Tbh not very long ago my prediction for how much the Switch would sell in its lifetime was around 145 Million, which is what I feel like most people on this website agreed on being around the 140s range, which is still extremely successful and historically successful and a major accomplishment for the Switch and Nintendo, but just falling slightly short of the PS2 & DS. This is because most of us believed that a Switch successor would launch in 2024 and sales would drop sharply once the successor releases.
However, only a few days ago I decided to change my prediction and go out on a limb to say the Switch will reach 160 Million and outsell the DS & PS2. The thing that's making me believe the Switch will become the greatest selling console of all time is the software sales.
While yes, the Switch in 2021 is noticeably down from 2020, a big part of that is due to shortages which doesn't necessarily represent a dwindling of interest, and the fact that the Switch is dealing with shortages still despite nearly selling 24 Million in 2021 alone shows that demand has not at all gone down significantly since 2020. Id say without shortages 26 Million was easily possible for the Switch which nearly matches 2020's numbers. So we shouldn't assume that 2021 is the beginning of a normal downward trend in sales for the Switch due to demand. Which means that Switch's sales won't drop off as quickly as people think. I went a little bit on a tagent here when my main point was originally Switch's software sales but I just wanted to point this out as well lol.
However, my point is that while Switch hardware sales are down in 2021 due to shortages, what's interesting is that software sales are up from 2020, but they're not only up, they're noticably higher than the DS and the Wii. Pretty much most of the profit these console manufacturers make is from the software, and while the DS may have had sold more hardware units during its prime compared to the Switch, the Switch is selling far more software which is more beneficial for Nintendo's bottom line which will make them more inclined to keep the Switch around for longer than the DS. Whats interesting also is that once the DS & Wii experienced their first fiscal year hardware sales drop off, the software sales also went down. That isn't the case for the Switch which has software sales that are slightly up in 2021 then in 2020 despite Switch hardware sales dropping.The Switch is going to be only the 3rd console in history to sell over 1 billion in software sales along with the PS4 & PS2.
Like Rol stated, I feel like alot of us still are doubting the Switch being able to sell 160M cause when it comes to predictions we like to play it safe and saying Switch is gonna be the greatest selling console ever is just difficult for people to fathom & predict cause we can't base this on history to make this prediction as the Switch IS history like no other. However, when you really think about Switch has little reason not to sell 160M.Last edited by javi741 - on 04 February 2022