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Good analysis and I agree.  My personal Switch predictions if Switch 2 does indeed release no earlier than 2024:

End of 2022:  125m shipped

End of 2023:  143m shipped

End of 2024:  155m shipped

Lifetime:  >164m

In my opinion there's a good chance that Switch makes it to 160m, unless Mario Kart 9 ends up releasing on it.  Then it's a certainty.