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Over 20mil, anything lower and I riot, jk.
The people who predict so low here are going to eat crow. No one expected RFA to sell over 10mil and now it's going to top 15mil at that price.

Switch Sports is cheap and is likely going to be supported long term with more sports even after Golf.
The hype and nostalgia for it is big and it's charting very high at various retailers right now. Why would this launch several times lower than Kirby? 500k is way to low imo.
Anything below 10mil LT will be hugely disappointing. Nintendo will market it longterm as much as they can, just like RFA and ACNH.