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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Sales Update: (To 30th June 2022) Switch at 111.08m shipped

Dang Kirby killin it. Ring Fit top 10 and looking to take 8th place soon! Switch Sports sold decent, I guess good considering the lackluster effort Nintendo has put into all their sports games on Switch. Switch Sports probably won't be the 20 million seller it could have been but almost five million in just over two months suggests it should at least sail past 10 million.

Hardware sales slowing but still crushing every year except 2020 and 2021.



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Honest question: How does Super Mario Party keep selling if apparently nobody likes it? I mean I liked it, but the general consensus seems to be that it's bad or at least not as good as other games.



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Runa216 said:

Honest question: How does Super Mario Party keep selling if apparently nobody likes it? I mean I liked it, but the general consensus seems to be that it's bad or at least not as good as other games.

Depends on what you compare it to. Some considered it a return to form for the series upon release and I think most agree that it's at least a step up from 9 and 10, which would make it the best Mario Party in a decade at the time. But yea opinions were definitely still mixed, and while it's still selling pretty impressively for a 4 year old game, you can also clearly tell that sales have started to slow down in the last 2 quarters after Superstars.



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Runa216 said:

Honest question: How does Super Mario Party keep selling if apparently nobody likes it? I mean I liked it, but the general consensus seems to be that it's bad or at least not as good as other games.

The is often a difference between the opinion of the loud minority online and the actual perception from the wider market outside that minority. 



Damn animal crossing nearly 40 million which is impressive!



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I’ve been reading some stock market analysts talk about the Switch, they’re raising fucking alarm bells about the sales slump of the Switch, saying all kinds of nonsense like chip shortages and Corona Virus bumps… not one of them mentioning how old the Switch is at this point. I mean, the thing’s nearing grandfather age at this point. I’m not sure if Nintendo messaged them and confused these silly bastards, or if these stock analyst chuckleheads are still somehow clueless when it comes to tech-cycles… You know? something we’ve seen on every console released since the Gameboy. And even that was a bit of a fucking anomaly given the Pokémon phenomenon.

It hurts my head thinking about how fucking inept the stock analyst industry must be to allow this sort of trash to get through the filters.

(Note, I’m not angry, I just like to use the word fuck a lot… it’s a great word for emphasis. Sometimes I forget to write it… it’s or I’ll be on the front page and use some discretion because there might be people’s idiot children reading… the age-demo that wouldn’t dream of writing or reading forums. Also, I had some edibles a bit back. You know how it is.)



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Jumpin said:

I’ve been reading some stock market analysts talk about the Switch, they’re raising fucking alarm bells about the sales slump of the Switch, saying all kinds of nonsense like chip shortages and Corona Virus bumps… not one of them mentioning how old the Switch is at this point. I mean, the thing’s nearing grandfather age at this point. I’m not sure if Nintendo messaged them and confused these silly bastards, or if these stock analyst chuckleheads are still somehow clueless when it comes to tech-cycles… You know? something we’ve seen on every console released since the Gameboy. And even that was a bit of a fucking anomaly given the Pokémon phenomenon.

It hurts my head thinking about how fucking inept the stock analyst industry must be to allow this sort of trash to get through the filters.

(Note, I’m not angry, I just like to use the word fuck a lot… it’s a great word for emphasis. Sometimes I forget to write it… it’s or I’ll be on the front page and use some discretion because there might be people’s idiot children reading… the age-demo that wouldn’t dream of writing or reading forums. Also, I had some edibles a bit back. You know how it is.)

It's not a surprise if you've worked in finance especially in a sector that dealt with investments, I can tell you first hand most are clueless and it's well known in finance that around 95% of people lose money on trades because of it, what you read may even be an analyst banking on that in order to cause the market to lower the price before their clients can jump on before it returns to normal.

Last edited by Wyrdness - on 04 August 2022

RolStoppable said:

Spreadsheet updated.

Global hardware declined by almost 25% year over year, but global software by less than 10%. There are regional differences: Japan's hardware is down by ~35%, software by less than 1%; Americas' hardware down by almost 20%, software by more than 20%; Europe's hardware up by 2%, software the same; Other's hardware down by 45%, software up by almost 30%. Other is certainly a victim of the component shortages, because the other regions will be priorities for Nintendo. The regional differences in software shipments are owned to the software lineup where America got the short end of the stick this time around.

With component shortages expected to ease up and a strong fall lineup, Nintendo shouldn't have too much problems to match their forecasts for this fiscal year. Hardware is notably down for the first quarter in comparison to the previous two years, but still notably above the 2019 level which finished as a 21m year, so the same as this fiscal year's forecast.

Switch hardware should be up year over year for this current quarter, 3.83 million is the number to beat which is only 400K above this past "mediocre" quarter.

with all the things going for it from July to September it should sell 4 million in the current quarter.

Calendar year Shipments

Last edited by ShadowLink93 - on 05 August 2022

With both Splatoon 3, open world Pokemon, and expected supply improvements for the rest of the year, the next two calendar quarters could potentially both beat 2021, though calendar Q4 is a longer shot than Q3.

It currently leads 2019 by 7.54m to 4.6m, a gap of 2.94m which should provide a buffer against the launch of the Lite and the system's first Pokemon in the latter half of 2019.



RolStoppable said:

Spreadsheet updated.

Global hardware declined by almost 25% year over year, but global software by less than 10%. There are regional differences: Japan's hardware is down by ~35%, software by less than 1%; Americas' hardware down by almost 20%, software by more than 20%; Europe's hardware up by 2%, software the same; Other's hardware down by 45%, software up by almost 30%. Other is certainly a victim of the component shortages, because the other regions will be priorities for Nintendo. The regional differences in software shipments are owned to the software lineup where America got the short end of the stick this time around.

With component shortages expected to ease up and a strong fall lineup, Nintendo shouldn't have too much problems to match their forecasts for this fiscal year. Hardware is notably down for the first quarter in comparison to the previous two years, but still notably above the 2019 level which finished as a 21m year, so the same as this fiscal year's forecast.

As I said in the last quarter thread, I full expect Nintendo to not meet their HW target, but easily beat their SW target. Already 1m down YoY when they did 23m last year. So if just one more quarter is down 1m YoY they will already have a tough time meeting their target.

Last year all quarters were down a significant amount. .6m, .9m, 1.2m, and 3m.

In all honestly though Nintendo has Pokemon and Splatoon 3 to keep those quarters close to even, it will be Q4 that will be significantly down without Botw2 or a price cut.

As a side note 2019 did 21m with the help of a 11m holiday, more than 50% of sales in one quarter. The only times they have achieved such a feat is with 2018 and 2019.