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RolStoppable said:

Spreadsheet updated.

Global hardware declined by almost 25% year over year, but global software by less than 10%. There are regional differences: Japan's hardware is down by ~35%, software by less than 1%; Americas' hardware down by almost 20%, software by more than 20%; Europe's hardware up by 2%, software the same; Other's hardware down by 45%, software up by almost 30%. Other is certainly a victim of the component shortages, because the other regions will be priorities for Nintendo. The regional differences in software shipments are owned to the software lineup where America got the short end of the stick this time around.

With component shortages expected to ease up and a strong fall lineup, Nintendo shouldn't have too much problems to match their forecasts for this fiscal year. Hardware is notably down for the first quarter in comparison to the previous two years, but still notably above the 2019 level which finished as a 21m year, so the same as this fiscal year's forecast.

As I said in the last quarter thread, I full expect Nintendo to not meet their HW target, but easily beat their SW target. Already 1m down YoY when they did 23m last year. So if just one more quarter is down 1m YoY they will already have a tough time meeting their target.

Last year all quarters were down a significant amount. .6m, .9m, 1.2m, and 3m.

In all honestly though Nintendo has Pokemon and Splatoon 3 to keep those quarters close to even, it will be Q4 that will be significantly down without Botw2 or a price cut.

As a side note 2019 did 21m with the help of a 11m holiday, more than 50% of sales in one quarter. The only times they have achieved such a feat is with 2018 and 2019.