Damn!,  that was quite the "ace".

I’m changing my vote from a maybe to a yes. Call of duty on gamepass completely changed the game

It'll easily beat the Xone, but i don't think it'll quite match the 85 million of the 360. I could see it ending up around 75 million.

Let's round up it's current sales to 12 million, that's for one year plus the holiday launch season. Let's say it improves from here as the gen heats up and it averages 12 million per year for the next five years, that puts it at 72 million. Throw in another 3 million after it's successor launch and you get 75 million. Works out to the same numbers if you give it six more years before being replaced but average 10 million per year, which is probably more realistic than 12 million/year given that its sales will be lower later in its life.

Yeah I'm even more certain now with them owning Actiblizz.

Actually I expect them to be neck and neck with Sony now at about 100M sold each.

Well things sure changed fast. I still don't see it happening but can't rule it out entirely anymore and now expect it to surpass 70m lifetime and wouldn't be surprised much if it got to 80m. This massive development really could take a lot of market share away from Sony.

Call of duty exclusive... Yeah, it's gonna pass X360.

The poll is very balanced so far.

15 Yes
20 Maybe
20 No

Thats a big flex they just did. Certainly bumps their reach a fair bit. But I still belive it wont reach the 360. Their tactics still havent changed. Also this deal is a ways off. We are talking 2023 to first see a COD on the hollidays. And blizzards game output is the slowest out of any company. Maybe not CD project red.

I went with "Maybe" option as I still think that it will take way too much to really even come close to 360 numbers.
First of all, back then Sony literally handled a ton of advantage to Microsoft on their own. A lot of things were in favour of 360 - early launch, better pricing, better and easier to work on hardware, which also led to some developers working exclusively on 360 games at the time. There wasn't that much of negative legacy from Xbox generation either.
Second, as can be seen based on charts here, 360 surely started to decline already back in 2009 after it passed 40m mark. Kinect did a lot to boost sales further. If it wasn't for Kinect, I think 360 sales could have easily been at least 15m less than what we have now.

So, despite the fact that this is probably gonna be the gen where Xbox should theoretically have the best first party software lineup in it's history, I still think that Xbox Series will end up selling a decent amount less than 360 did. No huge advantage over PS5, still remaining negativity from Xbox One generation, games releasing also on PC, no Kinect-like miracle which will add 15m sales out of nowhere - all these facts go against such possibility to match 360 sales. But who knows?

I think we can expect LT sales around 60-70m at this point if Microsoft plays their cards right. And if they don't lose their way due to euphoria from such success, then maybe the gen after that would be the one where they can try to outdo 360.

P.S. I think some people in gaming community really overestimate the importance of ActiBlizz acquisition effect on console sales. The deal will be finalised only by mid-2023. And we probably won't see any exclusive content until late 2024, because they simply won't cancel games already in development for Playstation consoles. By late 2024, the gen will be practically done and most likely both PS5 and Xbox Series will pass their peaks anyway.

It's unlikely with a typical 7-8 year gen.

360 achieved its sales feat through PS3 having a terrible start, PS5 is having an amazing start and that isn't going to stop.
Gamepass being on PC will also dilute Xbox's hardware somewhat down the road where some would have been tempted to double dip or PC gamers who wouldn've invested in a console late in the gen to play exclusives.

I think it'll only pass the 360 if they have a 10 year generation, its possible that a mid-gen upgrade ready for when the systems are showing their age could be the key to double dipping... not the Series S as many are speculating. Of course this will be limited to the 20m or so enthusiasts who care about specs and having the best experience, but thats a big enough pool to push it over 360.