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I think Switch 2 will release 2025. I think Nintendo could still get by with the Switch in 2024 with smaller franchises that haven't gotten representation on the Switch yet, possibly a Kid Icarus game,Star Fox,F-Zero remaster,ect... I also think Game Freak could pump out one more major Pokemon game as the Holiday 2024 title before Nintendo shifts focus to Switch 2 2025. However, I still believe Switch in general will keep getting 1st party Nintendo games possibly til 2027 even after the Switch 2 releases to keep the OG Switch as a safety net in case the Switch 2 underperforms. However, after 2D Mario its hard for me to see an A-tier games outside of Pokemon release exclusively on Switch 1.