I wouldn't classify the regional breakdown as an official prediction (I don't have enough confidence in the Other region to roughly double its LTD sales), but a global total of 160m+ counts as that. I've said it often enough in recent years that I don't expect Switch's successor to launch in 2023, that holidays 2024 is likely the earliest date for such a launch. If this assumption holds true, it isn't challenging to compile a yearly sales progression for Switch's road to 160m+ units.

The following numbers are shipments adjusted to calendar years, because on VGC we talk about sales most of the time in the manner of calendar years rather than fiscal years. Five years have been completed and I'll follow that up by one potential progression of Switch shipments in the years afterwards.

2017: 14.86m/14.86m LTD
2018: 17.41m/32.47m
2019: 20.22m/52.49m
2020: 27.38m/79.87m
2021: 23.67m/103.54m

2022: 20.00m/123.54m
2023: 18.00m/141.54m
2024: 12.00m/153.54m
2025: 5.00m/158.54m
2026: 1.50m/160.04m

To elaborate on these projections, 2022 sees only a modest drop because first and third party support remains strong; Pokémon Legends Arceus is already off to a very strong start and Splatoon 3 seems to be a safe expectation for a 2022 release. Breath of the Wild 2 slips into 2023, but Nintendo is able to have a replacement for the year's holiday title with a 3D Donkey Kong game. I am going with this one because it has been rumored for a while and the next game from EAD Tokyo is due. They've released Super Mario Odyssey in late 2017 and the less resources-demanding Bowser's Fury in early 2021.

2023 is able to hold up well in comparison to 2022 because BotW finally releases in the first half of the year and because the next generation of Pokémon games takes the holiday slot. This is accompanied with a new Switch revision. So far we've had Switch in 2017, Switch Lite in 2019 and Switch OLED in 2021. The two-year-pattern to reinvigorate interest in Switch hardware makes sense, so I consider it fair to expect it to continue. Introduction of value-added bundles for the older SKUs, meaning hardware price remains the same, but with a free pack-in game.

2024 experiences a significant drop (33%) because Switch's successor releases during the holiday season, so Switch will be without a big holiday title from Nintendo and the marketing focus will have shifted too. Nevertheless, Switch will still be able to have a decent holiday season for the usual reasons in a transition period: Notably cheaper hardware and software prices than the new next gen hardware has.

2025 sees significantly scaled back first party support, but the system can still sell several million units based on its combination of price and strong back catalogue. 2026 is when Switch approaches the end of its production run.

This example of a sales progression does not assume anything special for Switch, except if it's considered special that Switch could go on for more than seven years before its replacement launches. This shouldn't be special though when one considers the sales curve through the first five years. In this example there is no assumption for Switch to receive as much first party support as the 3DS got after Switch had launched; rather the expectation is much more modest and projects a sharp decline once Nintendo begins to shift their attention to their next gen hardware.

Essentially, if Switch manages to have another two good years, it will be much harder to come up with realistic scenarios for it to fall short of 160m units sold than the other way around. I suppose some would say that Nintendo could pursue a strategy like Sony where they deliberately scale back Switch production to make consumers transition faster to next gen, but that's a redundant and idiotic strategy because it limits profits. I mean, it should be self-evident for everyone that the PS4 and PS5 could have had good sales for the respective point in their lifecycles simultaneously. It may take some time until the majority realizes just how much of an idiot Jim Ryan really is, but that's another topic.

I am most interested in regional breakdowns though.

If it can't do it in the Others region, then will they sell more in Japan? Surpass 40m? or Americas? passed 70m?

Or maybe it is Europe, the region with the biggest possibility for growth? However it too would have to nearly double.

2022 looks fine, maybe a bit smaller. Q1 is already predicted by Nintendo to be ~1m smaller this year. So maybe on that line Nintendo expects 80% of 2021, which would be 19m. So a 20% drop is fine.

2021 was already a 14% drop. You might blame stock issues, but for most quarters stock was fine. And for holiday quarters, one should expect stock issues to persist.

Everything beyond is optimistic. You basically think the NSW will be unaffected by old age. 2023 will have to have a strong revision for this to work for sure. But you predicting a significant revision is like me predicting 0 price cuts for life. I think a 2023 revision would entail a 2025 Switch 2, but who knows.

All told selling more than 1/3 of its LTD sales past its 20th quarter would be unprecedented, but maybe the Switch will find a way.

I am most interested in regional breakdowns though.

If it can't do it in the Others region, then will they sell more in Japan? Surpass 40m? or Americas? passed 70m?

Or maybe it is Europe, the region with the biggest possibility for growth? However it too would have to nearly double.

2022 looks fine, maybe a bit smaller. Q1 is already predicted by Nintendo to be ~1m smaller this year. So maybe on that line Nintendo expects 80% of 2021, which would be 19m. So a 20% drop is fine.

2021 was already a 14% drop. You might blame stock issues, but for most quarters stock was fine. And for holiday quarters, one should expect stock issues to persist.

Everything beyond is optimistic. You basically think the NSW will be unaffected by old age. 2023 will have to have a strong revision for this to work for sure. But you predicting a significant revision is like me predicting 0 price cuts for life. I think a 2023 revision would entail a 2025 Switch 2, but who knows.

All told selling more than 1/3 of its LTD sales past its 20th quarter would be unprecedented, but maybe the Switch will find a way.

Bold: both are totally possible.

Japan and Europe are the two that have more room to beat Rol's numbers. Switch should be able to sell roughly 4.5 million in Japan this year, that's already 45% of the 10 million.
As for Europe, it just had it best holiday quarter and reports came in that Switch is up YoY at least in U.K and Spain, chances are it may be up in other regions of Europe. This is mainly due to the price correction.

Lastly, Nintendo is predicting 1 million smaller this year for Jan-Mar but at this point we dont really know if that is fully due to the chip shortage or Nintendo being a bit conservative so they can end up beating the goal by 0.5 mil or so.

We'll have a much clearer picture of Nintendo's plans for the next fiscal year once they give their switch target next quarter.

I don't get the hope and excitement for Switch 1 hitting that number. For it to do that, and break records, means they won't release a full next-gen device until multiple years from now, a good 7-9 years after Switch 1 came out. I owned a Wii U and own a Switch. The Switch simply feels like a smaller, more portable Wii U. I owned numerous Wii U titles and have seen/owned some of them on Switch and they look basically the same. Whatever power difference the Switch has over Wii U is not really noticeable to people who aren't tech-obsessed (so don't come at me with meaningless specs because most people that care about that. They just care about the eyeball test). The power difference Wii U had over Wii was INSANE and the games looked absolutely stunning compared to Wii, and not just in graphics, but the scope, draw distance, etc.

I want to be excited like I was for Wii U games coming off the Wii, but the longer we have Switch 1 the longer we have Wii U-level games, for 12+ years we will have had that level games for the sad few of us that owned Wii U's. I know many on here are experiencing HD Nintendo games for the first time because you didn't own a Wii U, but those of us that owned Wii U's have already gotten used to this level of visuals/power/depth. I want to be blown away again, and no game on the Switch has done that compared to the Wii U, but many, many games on the Wii U did that compared to the Wii.

I'm not a graphics-obsessed person, and this may come off that way. I don't expect or even want Series X level graphics out of Switch 2. I just want to be, at all times, playing just one generation of graphics behind, not two (like the Switch is and will potentially be for the next 3+ years). At this rate, we are going to have Series X2 and PS5 Pro out before Switch 2, making the gap even more absurd. Making the Switch 2 even more exciting to me is the possible inclusion of DLSS, which would really future proof that device and enable it to have a really long life-span, but Switch 1 doesn't have that technology.

Just be happy that it's unlikely that the market will align with my standards. I'd be fine if Nintendo's roadmap came true, as in, Switch's successor is a 20XX device, so will not necessarily materialize during the 2020s. I prefer it when games don't push the Switch's capabilities, because that way they don't require the fan to run and the console is completely silent like gaming should be. All I want to hear is the music and sounds of a game to get immersed in it.

The other big reason why I don't look forward to more powerful hardware is that it will make game development times even longer without the gameplay or amount of content benefiting from it at all. With Switch Nintendo has combined all of their development resources, but the amount of games they put out is barely able to keep up with their combined output for the 3DS and Wii U (3DS to Switch constitutes a huge jump for many development teams, hence fewer games from them). A future with fewer Nintendo games being released isn't enticing, nor is the alternative of buying up studios to increase manpower when such quick growth is likely to result in a drop of quality. The more people you have work on a game, the harder it is to keep everyone on the same page.