Kakadu18 said:
Farsala said:
I am most interested in regional breakdowns though.
If it can't do it in the Others region, then will they sell more in Japan? Surpass 40m? or Americas? passed 70m?
Or maybe it is Europe, the region with the biggest possibility for growth? However it too would have to nearly double.
2022 looks fine, maybe a bit smaller. Q1 is already predicted by Nintendo to be ~1m smaller this year. So maybe on that line Nintendo expects 80% of 2021, which would be 19m. So a 20% drop is fine.
2021 was already a 14% drop. You might blame stock issues, but for most quarters stock was fine. And for holiday quarters, one should expect stock issues to persist.
Everything beyond is optimistic. You basically think the NSW will be unaffected by old age. 2023 will have to have a strong revision for this to work for sure. But you predicting a significant revision is like me predicting 0 price cuts for life. I think a 2023 revision would entail a 2025 Switch 2, but who knows.
All told selling more than 1/3 of its LTD sales past its 20th quarter would be unprecedented, but maybe the Switch will find a way.
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Bold: both are totally possible.
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Of course that is why I do predict it, but it requires Nintendo to keep acting strangely is all I am saying.
brute said:
Farsala said:
I am most interested in regional breakdowns though.
If it can't do it in the Others region, then will they sell more in Japan? Surpass 40m? or Americas? passed 70m?
Or maybe it is Europe, the region with the biggest possibility for growth? However it too would have to nearly double.
2022 looks fine, maybe a bit smaller. Q1 is already predicted by Nintendo to be ~1m smaller this year. So maybe on that line Nintendo expects 80% of 2021, which would be 19m. So a 20% drop is fine.
2021 was already a 14% drop. You might blame stock issues, but for most quarters stock was fine. And for holiday quarters, one should expect stock issues to persist.
Everything beyond is optimistic. You basically think the NSW will be unaffected by old age. 2023 will have to have a strong revision for this to work for sure. But you predicting a significant revision is like me predicting 0 price cuts for life. I think a 2023 revision would entail a 2025 Switch 2, but who knows.
All told selling more than 1/3 of its LTD sales past its 20th quarter would be unprecedented, but maybe the Switch will find a way.
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Japan and Europe are the two that have more room to beat Rol's numbers. Switch should be able to sell roughly 4.5 million in Japan this year, that's already 45% of the 10 million.
As for Europe, it just had it best holiday quarter and reports came in that Switch is up YoY at least in U.K and Spain, chances are it may be up in other regions of Europe. This is mainly due to the price correction.
Lastly, Nintendo is predicting 1 million smaller this year for Jan-Mar but at this point we dont really know if that is fully due to the chip shortage or Nintendo being a bit conservative so they can end up beating the goal by 0.5 mil or so.
We'll have a much clearer picture of Nintendo's plans for the next fiscal year once they give their switch target next quarter.
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Europe is down YoY the least out of all the regions due to the price correction but it is still down 14%. Japan is partially there, but tends to be the region to die off the fastest.
As part of my predictions, I believe the chip shortage will still be a thing or at least create stock issues during holiday quarters. For sure, will be the most interesting thing to see what they predict.
