I'm gonna put that smack dab in the "no" category

It will be extremely difficult.

Xbox doesn't have the worldwide pull it needs to compensate for the stranglehold the 360 had in NA/UK against the PS3. They can do better in Europe + RoTW but they would need to at least double their lifetime sales to reach that 80+ Million threshold. Outside of the UK, the market data we have for Spain, France & India, points to the Series X/S getting outsold 2:1 at best, 10:1 at worst.

France and Spain, fair enough, but all 3 console makers lifetime sales in India will be a rounding error compared to their global lifetime sales. It’s a completely irrelevant market that I don’t think is an accurate reflection of anything 

No. Evertything MS seems to be doing tells me that their market share will drop simce theres less and less need to own an Xbox.

What it does have going for it that MS has no control over it is the insane price hike PC got since only a couple of years. I do see a hell of a lot of pc players migrate to consoles this gen and xbox will benefit the most from this.

I would jave said they would not even pads the x1. But after this I see them at least matching it. Still not gona get close to the 360 since outside the US the xbox brand is dead.

The console buying audience and the PC audience are at this point fundamentally separate, I think. “Just build a PC if you want to play MS first party” is not useful advice to someone that’s a traditional console experience, of which there are still tens of millions. And I think more importantly, the performance per dollar gap between a series X and a gaming PC is outlandish right now, and might not ever get better. Legitimately, the PC parts market might be permanently broken. 

I could easily see it being 2024 and the Series X is still vastly outpacing an equivalently spec’d PC in performance per dollar. That, plus a pro refresh, plus aggressive series S price cuts, I think will move a lot of consoles for Microsoft. I think we could actually see a renaissance in the western console market if the PC market remains this bad 

The Xbox brand isn't "dead" outside the US. Last sales figures had the XSeries selling 83k in Europe which is just shy of what the Xbox One sold WW during the same timeframe. A console losing market share wouldn't be up across the board in all regions compared to the previous gen. 

That's a bit premature to say. A lot of these markets might be small, but its ripe for growth, especially with someone like Jim Ryan at the helm, who is responsible for the Playstation brand having a stranglehold in Europe.

In India, the PS5 is tracking significantly higher than the PS4 was in one year, its entirely possible whatever the PS5 sells lifetime in India, might eclipse the Series consoles lifetime sales in certain parts of Europe. 

Edit: For example, the Series consoles has sold 58K in Spain for 2021, which is slightly below the PS5's 60K sold in India for 2021. 

I agree. I think there are 3 type of pc players right now that where afected by these prices.

1. The ones that think the pc prices will drop ajd just need something to play the latest games untill they drop. They will get an series s simce MS has crosbuy and when ever they upgrade they can take their games with them.

2. The ones who gave up and are planing to main on consoles but could still upgrade if thinga change way later on but is doubfull. Tjose will get a series x or ps5 and probably won't look back since diminishing returns will keep them on on consoles at least for this gen.

3. The high end users. Lets be honest. They dont care. They always spend crazzy amounts and wont stop now. But we also have to admit that this is the smallest section of the pc player base.

Yes it can. Remember the x1 being up at the begining of the gen? Then droping like a rock every year? 

While I see the xbox holding strong In the US I dont see the same anywhere outside. Once they eat throw their fanbase the numbers will drop. 

They just acquired Activision Blizzard. That changes everything.