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Forums - Nintendo - If Nintendo waits a long time for a Switch successor, what do you think will happen?

znake on 21 June 2023

Switch 2 is coming in summer / fall 2025 at this point!



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Draconidas on 21 June 2023

2026 isn't a plausible scenario.



Mar1217 on 21 June 2023

I think some people have forgotten how much more barren the 2018/20 holidays were in comparison to what we're seeing for the end of those year so far.
Same people prolly believed it was time for Nintendo to cut the Switch lifetime early by 2022 but now here we are going strong in 2023 and prolly rolling on for 2024 as well.



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Soundwave on 21 June 2023
javi741 said:

Tbh it's still too early to determine based on the game library if there will be a new console coming or not. We've seen A-Tier Nintendo franchises launch only months before the successor or ever alongside the successor. Pokemon Sun & Moon on 3DS launched only 3 months before the Switch, BOTW & Twilight Princess were 2 A-tier franchises launching alongside the successor, and plus a year like this isn't anything very new for the Switch, the 2nd half of 2020 looks worse than the 2nd half this year.

In 2020 you had Mario 3D-All Stars which is cool, but just a collection of ports. Age of Calamity which wasn't a big holiday type seller, same with Pikmin 3 DX.
This year, you have Mario Bros Wonder which is easily bigger than any game in the 2nd half of 2020, and you have a remake of Mario RPG which is a new game that could have as much appeal, if not more than Age of Calamity..

This 2023 holiday season isn't that bad to assume it's over for the Switch.

However, after this 2D Mario idk what else Nintendo could do at this point with the Switch without greatly extending it's lifecycle and limiting the launch potential of thier next console. We know that there's no way Nintendo could release BOTW 3 on Switch anytime soon, Smash Bros 6 tbh just wouldn't make much sense on the same hardware with Ultimate existing. They could do an Animal Crossing sequel and a 3D Mario is overdue, but if they do that this late in the lifecycle for Switch it'll only push back the successor further since they would need more time to make whole new entries to the seires to be ready at launch if they were to make the next A-tier games exclusively for Switch. The only A-tier Nintendo franchise I could see Nintendo milking on Switch is Pokemon

Nintendo could release franchises that haven't got good representation on Switch, such as Mario & Luigi,Kid Icarus,Star Fox,F-Zero, or a bunch of remasters and remakes, but those types of games aren't big enough to keep the Nintendo afloat much more.

It's gonna be interesting to see if there's ever gonna be an A-tier Switch exclusive after this 2D Mario

I think you kind of answered your own question there. 

They can't really afford to give Switch another 3D Mario platformer so late, even if Switch 2 is supposed to be a 2025 product, given that it's a generational hardware leap most likely, it would be very difficult to pump out another 3D Mario for Switch 2's first year when you just released one the year prior. 

With Switch 2 not likely to have the huge benefit of a new Zelda game at launch already, taking a 3D Mario away from its first year/early product cycle too is just bordering on stupid on Nintendo's part. Same goes for basically any other A tier project at this point, it's just taking away something the Switch 2 is probably going to badly need early on 2024 or 2025, it's basically the same problem either way. 

Mario Wonder is IMO Nintendo's chance to cash in on the Mario movie's success, but after that what Nintendo showed was a whole lot of C-tier projects and remakes. 



Slownenberg on 21 June 2023
The_Liquid_Laser said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

You can tell when Nintendo is about to release a successor based on their software schedule.  The first party releases the year before a handheld system is replaced look like several small to medium-ish titles plus one really big title (usually Pokemon).  So far that is what it looks like this year with Zelda being the lone really big title.  Based on what we know so far it looks like Switch is releasing in 2024.

However, it doesn't necessarily have to be this way.  If they have a Summer Direct announcing big titles for the second half of the year, then they are pushing the Switch 2 release back to 2025 or 2026.  However, last year their Summer Direct was only a Partner Direct and had no first party titles.

Basically, I'm saying that 2024 is the most like date for the Switch 2 to launch, but we have to see what the next Direct holds to be sure.

Now that we know a new 2D Mario is on the way, in the same year that the Mario Movie exploded onto screens, I've got to change my opinion.  I think Switch 2 is more likely to release in 2025 instead of 2024 now.

I'm starting to go back to maybe next gen not coming out until possibly Spring 2025 now instead of Spring - Holiday 2024.

After seeing all these games that are come out, and thinking about how TotK has boosted Switch sales for a solid month and still going (something nobody expected), and how popular the Mario movie was and we've got 2D Mario, Super Mario RPG remake, Luigi's Mansion 3DS remake, and a Princess Peach game all coming to the Switch, makes me think Switch sales might sustain a bit more strength than the direction it looked to be going earlier in the year. Of course momentum could quickly swing down again, as it seemed to do last year and early this year. But I'm thinking the Mario movie maybe just created a few million young kids who are going to be asking for Switch and Mario Wonder for Christmas this year.

At least I'm starting to think a later 2024 launch is definitely more likely than a June/July 2024 launch which is what I had been favoring lately. I mean Nintendo just announced a few games for Switch in 2024, so unless those games are coming out in the first few months of the year, the successor probably ain't launching until second half of the year at least.

I'd only see a 2025 launch date happening though if Nintendo has some big games lined up for holiday 2024. Otherwise, they wouldn't want to sacrifice low holiday sales just to give the Switch an 8th holiday season. But we still haven't had mention of DK or Prime 4. So very possible those get released for Switch holiday 2024, along with maybe another Pokemon - another Legends game maybe, or another 3D remake? I think that'd be enough to have a solid holiday season in 2024 and push successor launch off until March 2025. If that's the case, I could see Nintendo teasing the next gen system in Fall 2024 as coming in 2025, and then in early January, just after the holiday season, they actually announce it with details for like a late March release so that they can pick up the launch week or two of sales before the fiscal year is out, while still giving people 2+ months to get ready for the system.



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javi741 on 21 June 2023

I think Switch 2 will release 2025. I think Nintendo could still get by with the Switch in 2024 with smaller franchises that haven't gotten representation on the Switch yet, possibly a Kid Icarus game,Star Fox,F-Zero remaster,ect... I also think Game Freak could pump out one more major Pokemon game as the Holiday 2024 title before Nintendo shifts focus to Switch 2 2025. However, I still believe Switch in general will keep getting 1st party Nintendo games possibly til 2027 even after the Switch 2 releases to keep the OG Switch as a safety net in case the Switch 2 underperforms. However, after 2D Mario its hard for me to see an A-tier games outside of Pokemon release exclusively on Switch 1.



Wman1996 on 21 June 2023

I think we're getting more GameCube ports/remasters. But I think regardless of how long Switch is dragged out that will happen.
Anything can still happen and not be super unlikely. Nintendo could continue to coast off of currently announced and released games, make another 3D Mario, make a DK game, finally release Metroid Prime 4, and then make lots of small titles as well. But this is not the best situation.
I'm still banking on Switch 2 releasing Q1 2025 or earlier. I think Q3/Q4 2024 is the most likely at this point.
I don't think I mentioned in the OP, but I really don't want Switch 2 launching in 2026 or beyond. It is Nintendo's only platform right now and will even be very dated as a handheld device by then. And as a home console, my goodness.



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Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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zeldaring on 21 June 2023
Soundwave said:

A Mario game for the holidays of the same year they launched the Mario movie was always a given, I've been saying it for months on this board, even right down to them not wanting to show it before the Mario movie because you don't want kids doing the whole "I saw the new Mario game has Elephant Mario! Why isn't Elephant Mario in the movie?" type thing, they wanted the movie to have all the Mario spotlight to itself for the first half of the year. Of course you have to have a new Mario game in a year you have the first (real) Mario movie, it's a monumental event for Nintendo.

The rest of the line up is actually a lot of remasters and C-tier franchise installments. Wario Ware? The last one didn't even hit 2 million in sales. The Detective Pikachu series that no one really cares that much about but somehow was turned into a Ryan Reynolds movie? The first game has to be one of the lowest selling Pokemon branded games ever at sub 1 million sales. Luigi's Mansion 2 3DS Remaster? Feels like the 3DS getting a Luigi's Mansion 1 port late in its life cycle. More Pikmin remasters? Mario RPG Remaster is cool for nostalgia but a 1 for 1 remake of an ancient game that is likely outsourced. A Princess Peach spin-off platformer for 2024, Nintendo did a Peach platformer for DS that sold like 1.3 million copies ... not exactly in development terms the cream of Nintendo's crop. Even Pikmin 4 while cool, this is not a big ticket franchise for Nintendo, its sales peak is like 2.3 million copies. 

It looks like basically like a lineup you'd expect for a last year Nintendo console transitioning to a new one next year when there's no handheld/home console split.

What would you consider a good year? I mean you have totk and a 2d mario thats a very strong year for nintendo, 2 massive sellers, plus the other's you mentioned  that could be hit since nintendo ip's are just on fire lately.



The_Liquid_Laser on 21 June 2023
Slownenberg said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Now that we know a new 2D Mario is on the way, in the same year that the Mario Movie exploded onto screens, I've got to change my opinion.  I think Switch 2 is more likely to release in 2025 instead of 2024 now.

I'm starting to go back to maybe next gen not coming out until possibly Spring 2025 now instead of Spring - Holiday 2024.

After seeing all these games that are come out, and thinking about how TotK has boosted Switch sales for a solid month and still going (something nobody expected), and how popular the Mario movie was and we've got 2D Mario, Super Mario RPG remake, Luigi's Mansion 3DS remake, and a Princess Peach game all coming to the Switch, makes me think Switch sales might sustain a bit more strength than the direction it looked to be going earlier in the year. Of course momentum could quickly swing down again, as it seemed to do last year and early this year. But I'm thinking the Mario movie maybe just created a few million young kids who are going to be asking for Switch and Mario Wonder for Christmas this year.

At least I'm starting to think a later 2024 launch is definitely more likely than a June/July 2024 launch which is what I had been favoring lately. I mean Nintendo just announced a few games for Switch in 2024, so unless those games are coming out in the first few months of the year, the successor probably ain't launching until second half of the year at least.

I'd only see a 2025 launch date happening though if Nintendo has some big games lined up for holiday 2024. Otherwise, they wouldn't want to sacrifice low holiday sales just to give the Switch an 8th holiday season. But we still haven't had mention of DK or Prime 4. So very possible those get released for Switch holiday 2024, along with maybe another Pokemon - another Legends game maybe, or another 3D remake? I think that'd be enough to have a solid holiday season in 2024 and push successor launch off until March 2025. If that's the case, I could see Nintendo teasing the next gen system in Fall 2024 as coming in 2025, and then in early January, just after the holiday season, they actually announce it with details for like a late March release so that they can pick up the launch week or two of sales before the fiscal year is out, while still giving people 2+ months to get ready for the system.

I basically agree with what you are saying here.  I think the earliest they could launch the next system now is Holiday 2024.  They've got to give this 2D Mario game time to sell.  

I am leaning more toward 2025 though, but I am not ruling out holiday 2024.  If they wanted to they could do the exact thing they are doing with Super Mario RPG: take old and popular games and give them an HD remake treatment.  If they pick a big enough title(s), then that is enough for a holiday 2024 game.  Here are some ideas: Ocarina of Time, Super Metroid, DKC (1 or all 3), A Link to the Past (only or all 3 NES/SNES Zeldas), etc....  If you combine this with the new Princess Peach game, Metroid Prime 4, a possible Tomodachi game and any other smaller games that they want to make (e.g. Fire Emblem), then they can release enough games in 2024 to release the next system in 2025.  

The main question is they "do they want to do that"?  Only Nintendo knows the answer to that question.  They have the ability to launch the system in 2025, but they also might choose holiday 2024.  I can't seem Switch 2 coming out earlier than holiday 2024 though.



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Soundwave on 21 June 2023
zeldaring said:
Soundwave said:

A Mario game for the holidays of the same year they launched the Mario movie was always a given, I've been saying it for months on this board, even right down to them not wanting to show it before the Mario movie because you don't want kids doing the whole "I saw the new Mario game has Elephant Mario! Why isn't Elephant Mario in the movie?" type thing, they wanted the movie to have all the Mario spotlight to itself for the first half of the year. Of course you have to have a new Mario game in a year you have the first (real) Mario movie, it's a monumental event for Nintendo.

The rest of the line up is actually a lot of remasters and C-tier franchise installments. Wario Ware? The last one didn't even hit 2 million in sales. The Detective Pikachu series that no one really cares that much about but somehow was turned into a Ryan Reynolds movie? The first game has to be one of the lowest selling Pokemon branded games ever at sub 1 million sales. Luigi's Mansion 2 3DS Remaster? Feels like the 3DS getting a Luigi's Mansion 1 port late in its life cycle. More Pikmin remasters? Mario RPG Remaster is cool for nostalgia but a 1 for 1 remake of an ancient game that is likely outsourced. A Princess Peach spin-off platformer for 2024, Nintendo did a Peach platformer for DS that sold like 1.3 million copies ... not exactly in development terms the cream of Nintendo's crop. Even Pikmin 4 while cool, this is not a big ticket franchise for Nintendo, its sales peak is like 2.3 million copies. 

It looks like basically like a lineup you'd expect for a last year Nintendo console transitioning to a new one next year when there's no handheld/home console split.

What would you consider a good year? I mean you have totk and a 2d mario thats a very strong year for nintendo, 2 massive sellers, plus the other's you mentioned  that could be hit since nintendo ip's are just on fire lately.

I'm saying look at the release schedule outside of Mario Wonder which was a given with the movie coming this year. The rest of the lineup does kinda scream "we're winding this down". All C-tier franchises and remasters/remakes, right down to a port of Luigi's Mansion 2, just as 3DS got a port of Luigi's Mansion 1 as kind of a filler title to take the system out to pasture. 

I think Switch will still continue to have some bigger game releases via cross-gen releases (in some cases) with Switch 2, but it does seem like they're starting to wind things down. 

And frankly, no one can really complain about the Switch's library, unless you live and die with Star Fox and F-Zero, in which case, the last Nintendo system you liked was the N64. 

Hopefully we can still get F-Zero GX Remastered for next year as a shadow drop like Metroid Prime Remastered, I'd definitely love that.