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Forums - Sales Discussion - Can/Will Xbox Series outsell the Xbox 360 and becomes the best-selling Xbox?

 

Will Xbox Series become the best-selling Xbox to date?

Yes 21 30.00%
 
Maybe 25 35.71%
 
No 24 34.29%
 
Total:70

Unless it has a problem similar to RRoD (failure rate of 24%-54% depending on estimate) no.



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Nope. It needs 3 markets to reach that level, and it's currently doing okay in the US, meh in Europe, and totaly non-existant in Japan.

Xbox 360 did 25 million in Europe, I don't see the Series reaching this level. Maybe 15 million at best. Why not 40 million max in the US. And 500k in Japan. so 65 million, but very difficult to say more.

Outside the US, the Xbox brand is the third wheel, you consider it if neither Sony nor Nintendo suits your needs. That's what happend during the 360 era (you had the very casual Wii, and the very expensive PS3). You have neither now (you have the affordable PS5 and the very competitive Switch).



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So the Series consoles have been on the market a bit over a year now. According to the VGChartz charts tool, the Series consoles are sitting at 6.14 million consoles in North America, 3.65 million in Europe, and 0.13 million in Japan. If we assume another 8 year console cycle, and one of those years is out of the way, and we also assume the Series consoles sell at roughly the same clip that they are now, that would put the Series consoles at around 43 million North America, 25 million EU, and 900k Japan.

Those numbers will fluctuate of course. I think 900k in Japan would be extremely optimistic, and 25 million in Europe again would be a tall task. But 43 sounds about right for North America. My predictions

NA: 45
Europe: 20
JP: 500k
Rest of world: 12 million (I am assuming about double what the Xbox one did for this category)

Total: 77.5. Which is more or less my original 80 million guess. I think this is doable



No, I don't think it will.

As always, a basic premise is the combined PS+Xbox market which has slightly declined with each passing generation. It's the result of the growth in developing markets being unable to offset the declines in mature markets. It doesn't look like that's going to change this generation, so the ceiling is around 165m. It's not going to help matters that now both Sony and Microsoft put their games on the PC. Microsoft all of them on day 1, Sony still testing the waters.

Of these 165m, the majority will go to Sony due to their better global presence. That's capping the Xbox Series X|S at 82m, so it's not going to be enough to top  the Xbox 360 even in the theoretical best case scenario. More realistically, the best case scenario for Microsoft is 65-70m which would put Sony in the range of 95-100m.

Microsoft is too dependent on the USA and the UK as their sales drivers, so their global reach is too limited to pass 85m lifetime. They'd need something extraordinary to get there, such as a generation that lasts 9-10 years before replacement.

While both PS and Xbox had higher initial demand and sales than ever before - before the chip shortages hit - the same thing was the case during the PS4 and Xbox One generation which ultimately fell short of matching their predecessors despite the introduction of mid-gen upgrades that worked as incentive for more double-dipping on console purchases. That's why there shouldn't be too much stock put into year 1 and year 2 sales when it comes to figuring out lifetime sales. The important question is if either Sony or Microsoft are doing anything significant to bring in customers they didn't have before, and neither of them isn't showing any signs of that, except for their games by putting them on the PC. But that's only expanding the reach of their software at the expense of their hardware, and hardware is what this topic is about.



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aTokenYeti said:

So the Series consoles have been on the market a bit over a year now. According to the VGChartz charts tool, the Series consoles are sitting at 6.14 million consoles in North America, 3.65 million in Europe, and 0.13 million in Japan. If we assume another 8 year console cycle, and one of those years is out of the way, and we also assume the Series consoles sell at roughly the same clip that they are now, that would put the Series consoles at around 43 million North America, 25 million EU, and 900k Japan.

Those numbers will fluctuate of course. I think 900k in Japan would be extremely optimistic, and 25 million in Europe again would be a tall task. But 43 sounds about right for North America. My predictions

NA: 45
Europe: 20
JP: 500k
Rest of world: 12 million (I am assuming about double what the Xbox one did for this category)

Total: 77.5. Which is more or less my original 80 million guess. I think this is doable

These numbers are all wrong.

There is no way XS sells 45M in NA when the 360 sold 42M in USA. XB1 going from 6M in EU to 25M is hilarious.  



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src said:
aTokenYeti said:

So the Series consoles have been on the market a bit over a year now. According to the VGChartz charts tool, the Series consoles are sitting at 6.14 million consoles in North America, 3.65 million in Europe, and 0.13 million in Japan. If we assume another 8 year console cycle, and one of those years is out of the way, and we also assume the Series consoles sell at roughly the same clip that they are now, that would put the Series consoles at around 43 million North America, 25 million EU, and 900k Japan.

Those numbers will fluctuate of course. I think 900k in Japan would be extremely optimistic, and 25 million in Europe again would be a tall task. But 43 sounds about right for North America. My predictions

NA: 45
Europe: 20
JP: 500k
Rest of world: 12 million (I am assuming about double what the Xbox one did for this category)

Total: 77.5. Which is more or less my original 80 million guess. I think this is doable

These numbers are all wrong.

There is no way XS sells 45M in NA when the 360 sold 42M in USA. XB1 going from 6M in EU to 25M is hilarious.  

The I said North America, not the US, and in North America the Xbox 360 sold 49 million units. We have also seen much more substantial sales rebounds in certain regions for other consoles before, so Xbox going from 6 million to 20 million in Europe wouldn’t be unprecedented or outlandish. The PS5 is currently outselling the Series consoles almost exactly 2:1 in Europe, and 9th generation finishing with 40 million PS5s and 20 million Xbox Series consoles in Europe seems completely plausible to me 



yo33331 said:
Leynos said:

S model didn't burn itself down.

You are wrong.

It didn't burn itself down in the first 2-3 years of it's life.

However if you go now and look at reddit, ebay, youtube, and many more places there are many more units of S consoles with Red dot of death, than FAT consoles (jasper motherboards) with RROD. In fact there is pretty much no jasper consoles overheated, but there is many S consoles died already.

If you compare it to the earlier FAT consoles, then yes, I agree, they are much better than 2005-2007 units. Maybe as good as 2008 units. However 2009 and 2010 units of the FAT consoles - Jaspers, are the best and the most reliable ones. They live for 10 even 15 years, but there are many S consoles which are dying after 5-6-7-8 years of use with Red dot of death.

But still .. this was not the point. We were talking purely about the design itself. Many people like the FAT one the most. So for some the S is the prettier for other the FAT one is the prettier.

Leynos said:

All Xbox consoles were not designed to really stand vertical yet many people did, that was a fault of all models. Mine lays horizontal. had it for a decade. Not a single issue. S model had the lowest failure rate of the first two models and S model had a pretty small fail rate.Sadly MS did not fix the disc issue if the console got moved. The S model used a different MB and cooler CPU and GPU.  I don't trust the E model as it was made to cut costs everhwhere they could. I doubt they spent much time on QC.

I've had my 360 Slim since 2010 and have never had an issue with it.  And, I do still use it.  In fact, it's the only Microsoft console I've ever owned that didn't suffer some kind of failure at some point.  Original XBox (power button stopped functioning), XBox 360 Premium (RROD), XBox One (power brick died, had to be replaced with a 3rd party power supply to get working again).



I'm gonna put that smack dab in the "no" category



It will be extremely difficult.

Xbox doesn't have the worldwide pull it needs to compensate for the stranglehold the 360 had in NA/UK against the PS3. They can do better in Europe + RoTW but they would need to at least double their lifetime sales to reach that 80+ Million threshold. Outside of the UK, the market data we have for Spain, France & India, points to the Series X/S getting outsold 2:1 at best, 10:1 at worst.



PotentHerbs said:

It will be extremely difficult.

Xbox doesn't have the worldwide pull it needs to compensate for the stranglehold the 360 had in NA/UK against the PS3. They can do better in Europe + RoTW but they would need to at least double their lifetime sales to reach that 80+ Million threshold. Outside of the UK, the market data we have for Spain, France & India, points to the Series X/S getting outsold 2:1 at best, 10:1 at worst.

France and Spain, fair enough, but all 3 console makers lifetime sales in India will be a rounding error compared to their global lifetime sales. It’s a completely irrelevant market that I don’t think is an accurate reflection of anything