Updated my spreadsheet. The usual slight rounding errors apply in case someone wonders why a few numbers are off by 0.01m.

The OLED model has established itself as the most desired Switch SKU, so the original Switch may get phased out before it surpasses the 100m mark. Switch Lite continues to tread water, so it will likely be surpassed by the OLED during the calendar year 2023.

Yea I think now it's finally starting to hit Nintendo that the Switch is beginning to reach saturation and that shortages aren't the issue anymore.Based on what Nintendo's been stating, I think they're gonna be in the "wait and see" mode for the first half of 2022 and see how Mario Movie and Zelda TOTK will influence Switch sales first before they start hinting at any successor. Nintendo wasn't hinting at new hardware at all in their Q&A meeting and acknowledged that its unlikely switch sales will rebound, but they don't want to hint at any new hardware yet cause a huge game Zelda TOTK still has yet to release. However, once Zelda releases and the hype for the game dies down, Nintendo might begin to completely switch their focus to the Switch 2 as early as early 2023. We will have to see.

Nintendo also backed out on saying that the Switch has "plenty of life" ahead of it which is definitely interesting since they kept reinforcing it in their previous QA meetings, so I think Nintendo knows that the end is near for Switch but they're just waiting for TOTK to launch first.

In the end, Nintendo is still the decider of when they'll truly be switching gear, be it a year from now, or two, three years even. Fact is despite the lower sales, from another perspective it is still banging in comparison to what other system would've done at the time and also has another good year of strong releases so the consumer won't simply jump ship as suddenly as some might like to believe.

For now there's no hurry from them seemingly, since there has been no rumor or real noises about a successor, meaning Nintendo still feel strongly about the console in itself. 

Nintendo wasn't asked about next generation hardware in the meeting, so you can't say they backed out of saying that Switch has plenty of life left in it. It simply wasn't a question anymore whether or not Switch would have a longer lifecycle before replacement than the usual six years, because we are only one month away from hitting six years and there's no replacement in sight.

The more telling answer was the one to pricing of hardware and software going forward, to which Nintendo responded that there will be no change to keeping the value of the products high. This in turn means that Nintendo will accept lower hardware sales in 2023 in exchange for keeping profits high. There was more emphasis on selling a lot of software rather than trying to sell as many hardware units as possible.

How Nintendo really thinks about the lifespan of Switch can be derived from their software lineup in 2023. They didn't bother to announce anything beyond July, nor did the gaps between individual first party releases get bigger up till that point. In the past the timing of first party releases got more spaced out the closer we got to the launch of next gen hardware, so it's fair to conclude that a focus on the successor isn't happening within the next 12 months.

There will be no talk of a successor this year if it's not actually coming this year, which it doesn't look like. 2024 is when they'll announce, reveal, and release all in probably a short period of time if 2024 is the year.

There's just no point in losing sales for no great reason. They could announce the NX early because the Wii U was effectively dying already, it wasn't going to make one huge difference at that point either way, it's different when you still have a platform that's still selling.

What you *might* get is dev leaks this year, they have to send out dev kits at some point so that could be something that leaks out.

My guess if its 2024 is something like a March 2024 reveal, August-September 2024 launch.

Hardware releases are planned years in advance, and games take time to make, so both the successor and it's games are likely pretty far along at this point.
Normally we would've seen the next 3D Mario by now; it's been over 5 years since Odyssey. I wouldn't be surprised if they're holding that back for Switch 2.

Previously, Nintendo systems often had very lean years leading up to replacement, but this seems to have been alleviated this time by the fact they only have one hardware line now. In 2011 for example, Nintendo was having to develop for 4 systems; Wii, Wii U, DS, and 3DS, now they only have to develop for Switch and Switch 2.
This year's emphasis on DLC and the lack of any big new games at the recent Direct suggest that things are beginning to wind down, just more gracefully than we are used to; a SNES to N64 type transition rather than Wii to Wii U or Wii U to Switch.

If the Switch 2 launches in March 2024 or 2025 I can see Mario Odyssey 2 or whatever the next 3D Mario game will be as the big launch title and Mario Kart 9 as the big holiday release, along with a few medium first-party releases. Will we see a new Pokémon in its first holiday? 

If there isn't a new Mario game for fall 2023 at least, something is definitely up, they are probably purposefully sitting on a near completed game for the next system or something has gone wonky in the development or they're doing something crazy with it (VR?).

I just can't see them releasing the Mario movie and then not having a Mario game this year, but stranger things have happened.

EAD Tokyo is way too quiet and it's been way too many years since they've released a game.

I am super bummed because I love Odyssey so much... and it sold so well I would have thought Nintendo would have done the same they did with Galaxy... 
But if the next 3D Mario is saved for the successor, I feel like it won't have Odyssey mechanics, it will be something new. 

Doesn't Nintendo (also assuming Sony and M$ do the same) start working on the next generation system once the current gen starts? Meaning when Switch launched Nintendo already started working on their next system.