If Nintendo waits a long time for a Switch successor, what do you think will happen?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Slownenberg said:

The_Liquid_Laser said:

Now that we know a new 2D Mario is on the way, in the same year that the Mario Movie exploded onto screens, I've got to change my opinion.  I think Switch 2 is more likely to release in 2025 instead of 2024 now.

I'm starting to go back to maybe next gen not coming out until possibly Spring 2025 now instead of Spring - Holiday 2024.

After seeing all these games that are come out, and thinking about how TotK has boosted Switch sales for a solid month and still going (something nobody expected), and how popular the Mario movie was and we've got 2D Mario, Super Mario RPG remake, Luigi's Mansion 3DS remake, and a Princess Peach game all coming to the Switch, makes me think Switch sales might sustain a bit more strength than the direction it looked to be going earlier in the year. Of course momentum could quickly swing down again, as it seemed to do last year and early this year. But I'm thinking the Mario movie maybe just created a few million young kids who are going to be asking for Switch and Mario Wonder for Christmas this year.

At least I'm starting to think a later 2024 launch is definitely more likely than a June/July 2024 launch which is what I had been favoring lately. I mean Nintendo just announced a few games for Switch in 2024, so unless those games are coming out in the first few months of the year, the successor probably ain't launching until second half of the year at least.

I'd only see a 2025 launch date happening though if Nintendo has some big games lined up for holiday 2024. Otherwise, they wouldn't want to sacrifice low holiday sales just to give the Switch an 8th holiday season. But we still haven't had mention of DK or Prime 4. So very possible those get released for Switch holiday 2024, along with maybe another Pokemon - another Legends game maybe, or another 3D remake? I think that'd be enough to have a solid holiday season in 2024 and push successor launch off until March 2025. If that's the case, I could see Nintendo teasing the next gen system in Fall 2024 as coming in 2025, and then in early January, just after the holiday season, they actually announce it with details for like a late March release so that they can pick up the launch week or two of sales before the fiscal year is out, while still giving people 2+ months to get ready for the system.

I basically agree with what you are saying here.  I think the earliest they could launch the next system now is Holiday 2024.  They've got to give this 2D Mario game time to sell.  

I am leaning more toward 2025 though, but I am not ruling out holiday 2024.  If they wanted to they could do the exact thing they are doing with Super Mario RPG: take old and popular games and give them an HD remake treatment.  If they pick a big enough title(s), then that is enough for a holiday 2024 game.  Here are some ideas: Ocarina of Time, Super Metroid, DKC (1 or all 3), A Link to the Past (only or all 3 NES/SNES Zeldas), etc....  If you combine this with the new Princess Peach game, Metroid Prime 4, a possible Tomodachi game and any other smaller games that they want to make (e.g. Fire Emblem), then they can release enough games in 2024 to release the next system in 2025.  

The main question is they "do they want to do that"?  Only Nintendo knows the answer to that question.  They have the ability to launch the system in 2025, but they also might choose holiday 2024.  I can't seem Switch 2 coming out earlier than holiday 2024 though.