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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

Tbh not very long ago my prediction for how much the Switch would sell in its lifetime was around 145 Million, which is what I feel like most people on this website agreed on being around the 140s range, which is still extremely successful and historically successful and a major accomplishment for the Switch and Nintendo, but just falling slightly short of the PS2 & DS. This is because most of us believed that a Switch successor would launch in 2024 and sales would drop sharply once the successor releases.

However, only a few days ago I decided to change my prediction and go out on a limb to say the Switch will reach 160 Million and outsell the DS & PS2. The thing that's making me believe the Switch will become the greatest selling console of all time is the software sales.

While yes, the Switch in 2021 is noticeably down from 2020, a big part of that is due to shortages which doesn't necessarily represent a dwindling of interest, and the fact that the Switch is dealing with shortages still despite nearly selling 24 Million in 2021 alone shows that demand has not at all gone down significantly since 2020. Id say without shortages 26 Million was easily possible for the Switch which nearly matches 2020's numbers. So we shouldn't assume that 2021 is the beginning of a normal downward trend in sales for the Switch due to demand. Which means that Switch's sales won't drop off as quickly as people think. I went a little bit on a tagent here when my main point was originally Switch's software sales but I just wanted to point this out as well lol.

However, my point is that while Switch hardware sales are down in 2021 due to shortages, what's interesting is that software sales are up from 2020, but they're not only up, they're noticably higher than the DS and the Wii. Pretty much most of the profit these console manufacturers make is from the software, and while the DS may have had sold more hardware units during its prime compared to the Switch, the Switch is selling far more software which is more beneficial for Nintendo's bottom line which will make them more inclined to keep the Switch around for longer than the DS. Whats interesting also is that once the DS & Wii experienced their first fiscal year hardware sales drop off, the software sales also went down. That isn't the case for the Switch which has software sales that are slightly up in 2021 then in 2020 despite Switch hardware sales dropping.The Switch is going to be only the 3rd console in history to sell over 1 billion in software sales along with the PS4 & PS2.

Like Rol stated, I feel like alot of us still are doubting the Switch being able to sell 160M cause when it comes to predictions we like to play it safe and saying Switch is gonna be the greatest selling console ever is just difficult for people to fathom & predict cause we can't base this on history to make this prediction as the Switch IS history like no other. However, when you really think about Switch has little reason not to sell 160M.

Last edited by javi741 - on 04 February 2022

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I called 300m 3 years ago

 "I think people should define the word crap" - Kirby007

Join the Prediction League

Instead of seeking to convince others, we can be open to changing our own minds, and seek out information that contradicts our own steadfast point of view. Maybe it’ll turn out that those who disagree with you actually have a solid grasp of the facts. There’s a slight possibility that, after all, you’re the one who’s wrong.

This is a crazy good opening post.

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

kirby007 said:

I called 300m 3 years ago

You think that’s high,

I predicted 100 billion units across 3 millennia.

I was REALLY high :)

I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Until the semiconductor shortage finally gets sorted out, the Switch will sell through every unit Nintendo is able to order, so it'll be really hard to gauge the actual demand because of it, but it's still got to be pretty damn high if it can ship nearly 11 million units in its 5th holiday season.

If Nintendo ordered enough, with the software lineup it has planned, I could see the Switch being flat next fiscal year. It'll likely be down, but not by much. FY 2022 should be another one above 20 million. And if the shortages are really sorted out by early 2023, if it has another solid lineup, another revision, and perhaps even price cuts across all models, I think FY 2023 could also be >20 million.

They certainly have what it takes to pull it off, but they have to play their cards right and not screw it up by launching its successor prematurely. The Switch 2, which will likely be backwards compatible, should launch, at the very earliest, March 2024. I actually think Holiday 2024 - Spring 2025 is the most likely landing spot. But that should give Switch 1 at least two more full fiscal years to sell on its own.

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160m is very much possible it just comes down to how 2023 goes.

If Nintendo released a special edition with fixed Joycons, we will see it reach 200 million.

If it reaches 160, hopefully it goes as high as 165 so there is not doubt that its the highest selling of all time.

tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Now that I've finally read through the entire OP I can say, I agree. Sums it up well.

Yeah, it's happening