| Farsala said: As I said in the last quarter thread, I full expect Nintendo to not meet their HW target, but easily beat their SW target. Already 1m down YoY when they did 23m last year. So if just one more quarter is down 1m YoY they will already have a tough time meeting their target. Last year all quarters were down a significant amount. .6m, .9m, 1.2m, and 3m. In all honestly though Nintendo has Pokemon and Splatoon 3 to keep those quarters close to even, it will be Q4 that will be significantly down without Botw2 or a price cut. As a side note 2019 did 21m with the help of a 11m holiday, more than 50% of sales in one quarter. The only times they have achieved such a feat is with 2018 and 2019. |
The issue is that FYQ2 (calendar year Q3) was very poor for Nintendo last year where they actually sold less than they did in 2019 and less than they did in the previous quarter. Typically, FYQ2 (calendar year Q3) is higher than both FYQ1 (Cal Q2) and FYQ4 (Cal Q1). Therefore, it's actually very likely that the Switch will match or exceed shipments from last year at this same point in time. In which case, the only quarters to worry about are the holiday season and the beginning of next year. With Nintendo expecting chip manufacturing to improve, I believe that they should be able to meet the beginning of next years goal without issue owing to increased shipments in the RotW regions with potentially BotW 2 scooping up some people in the west. I think that they will be slightly down over the holiday season, though.
Basically, if they do miss their target, it won't be by much.
