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p0isonparadise said:
Kristof81 said:

It's 140M from me.

Just in first 4 weeks of this year we see almost 17% YoY drop compared to the same period of time in 2021. IMO this year will end with 20% drop. 

These are my predictions (from the base of 25M in 2021). The predicted YoY drops aren't that far off from the Wii's and DS's. In fact, mine are more on the optimistic side. 

Calendar year YoY change Sales (in millions) Total (in millions)
2021 N/A 25 101.5
2022 -20% 20.0 121.5
2023 -40% 12.0 133.5
2024 -60% 4.8 138.3

So to get to 160M, Switch would have to have yet another 20M+ year (2023 perhaps), or absolutely kill it this year (very unlikely). This is way too optimistic for my likings. 

The cliff is coming next year?

I wouldn't say "the cliff". It's just perfectly normal drop. Past year 5, each year the YoY sales (on average) drop by 20-ish%. The biggest shot in the dark is 2022 perdiction. If that turns out to be true, then 140M lifetime is pretty much given. 

javi741 said:

Tbh a drop from 20M to 12M seems a bit too much. Not even the Wii with a lack of games, dying gimmick, and already price cut multiple times had a sales drop that significant.

We're already going to see the Switch receive tons of games for 2022 and will likely move towards 2023 as well keeping the momentum for longer than the Wii. Nintendo also has alot of room for revisions, price cuts, ect, and we're still seeing the Switch in high demand going into 2022 where despite selling 24 Million in 2021 the Switch was still dealing with shortages, its unlikely we'll see a 24M system thats dealing with shortages sell only 12M with so much room for price cuts, revisions, and a much better game library.

I believe a drop off closer to 16M in 2023 is more likely.

Sure it's not going to drop as quickly as Wii, but more like the DS ... from 23M to 14M, also in year 7. To avoid it, Switch would have to have Gameboy-like sales curve and support.

Last edited by Kristof81 - on 06 February 2022