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Forums - Sales Discussion - Can/Will Xbox Series outsell the Xbox 360 and becomes the best-selling Xbox?

 

Will Xbox Series become the best-selling Xbox to date?

Yes 21 30.00%
 
Maybe 25 35.71%
 
No 24 34.29%
 
Total:70

Yes, and I feel more and more certain about it the more time passes. If a train wreck like the XB1 still managed to do 50M, even doubling that should be possible.



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No. It will gain back some market share due to its strong start and clearer vision than the Xbox One.
But the PS5 is more in demand than the PS3 was. Gaming PCs are also more popular now than they were from 2005-2013.
The Xbox 360 beat the PS3 to the market by a year, had a lot of exclusives. and other qualities.
The Xbox Series S/X are more similar to PCs, albeit being a lot cheaper for their performance (and lacking a ton of functions a PC has).



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Maybe.
As of now we know that it is going to sell well in the first 3 years as we have a clear idea of what games to expect. And those games will help Xbox to maintain its sales momentum. For the latter half of its sales cycle ( year 4, 5, 6 where usually they sell the most consoles) it is too early to say.
Another thing that will play a huge role in all this will be Gamepass. Gamepass will be basically the deciding factor in the years to come.
Third will be price to build a PC. If that price will hover around $2000 for a decent 4k/60, 1440p/120 then it will again benefit the sales of Xbox.
Mid gen refresh and special edition will contribute too.
My prediction is anywhere between 75 Million units to 90 million units as of now. (Difference between lower limit and upper limit is high because current data is not sufficient)



Going in it’s favor:

* The first party library will be the strongest of any Xbox generation
* PC hardware is completely unaffordable for all but the absolute wealthiest customers
* Multiple hardware options
* Gamepass
* Microsoft is not done with acquisitions and seems to be trying harder than any previous generation

Going against

* PlayStations inherited market share lead creates a large amount of negative inertia
* Sustained success in Europe remains elusive
* Limited to no buy-in from Japanese AA and A developers (this matters more for western customers who enjoy these types of games than Japanese customers from the perspective of Xbox)

Unknowns that could change the market up in one way or another:

* what happens if there is a crypto currency crash resulting in a price crash for PC parts
* do customers become burnt out/tired of PlayStation’s lack of genre diversity and/or do Sony exclusives start becoming formulaic and predictable
* where does VR fit into the games market for the next 8 years
* does streaming games take off

I think some extremely aggressive Series S sales would go a long way in North America. It’s the only 9th gen console that could realistically be sold at $199 in the US and still make financial sense, and at that price point you would get so many “sure why not” sales that I think getting back in the ballpark of the 360 wouldn’t be out of the question in NA. Not sure if hitting 25 million in Europe is possible though.

I’m guessing 80 million, so just short

Last edited by aTokenYeti - on 16 January 2022

aTokenYeti said:

Going in it’s favor:

* The first party library will be the strongest of any Xbox generation
* PC hardware is completely unaffordable for all but the absolute wealthiest customers
* Multiple hardware options
* Gamepass
* Microsoft is not done with acquisitions and seems to be trying harder than any previous generation

Going against

* PlayStations inherited market share lead creates a large amount of negative inertia
* Sustained success in Europe remains elusive
* Limited to no buy-in from Japanese AA and A developers (this matters more for western customers who enjoy these types of games than Japanese customers from the perspective of Xbox)

Unknowns that could change the market up in one way or another:

* what happens if there is a crypto currency crash resulting in a price crash for PC parts
* do customers become burnt out/tired of PlayStation’s lack of genre diversity and/or do Sony exclusives start becoming formulaic and predictable
* where does VR fit into the games market for the next 8 years
* does streaming games take off

I think some extremely aggressive Series S sales would go a long way in North America. It’s the only 9th gen console that could realistically be sold at $199 in the US and still make financial sense, and at that price point you would get so many “sure why not” sales that I think getting back in the ballpark of the 360 wouldn’t be out of the question in NA. Not sure if hitting 25 million in Europe is possible though.

I’m guessing 80 million, so just short

Bolded 1 , definitely , I'm scared to pay to upgrade my PC , I want 4k native and 120fps but the Xbox Series X seems more friendly on pricing there.

Bolded 2, Europe is playstation land It's impossible and I think europe likes japanese games more so than America which Xbox will always lose to europe . Europe loves Final Fantasy which Square said nope to Xbox version of Final Fantasy 16 or 7 remake , and Persona series aint coming to Xbox another blow Xbox won't get Europe , and other things that europe players prefer on PS5 over Xbox series.

Bolded 3 , Japanese AA and A games not being on Xbox doesn't excite me If I'm a Otaku player from anywhere around the world I'd choose Playstation 5 , Switch would be second because Switch doesn't have Persona 5 royal nor Final Fantasy series abit anime It's there well  the hair cuts and JRPG .

My own thought here I think many unique games like DJ max(Anime with DJ tunes addicting game) , Guilty Gear Strive , Several Fighting games like Millionth Arthur , Gran Blue fantasy versus will stay Playstation forever they are like Japanese versions of Housemarque developers of returnal so no ports on Xbox or Switch , they kneel to Sony . and dont care for neither Xbox or Switch. I love Dj max Respect on PS4 by Rocky Studios totally PLaystation favoritism which I admire.



Cute and honest Sega Saturn fan, also noone should buy Sega grrrr, Sega for life.

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SegaHeart said:
aTokenYeti said:

Going in it’s favor:

* The first party library will be the strongest of any Xbox generation
* PC hardware is completely unaffordable for all but the absolute wealthiest customers
* Multiple hardware options
* Gamepass
* Microsoft is not done with acquisitions and seems to be trying harder than any previous generation

Going against

* PlayStations inherited market share lead creates a large amount of negative inertia
* Sustained success in Europe remains elusive
* Limited to no buy-in from Japanese AA and A developers (this matters more for western customers who enjoy these types of games than Japanese customers from the perspective of Xbox)

Unknowns that could change the market up in one way or another:

* what happens if there is a crypto currency crash resulting in a price crash for PC parts
* do customers become burnt out/tired of PlayStation’s lack of genre diversity and/or do Sony exclusives start becoming formulaic and predictable
* where does VR fit into the games market for the next 8 years
* does streaming games take off

I think some extremely aggressive Series S sales would go a long way in North America. It’s the only 9th gen console that could realistically be sold at $199 in the US and still make financial sense, and at that price point you would get so many “sure why not” sales that I think getting back in the ballpark of the 360 wouldn’t be out of the question in NA. Not sure if hitting 25 million in Europe is possible though.

I’m guessing 80 million, so just short

Bolded 1 , definitely , I'm scared to pay to upgrade my PC , I want 4k native and 120fps but the Xbox Series X seems more friendly on pricing there.

Bolded 2, Europe is playstation land It's impossible and I think europe likes japanese games more so than America which Xbox will always lose to europe . Europe loves Final Fantasy which Square said nope to Xbox version of Final Fantasy 16 or 7 remake , and Persona series aint coming to Xbox another blow Xbox won't get Europe , and other things that europe players prefer on PS5 over Xbox series.

Bolded 3 , Japanese AA and A games not being on Xbox doesn't excite me If I'm a Otaku player from anywhere around the world I'd choose Playstation 5 , Switch would be second because Switch doesn't have Persona 5 royal nor Final Fantasy series abit anime It's there well  the hair cuts and JRPG .

My own thought here I think many unique games like DJ max(Anime with DJ tunes addicting game) , Guilty Gear Strive , Several Fighting games like Millionth Arthur , Gran Blue fantasy versus will stay Playstation forever they are like Japanese versions of Housemarque developers of returnal so no ports on Xbox or Switch , they kneel to Sony . and dont care for neither Xbox or Switch. I love Dj max Respect on PS4 by Rocky Studios totally PLaystation favoritism which I admire.

I remember reading somewhere that in France in particular Japanese games and culture are extremely popular 



aTokenYeti said:
SegaHeart said:

Bolded 1 , definitely , I'm scared to pay to upgrade my PC , I want 4k native and 120fps but the Xbox Series X seems more friendly on pricing there.

Bolded 2, Europe is playstation land It's impossible and I think europe likes japanese games more so than America which Xbox will always lose to europe . Europe loves Final Fantasy which Square said nope to Xbox version of Final Fantasy 16 or 7 remake , and Persona series aint coming to Xbox another blow Xbox won't get Europe , and other things that europe players prefer on PS5 over Xbox series.

Bolded 3 , Japanese AA and A games not being on Xbox doesn't excite me If I'm a Otaku player from anywhere around the world I'd choose Playstation 5 , Switch would be second because Switch doesn't have Persona 5 royal nor Final Fantasy series abit anime It's there well  the hair cuts and JRPG .

My own thought here I think many unique games like DJ max(Anime with DJ tunes addicting game) , Guilty Gear Strive , Several Fighting games like Millionth Arthur , Gran Blue fantasy versus will stay Playstation forever they are like Japanese versions of Housemarque developers of returnal so no ports on Xbox or Switch , they kneel to Sony . and dont care for neither Xbox or Switch. I love Dj max Respect on PS4 by Rocky Studios totally PLaystation favoritism which I admire.

I remember reading somewhere that in France in particular Japanese games and culture are extremely popular 

Yes, that's why manga and anime as well as Nintendo games are extremely popular in France.



Yes, budget consoles sell in the masses.



0 chance



Ehh probably not, but it will get close like around 70-80.
The 3 things it has going for is; Game Pass, a much stronger 1st party lineup, and Series S. Unlike the 360 and past systems, the software should be consistently strong throughout the gen and actually get better as the gen progresses.