DS is unlikely to be passed in my opinion as the Switch is starting to reach saturation and slow with age.
2022 was 5 million less than 2021, I expect a similar drop this year so 14 million or so for 2023 seems probable. After this year it will peter out.

And honestly, that's fine. Reaching #3 of all time and topping 140 million lifetime is a great achievement, there's no shame in not quite beating the #2 system of all time, especially as DS reached insanely low prices which the Switch never will and existed in a fundamentally different market environment.

@curl-6 I agree completely. Switch is still a success but the DS had more in its favor. At least if the Switch successor is successful that can outweigh Switch not passing DS.

I can actually see Switch squeaking past 150m. Should be close to 140m by the end of this year.

I think it will get past 150 million for sure unless Nintendo like literally stops making them past 2024 for some reason.

But I do think the successor is coming next year too. Nintendo got used to the sweet, sweet high end profit margins of the last 3 years, they're not going to be content with going to back to selling "only" 8-15 million units a year with the number declining every year. The only way to do hold that off at this point is with a hardware successor unless the Mario movie becomes like some kind of Titanic/Avatar sized hit that just drives hardware sales forever, but that's probably asking for the moon. 

Yeah 2024 would be the right time for Switch 2 in my book, early 2024 preferably, that window worked well for the Switch and you don't want to wait too long once decline sets in in earnest, or you risk your brand's appeal wearing off and a big drop in profits in the interim.

140 is a little too high in my opinion, saturation is starting to kick in hard, I'd expect more in the area of 136 million personally. 

But yeah, the DS definitely had more in its favour, living most of its life before smartphones devoured much of the casual market, and selling at very low prices. Switch has neither luxury, so its incredible that it is has sold as well as it has.

@curl-6 I was actually thinking about 138 million, which is why I said close to 140m by the end of the year. Either way, I do expect every quarter this year to be down compared to 2022.

It's true that the DS did have all those advantages. The Switch actually had some advantages of its own, being that it can be a handheld/home console and it was the only system Nintendo supported this generation (meaning resources weren't split). Still, the DS had better advantages than the Switch.

I feel like early 2024 is too early because I feel that means the system would be announced this year. I think the system should be released the same year it is announced. That being said, that doesn't mean they have to wait until November. Honestly, I hope they don't want that long. A summer or September release would probably be most ideal. We already know that diehards will buy the system day 1, so there's no reason to release during the holidays.

I feel like waiting til late 2024 would be tempting fate; right now the Switch brand is associated with a system overflowing with games, but as both first and third parties transition away from the hardware, things could get quite dry in terms of software next year which could really hurt the brand and ruin its positive image.

An announcement in February or March 2024 with a release over the summer wouldn't be too far into the future though.

Do you think they will officially announce the successor this year?

I honestly have no clue what they will do in reality, I just think they should release it sooner rather than later, so that perception of the Switch brand doesn't sour as support winds down, and make people less inclined to pick up the successor.

I agree too. I just don't want them to rush it out like they did when transitioning from DS to 3DS. An announcement this time next year wouldn't be too bad, honestly.

Do you think the switch can sell more than the ps2?