3-4 million sales seems reasonable, considering we're not in the Wii days anymore.

I think Wii Sports is for multiple reasons not a good comparison, but Wii Sports Resorts is better. It sold 33M. Another good comparison is Ring Fit Adventure, which currently stands at 13M. I don't think Switch captures the same audience in that mass as the Wii did, remember that Wii Sports made it to normal articles outside of the gaming sphere. Switch hasn't that reach, so I think the game cannot sell as much as Wii Sports Resort did. Ring Fit Adventure is a good evolution of Wii Fit (which sold in two iteration over 40M). On the Pro side fro Switch Sports stands, that it doesn't need additional hardware it is bundled with (maybe the leg strap). So I think it can land in the same are as Ring Fit overall, which would be between 15M and 20M lifetime.

I think it could go up to 20M, but I don't think it can reach Wii Sports Resort sales numbers.

Put down 5-7M, seems about right to me

I think launching "late" will keep it from reaching anything too crazy. If it had launched back in 2017-2018 it could have been a go-to game for many casuals to get when they first pick up the console for several years, especially since the number of games was more limited back then, but I don't see quite as many going out to get it now.

It should still do decently well though. 10 mil+ seems entirely possible.

Over 20mil, anything lower and I riot, jk.
The people who predict so low here are going to eat crow. No one expected RFA to sell over 10mil and now it's going to top 15mil at that price.

Switch Sports is cheap and is likely going to be supported long term with more sports even after Golf.
The hype and nostalgia for it is big and it's charting very high at various retailers right now. Why would this launch several times lower than Kirby? 500k is way to low imo.
Anything below 10mil LT will be hugely disappointing. Nintendo will market it longterm as much as they can, just like RFA and ACNH.

Yeah, I think you'll get another entry for your Middleweight graph. Heavyweight if it exceeds expectations.

I think it could possibly exceed 20m and join the Switch heavyweights club, although to be fair, the franchise was already in the Switch "heavyweights" club.

This is the game that could recapture a lot of that Wii crowd that have disappered, in a way... reminds me of the 360 and the kinect as well as the Wii Sports success. Could result in a similar boost.

Could also do not much this late into the lifecycle of the Switch which is the safe bet. 4 Million.

Was considering doing a Tbone-esque predition that could be seen as crazy but certainly can see the cards falling in the right way for a massive 10 million+

Definitely over 10 million. Not sure it'll hit 20 million but it absolutely could. I'll guess 15 mil.