It's 140M from me.
Just in first 4 weeks of this year we see almost 17% YoY drop compared to the same period of time in 2021. IMO this year will end with 20% drop.
These are my predictions (from the base of 25M in 2021). The predicted YoY drops aren't that far off from the Wii's and DS's. In fact, mine are more on the optimistic side.
So to get to 160M, Switch would have to have yet another 20M+ year (2023 perhaps), or absolutely kill it this year (very unlikely). This is way too optimistic for my likings.
The cliff is coming next year?