With the currently released and announced games the Switch will have at least 19 games with over 10mil sales.

Fixed

Switch Currently has 14 but the others you are referring to probably are:

Super Mario 3D World

Mario Party Superstars

Nintendo Switch Sports

Pokemon Scarlet/Violet

Breath of the Wild sequel

It would be great if Kirby ATFL could get there but i think it will top out at around 8 million.

That's exactly what I'm thinking.

What do you think the ceiling for Kirby ATFL is? It can crack 10 million if 2nd quarter sales are representative of it's legs going forward (better 2nd quarter sales than any Mario platformer on switch), but there is no precedent of any prior Kirby game having such strong legs so i still say it won't.

Mario Maker & Monster Hunter could also hit 10m.

By the way, that schedule calls Mario Maker "Super Maker Mario 2".

Forgot Splatoon 3, surely Splatoon 3 can sell 10 million. With Splatoon 2 selling 13.30m there would need to be a really big decline to not reach 10m.

Can't believe I forgot Splatoon 3, I somehow always do when it comes to sales talk despite being so excited about it. Of course it will sell over 10mil.

About Super Mario Maker 2, I think it can reach 10mil, but it's not guaranteed. Monster Hunter Rise should be able to reach 10mil, but we will likely never get an official announcement and we'll never know.

With Kirby it of course depends on it's legs. If it sells over 1mil in this current quarter then I'm inclined to say that it's very likely. But I doubt it will do so. It only shipped 1.88mil in the last quarter because the previous one only included it's first week.

Super Mario 3D World had a second quarter of over 1mil after launching in January and being overshipped according to Nintendo's sellthrough estimate back then. I think that might even be considered to be better legs. Unless Kirby sells over 1mil this quarter again. 8mil is my current expectation for Kirby.

I suppose this is the top 30 Switch games given the third party data that we have.  I strongly suspect that Minecraft and several Just Dance games would actually fit into the top 30 if we had the numbers.

I also forgot Splatoon 3. That game should also hit 10 million. Specifically, I could see it hitting 11-12 million worldwide (compared to Splatoon 2 probably ending around 16-17 million). I doubt Splatoon 3 will reach 10 million by the end of 2022 though (guessing it will be around 7 million by the end of 2022 though.