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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Update: Leaker says the new Switch model he teased is next-gen, not a revision, Q1 2024 release

If that were the case they would save Zelda for the holiday so no.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

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If the leaks are true, it probably won't be a Switch Pro unless Switch 2 doesn't come out at until at least Holiday 2025, or probably beyond.
There's almost no way Nintendo would release Switch Pro in Q3/Q4 2023 and then release Switch 2 in 2024 or the first half of 2025. It's a waste of R&D and anti-consumer if you ask me.
Switch 2 releasing in the autumn or holiday season is not likely. We likely would've heard way more leaks by now. A dev kit, OS, specs, or launch titles would've been things that probably would've leaked.
I don't think we'll get a Switch Pro or successor in 2023.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

The logic that this suggests a Switch 2 is flawed, because "no Switch Pro" is based on the very same sources that were damn sure that Switch Pro was coming in 2021. No idea why the source that got the Pokémon stuff right should suddenly be discredited while the guys who got it wrong are deemed more trustworthy.

Business-wise, and as I've said a bunch of times before, there's no sense in replacing such a highly profitable as Switch so soon, but there's a lot of sense in prolonging its life. Machine translation may not be reliable, but at the very least it should be able to distinguish between singular and plural of nouns, so the wording "new Switch models" rules out a successor anyway. But the wording makes sense for upgraded hybrid and handheld-only models, plus it also makes sense in combination with the Bloomberg rumor that Nintendo intends to increase Switch production for the upcoming fiscal year.

The thread title should be changed.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

The Nvidia Drake model (T239) that's been leaked (also by a leaker who's gotten multiple things correct) and is listed as NVN2 in an Nvidia leak (NVN is Nvidia's internal firmware name for the Nintendo Switch) is way too powerful for a "Pro" model. That thing is like 6-8x more powerful than the current Switch.

That said I doubt hardware this year. Furukawa said point blank he doesn't think hardware initiatives will boost Switch sales this year, that seems like a weird thing to say if you're launch new hardware.

This leak could be correct and still be a 2024 product as this Pokemon DLC runs through April 2024.

Last edited by Soundwave - on 27 February 2023



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Whether the leak is right or not, it seems like the right time for new hardware. Pretty much all of their A tier franchises, and most of their B tier franchises have launched on the Switch. While they sometimes do release sequels on the same console (Totk, Mario Galaxy 2, Skyward Sword), Nintendo generally tries to keep its major franchises limited to one entry per system. That way when the next entries come out for new hardware, it's been long enough to get excited for it. I think if they did it this year while they still have a lot of momentum, that would be a great choice. Better than trying to wring out every bit of life from the Switch and launching with less positive momentum.



Soundwave said:

The Nvidia Drake model (T239) that's been leaked (also by a leaker who's gotten multiple things correct) and is listed as NVN2 in an Nvidia leak (NVN is Nvidia's internal firmware name for the Nintendo Switch) is way too powerful for a "Pro" model. That thing is like 6-8x more powerful than the current Switch.

That said I doubt hardware this year. Furukawa said point blank he doesn't think hardware initiatives will boost Switch sales this year, that seems like a weird thing to say if you're launch new hardware.

This leak could be correct and still be a 2024 product as this Pokemon DLC runs through April 2024.

Come on, you posted the exact quote yourself. He said "hardware-related initiatives alone" which came surprisingly in response to a question that software-related initiatives alone most likely won't be enough to keep the Switch business steady. Overall, it was a rather ambiguous answer, but that's to be expected, because new hardware will only be announced at the exact time Nintendo sees fit.

Nintendo will not merely release new games in the upcoming fiscal year, nor will they merely launch a new Switch model without any new games alongside it. So most likely, they'll do both.

As for the level of processing power, there's no limit to how much more powerful a Pro model can be, just like there's no limit to how small an increase in processing power can be from one generation to the next one. So that was a pointless thought of yours.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:

The logic that this suggests a Switch 2 is flawed, because "no Switch Pro" is based on the very same sources that were damn sure that Switch Pro was coming in 2021. No idea why the source that got the Pokémon stuff right should suddenly be discredited while the guys who got it wrong are deemed more trustworthy.

Business-wise, and as I've said a bunch of times before, there's no sense in replacing such a highly profitable as Switch so soon, but there's a lot of sense in prolonging its life. Machine translation may not be reliable, but at the very least it should be able to distinguish between singular and plural of nouns, so the wording "new Switch models" rules out a successor anyway. But the wording makes sense for upgraded hybrid and handheld-only models, plus it also makes sense in combination with the Bloomberg rumor that Nintendo intends to increase Switch production for the upcoming fiscal year.

The thread title should be changed.

Digital Foundry is typically trustworthy though. They claim they spoke with multiple sources at game studios (presumably studios which typically partner with Nintendo and would be in the know) who all told them Switch Pro had been cancelled in favor of a Switch successor. While this could be a more powerful Switch Pro model, a Holiday 2023 release for a Switch Pro seems very late in the generation to me considering Switch will turn 7 years old in March 2024, a Switch Pro releasing this late in a generation would at most have 2 years of sales before a Switch 2 is released around Holiday 2025-March 2026, so I doubt very many would be willing to shell out a likely $350 or more on a system that may only last them 2 years. If Nintendo was going to do a Switch Pro, it needed to release in place of the Switch OLED back in 2021 imo, not in late 2023. 

On top of that, the Nvidia Switch chipset that leaked and was confirmed to be real by an Nvidia employee, is far too powerful for a mere Pro console, we're talking like 8x the graphical power of Switch 1 if I recall the specs correctly. A Pro console would surely be at most 4x as powerful as the base Switch. It's not cost effective to release a hugely powerful Switch Pro when most devs are going to take the lazy route and only use a higher resolution, rather than upgrading other graphical settings like textures, shadows, anti-aliasing, etc. with all of that extra power.

Soundwave also brought up a good point about the fact that the live-service schedule for DLC 2 will run from it's likely release in December all the way until probably April, so the Switch 2 and the Scarlet/Violet graphics update could release later in the live-service cycle around March or April 2024 and the Pokemon leaker would still be right. 

I will edit the title to say that it could be either a Switch 2 or a Switch Pro though.

Last edited by shikamaru317 - on 27 February 2023

Soundwave said:

The Nvidia Drake model (T239) that's been leaked (also by a leaker who's gotten multiple things correct) and is listed as NVN2 in an Nvidia leak (NVN is Nvidia's internal firmware name for the Nintendo Switch) is way too powerful for a "Pro" model. That thing is like 6-8x more powerful than the current Switch.

That said I doubt hardware this year. Furukawa said point blank he doesn't think hardware initiatives will boost Switch sales this year, that seems like a weird thing to say if you're launch new hardware.

This leak could be correct and still be a 2024 product as this Pokemon DLC runs through April 2024.

When exactly did he say this? He may not have been talking about calendar year, as I believe Nintendo's FY starts and ends in March. 



JWeinCom said:
Soundwave said:

The Nvidia Drake model (T239) that's been leaked (also by a leaker who's gotten multiple things correct) and is listed as NVN2 in an Nvidia leak (NVN is Nvidia's internal firmware name for the Nintendo Switch) is way too powerful for a "Pro" model. That thing is like 6-8x more powerful than the current Switch.

That said I doubt hardware this year. Furukawa said point blank he doesn't think hardware initiatives will boost Switch sales this year, that seems like a weird thing to say if you're launch new hardware.

This leak could be correct and still be a 2024 product as this Pokemon DLC runs through April 2024.

When exactly did he say this? He may not have been talking about calendar year, as I believe Nintendo's FY starts and ends in March. 

He said this in the investor's Q&A like last week when asked if they had plans outside of just software to boost existing Switch sales (which is basically asking are you planning to cut the price here or release new hardware or what?)

Q: Considering the unit sales results for the current fiscal year, it seems like it will be difficult to
stop the slowdown in hardware sales just by releasing new software. Are you planning any
specific measures for next fiscal year?

A: Nintendo Switch will soon mark its seventh year since launch. Ideally, we would like to
maintain unit sales volume next fiscal year at the same scale as this fiscal year. However, looking
back at the holiday season, our results were affected in part by external factors like the change
in consumer behavior caused by inflation and the diversification of entertainment choices due

to the resumption of economic activity. Especially in overseas markets, it was more of a
challenge for Nintendo Switch to be seen by consumers as their first choice of entertainment.
Sales have been steady entering the fourth quarter, but in the Nintendo Switch’s seventh
year, it might be hard to increase unit sales with hardware-related initiatives alone. That is
my candid impression.

That seems like a weird answer to give when you are releasing new hardware to boost sales. Unless he considers Switch 2 a completely different product line or something.