Good analysis and I agree. My personal Switch predictions if Switch 2 does indeed release no earlier than 2024:
End of 2022: 125m shipped
End of 2023: 143m shipped
End of 2024: 155m shipped
Lifetime: >164m
In my opinion there's a good chance that Switch makes it to 160m, unless Mario Kart 9 ends up releasing on it. Then it's a certainty.