By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Quarterly Sales Update: (To 30th June 2022) Switch at 111.08m shipped

RolStoppable said:

Spreadsheet updated.

Global hardware declined by almost 25% year over year, but global software by less than 10%. There are regional differences: Japan's hardware is down by ~35%, software by less than 1%; Americas' hardware down by almost 20%, software by more than 20%; Europe's hardware up by 2%, software the same; Other's hardware down by 45%, software up by almost 30%. Other is certainly a victim of the component shortages, because the other regions will be priorities for Nintendo. The regional differences in software shipments are owned to the software lineup where America got the short end of the stick this time around.

With component shortages expected to ease up and a strong fall lineup, Nintendo shouldn't have too much problems to match their forecasts for this fiscal year. Hardware is notably down for the first quarter in comparison to the previous two years, but still notably above the 2019 level which finished as a 21m year, so the same as this fiscal year's forecast.

Switch hardware should be up year over year for this current quarter, 3.83 million is the number to beat which is only 400K above this past "mediocre" quarter.

with all the things going for it from July to September it should sell 4 million in the current quarter.

Calendar year Shipments

Last edited by ShadowLink93 - on 05 August 2022

Around the Network

With both Splatoon 3, open world Pokemon, and expected supply improvements for the rest of the year, the next two calendar quarters could potentially both beat 2021, though calendar Q4 is a longer shot than Q3.

It currently leads 2019 by 7.54m to 4.6m, a gap of 2.94m which should provide a buffer against the launch of the Lite and the system's first Pokemon in the latter half of 2019.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

RolStoppable said:

Spreadsheet updated.

Global hardware declined by almost 25% year over year, but global software by less than 10%. There are regional differences: Japan's hardware is down by ~35%, software by less than 1%; Americas' hardware down by almost 20%, software by more than 20%; Europe's hardware up by 2%, software the same; Other's hardware down by 45%, software up by almost 30%. Other is certainly a victim of the component shortages, because the other regions will be priorities for Nintendo. The regional differences in software shipments are owned to the software lineup where America got the short end of the stick this time around.

With component shortages expected to ease up and a strong fall lineup, Nintendo shouldn't have too much problems to match their forecasts for this fiscal year. Hardware is notably down for the first quarter in comparison to the previous two years, but still notably above the 2019 level which finished as a 21m year, so the same as this fiscal year's forecast.

As I said in the last quarter thread, I full expect Nintendo to not meet their HW target, but easily beat their SW target. Already 1m down YoY when they did 23m last year. So if just one more quarter is down 1m YoY they will already have a tough time meeting their target.

Last year all quarters were down a significant amount. .6m, .9m, 1.2m, and 3m.

In all honestly though Nintendo has Pokemon and Splatoon 3 to keep those quarters close to even, it will be Q4 that will be significantly down without Botw2 or a price cut.

As a side note 2019 did 21m with the help of a 11m holiday, more than 50% of sales in one quarter. The only times they have achieved such a feat is with 2018 and 2019.



Farsala said:

As I said in the last quarter thread, I full expect Nintendo to not meet their HW target, but easily beat their SW target. Already 1m down YoY when they did 23m last year. So if just one more quarter is down 1m YoY they will already have a tough time meeting their target.

Last year all quarters were down a significant amount. .6m, .9m, 1.2m, and 3m.

In all honestly though Nintendo has Pokemon and Splatoon 3 to keep those quarters close to even, it will be Q4 that will be significantly down without Botw2 or a price cut.

As a side note 2019 did 21m with the help of a 11m holiday, more than 50% of sales in one quarter. The only times they have achieved such a feat is with 2018 and 2019.

The issue is that FYQ2 (calendar year Q3) was very poor for Nintendo last year where they actually sold less than they did in 2019 and less than they did in the previous quarter. Typically, FYQ2 (calendar year Q3) is higher than both FYQ1 (Cal Q2) and FYQ4 (Cal Q1). Therefore, it's actually very likely that the Switch will match or exceed shipments from last year at this same point in time. In which case, the only quarters to worry about are the holiday season and the beginning of next year. With Nintendo expecting chip manufacturing to improve, I believe that they should be able to meet the beginning of next years goal without issue owing to increased shipments in the RotW regions with potentially BotW 2 scooping up some people in the west. I think that they will be slightly down over the holiday season, though. 

Basically, if they do miss their target, it won't be by much. 



Jumpin said:

I’ve been reading some stock market analysts talk about the Switch, they’re raising fucking alarm bells about the sales slump of the Switch, saying all kinds of nonsense like chip shortages and Corona Virus bumps… not one of them mentioning how old the Switch is at this point. I mean, the thing’s nearing grandfather age at this point. I’m not sure if Nintendo messaged them and confused these silly bastards, or if these stock analyst chuckleheads are still somehow clueless when it comes to tech-cycles… You know? something we’ve seen on every console released since the Gameboy. And even that was a bit of a fucking anomaly given the Pokémon phenomenon.

It hurts my head thinking about how fucking inept the stock analyst industry must be to allow this sort of trash to get through the filters.

(Note, I’m not angry, I just like to use the word fuck a lot… it’s a great word for emphasis. Sometimes I forget to write it… it’s or I’ll be on the front page and use some discretion because there might be people’s idiot children reading… the age-demo that wouldn’t dream of writing or reading forums. Also, I had some edibles a bit back. You know how it is.)

In reality, the Switch is forecasted to sell 21 Million Units in its 6th fiscal year which has never been done before by any console in history. The closest ones were the DS & PS4 both selling around 18 Million in their 6ht fiscal year, so even on the low end of that forecast, the Switch should still comfortably beat the PS4's & DS's 6th Fiscal Year which is crazy to see a console potentially sell 20 Million+ in its 6th Fiscal Year. The fact that investors & stock market analysts are freaking out about this is fucking stupid & don't understand the simple concept of a console's lifecycle. I'd expect at least a little more competency from these "analysts" who research this for a living but I guess not smh...



Around the Network

Switch's decline is actually quite gradual by console standards, especially for a Nintendo system. A 4th year peak and still aiming for 21m in Year 6, any investors freaking out over that are idiots. Did they also panic when PS4 was in decline in its 6th year? Or almost every other gaming system ever?

If you're going to invest in something, you should at least make an effort to learn the basics.

Oh, and Switch is on track to have the most software sold of any Nintendo system ever by the end of the year.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

Sure it's on pace to set a record for a 6th year console but they haven't even dropped the price yet and just released Xenoblade Chronicles 3. They only have Bayonetta 3, Mario and Rabbids 2, and Splatoon 3 left to release this year. Sure BOTW 2, Metroid Prime 4, and the inevitable Odyssey 2 are coming, but the Switch is doomed to repeat the tragedy that was the Nintendo DS, so please everybody sell your stock.



SuperJortendo said:

Sure it's on pace to set a record for a 6th year console but they haven't even dropped the price yet and just released Xenoblade Chronicles 3. They only have Bayonetta 3, Mario and Rabbids 2, and Splatoon 3 left to release this year. Sure BOTW 2, Metroid Prime 4, and the inevitable Odyssey 2 are coming, but the Switch is doomed to repeat the tragedy that was the Nintendo DS, so please everybody sell your stock.

Bruh, you forgot their biggest game this year... The new pokemon



我是广州人

Spawn wave mentioned a tidbit that was interesting: Nintendo Ceo: Even if we can produce the volume we want I am not optimistic we can sell it, Guidance calls for the next 9 months to sell 18 million.






konnichiwa said:

Spawn wave mentioned a tidbit that was interesting: Nintendo Ceo: Even if we can produce the volume we want I am not optimistic we can sell it, Guidance calls for the next 9 months to sell 18 million.

Said translation comes from Gibson and it doesn't make sense for Nintendo's CEO to say something like that.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments