible to beat 2022 as well. Over 4.8m shouldn't be too difficult with the current economy and Mario.

Your prediction for the year have changed a lot. I don't think it's going to beat 2022 but I do think it's going to be close.

I just added up what I think are likely numbers for rest of the weeks and I came out with 4.464 million, just 30k shy of 2019, but it wouldn't surprise me if a few weeks are 10-20k higher than I put in, meaning it could definitely finish just over 4.5m, beating out 2019 by maybe even like 50k. Though I could see as low as 4.38-4.40 happening if there are a few slow weeks or if the holiday is decently weaker than last year.

Quite the change from beginning of the year when I was thinking ~3.8m. And plenty of people on here early in the year were saying it wouldn't even beat 2018 and would end up at like 3.3-3.4 million! Mario movie and especially TotK really changed the entire trajectory of Switch sales in Japan. It's crazy how much stronger Switch is in Japan than anywhere else now. Japan is literally Switch's biggest weekly market week in and week out these days.

I have predicted higher sales since the tourists started coming in and buying everything due to the weak yen.

I am predicting a little over 4M, since I think the holiday will be weaker than 2022 and 2019. However this year results till now were unexpected for pretty much everyone, including the biggest fans of the system, so everything is possible.