The issue is that FYQ2 (calendar year Q3) was very poor for Nintendo last year where they actually sold less than they did in 2019 and less than they did in the previous quarter. Typically, FYQ2 (calendar year Q3) is higher than both FYQ1 (Cal Q2) and FYQ4 (Cal Q1). Therefore, it's actually very likely that the Switch will match or exceed shipments from last year at this same point in time. In which case, the only quarters to worry about are the holiday season and the beginning of next year. With Nintendo expecting chip manufacturing to improve, I believe that they should be able to meet the beginning of next years goal without issue owing to increased shipments in the RotW regions with potentially BotW 2 scooping up some people in the west. I think that they will be slightly down over the holiday season, though. 

Basically, if they do miss their target, it won't be by much. 

In reality, the Switch is forecasted to sell 21 Million Units in its 6th fiscal year which has never been done before by any console in history. The closest ones were the DS & PS4 both selling around 18 Million in their 6ht fiscal year, so even on the low end of that forecast, the Switch should still comfortably beat the PS4's & DS's 6th Fiscal Year which is crazy to see a console potentially sell 20 Million+ in its 6th Fiscal Year. The fact that investors & stock market analysts are freaking out about this is fucking stupid & don't understand the simple concept of a console's lifecycle. I'd expect at least a little more competency from these "analysts" who research this for a living but I guess not smh...

Switch's decline is actually quite gradual by console standards, especially for a Nintendo system. A 4th year peak and still aiming for 21m in Year 6, any investors freaking out over that are idiots. Did they also panic when PS4 was in decline in its 6th year? Or almost every other gaming system ever?

If you're going to invest in something, you should at least make an effort to learn the basics.

Oh, and Switch is on track to have the most software sold of any Nintendo system ever by the end of the year.

Sure it's on pace to set a record for a 6th year console but they haven't even dropped the price yet and just released Xenoblade Chronicles 3. They only have Bayonetta 3, Mario and Rabbids 2, and Splatoon 3 left to release this year. Sure BOTW 2, Metroid Prime 4, and the inevitable Odyssey 2 are coming, but the Switch is doomed to repeat the tragedy that was the Nintendo DS, so please everybody sell your stock.

Bruh, you forgot their biggest game this year... The new pokemon

Spawn wave mentioned a tidbit that was interesting: Nintendo Ceo: Even if we can produce the volume we want I am not optimistic we can sell it, Guidance calls for the next 9 months to sell 18 million.

That sounds right to me.  The announced the OLED in July last year, but they released it in October.  Consequently, sales were down quite a bit last year at this time in anticipation of the new model.  It should be easy for Switch to be up YoY for the current quarter.

Yeah Splatoon 3 should be enough to lift the Switch above this quarter last year, particularly with the special edition hardware tie-in/bundle, unless the expected improvements to supply don't materialize.

Switch Top 30 as of 30th June, 2022

Nintendo Published games above 10 million

This is as of June 30th.