hard to say…depends on if Metroid Prime 4 will be cross-gen. If it is, then I could see a reveal in February/March with launch in late-September. If it is not, then I don’t expect the system to be revealed until after the game has launched…which’ll prolly be in April/May. So June/July reveal with November launch seems plausible.

They could also just delay the reveal until 2026…NSW is still selling more every fiscal year than any year of literally any of their systems excluding Wii/DS/GBA.

You make a good point in that the Switch is still selling very well. But we cannot ignore it's their only system now. In previous generations a late gen low in home consoles could be compensated by handheld and visa versa. I personally think 2026 is to far away.

Switch sales aren't that strong anymore, with sales having been fairly weak everywhere other than Japan for the past 12 months now. Sales aren't crashing or anything, but with no second system to back up the company like they used to have, from a business perspective its gonna be pretty hard for them to keep having falling numbers in quarters again and again and again.

They are gonna want to get the successor out as soon as they can, but they still have some Switch games coming next year which will presumably come out before next gen launches. And the whole reason they pushed it back to 2025 was because their next gen games weren't going to be ready to go for this holiday season. So I don't think a March launch to emulate the Switch is likely. But waiting until late in the year just sets Nintendo up for a really weak first 2.5-3 quarters of the year in 2025 which they are definitely not going to want.

I think most likely we'll see a release right around June, right when kids are getting out of school for the Summer so that you have all these kids starting their break and wanting to spend the Summer playing the brand new Nintendo system.

little bit off-topic…but NSW only sold 0.3mil less than PS5 last quarter, and only a handful of other Nintendo systems have seen even a single year hit the fiscal projection of 13.5mil. Additionally, hardware sales haven’t been down quarter-after-quarter, but rather, saw an increase from Q4FY24 to Q1FY25, with sales expected to continue increasing in Q2 and Q3 corresponding to the launch of Zelda and holiday. You can’t really make much of an argument that figures are weak right now. They are certainly far less than FY21/22 where nearly 60mil units were moved, and so you could say they are weak relative to Switch norms…but not even remotely weak.

Given the recent reconfirmation of the announcement for the Switch 2 by end of fiscal year, and not doing it till November this year is pointing to announcement happening in the first quarter of the next year, with most likely release of somewhere in 2025. Give your vote on the renewed poll now, and opinion in the comments.

At this point Im expecting it to be anywhere between April & September 2025. Before March 2025 is nearly impossible, Nintendo hasn't shown a history to fully unveil a system then release with less than a 4 month gap from reveal to release, for that to still happen it would need to reveal the system like right now which is highly unlikely at this point with the holiday season right around the corner to push more Switch sales. Nintendo would likely wanna give at least a good few months between reveal to release to market the system properly for a great launch. Plus I'm sure Nintendo also has pressure to meet their sales forecast for current Switch and may not want a Switch 2 release to prevent that from happening.

Holiday 2025 is more possible than before March 2025, but I have a feeling that Nintendo won't want to wait that long to release the Switch 2. While Switch sales have still been amazing, they've been slowly dropping and many people, including maybe even Nintendo themselves, are feeling the need more than ever to move onto new hardware to generate excitement again and felt like having the system not release in 2024 was already pushing it a bit too much. 2024 tbh really had no A-tier franchises that'll sell millions of consoles, waiting til Holiday 2025 would almost feel like 2 years where Nintendo hasn't really pushed forward or made waves in the industry with the Switch getting more niche, smaller budget titles. I think it should be early than Holiday 2025.