By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close
Slownenberg on 21 June 2023
Edit Thread
The_Liquid_Laser said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

You can tell when Nintendo is about to release a successor based on their software schedule.  The first party releases the year before a handheld system is replaced look like several small to medium-ish titles plus one really big title (usually Pokemon).  So far that is what it looks like this year with Zelda being the lone really big title.  Based on what we know so far it looks like Switch is releasing in 2024.

However, it doesn't necessarily have to be this way.  If they have a Summer Direct announcing big titles for the second half of the year, then they are pushing the Switch 2 release back to 2025 or 2026.  However, last year their Summer Direct was only a Partner Direct and had no first party titles.

Basically, I'm saying that 2024 is the most like date for the Switch 2 to launch, but we have to see what the next Direct holds to be sure.

Now that we know a new 2D Mario is on the way, in the same year that the Mario Movie exploded onto screens, I've got to change my opinion.  I think Switch 2 is more likely to release in 2025 instead of 2024 now.

I'm starting to go back to maybe next gen not coming out until possibly Spring 2025 now instead of Spring - Holiday 2024.

After seeing all these games that are come out, and thinking about how TotK has boosted Switch sales for a solid month and still going (something nobody expected), and how popular the Mario movie was and we've got 2D Mario, Super Mario RPG remake, Luigi's Mansion 3DS remake, and a Princess Peach game all coming to the Switch, makes me think Switch sales might sustain a bit more strength than the direction it looked to be going earlier in the year. Of course momentum could quickly swing down again, as it seemed to do last year and early this year. But I'm thinking the Mario movie maybe just created a few million young kids who are going to be asking for Switch and Mario Wonder for Christmas this year.

At least I'm starting to think a later 2024 launch is definitely more likely than a June/July 2024 launch which is what I had been favoring lately. I mean Nintendo just announced a few games for Switch in 2024, so unless those games are coming out in the first few months of the year, the successor probably ain't launching until second half of the year at least.

I'd only see a 2025 launch date happening though if Nintendo has some big games lined up for holiday 2024. Otherwise, they wouldn't want to sacrifice low holiday sales just to give the Switch an 8th holiday season. But we still haven't had mention of DK or Prime 4. So very possible those get released for Switch holiday 2024, along with maybe another Pokemon - another Legends game maybe, or another 3D remake? I think that'd be enough to have a solid holiday season in 2024 and push successor launch off until March 2025. If that's the case, I could see Nintendo teasing the next gen system in Fall 2024 as coming in 2025, and then in early January, just after the holiday season, they actually announce it with details for like a late March release so that they can pick up the launch week or two of sales before the fiscal year is out, while still giving people 2+ months to get ready for the system.