So to get to 160M, Switch would have to have yet another 20M+ year (2023 perhaps), or absolutely kill it this year (very unlikely). This is way too optimistic for my likings.
Stock is the big factor here because, regarding demand, it's very unlikely that Switch ships less than 22m for the calendar year.
Nintendo expects 4m shipped from Jan-Mar. For the big Oct-Dec quarter, the Switch is pretty much guaranteed to move >10m units (again) this holiday. So that makes 14m so far.
What we're left with are the two middle quarters of the calendar year, Apr-Sep. This is where I think Switch will have the biggest increase over last year's sales (8.28m) because of Splatoon 3, but just to lowball it, let's say flat this year, provided the units are available.
By this rationale, that's 22.28m for the calendar year and if the stock is there I think it will actually be a bit higher.