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Forums - Sales Discussion - November NPD 2021 thread

Soundwave on 14 December 2021
Dulfite said:
xMetroid said:

I feel like the opposite will happen. Since this is clearly due to shortage, the fact they are selling out all stocks without barely lifting a finger almost going in year 6 is insane. I doubt Nintendo will want to launch in a market that is unsure if they will get their units or not. They are early enough in the rollout for their next gen to just decide to wait a little more before releasing it imo

And what, they are going to just sit on 5-10 mostly to completely made Switch 2 games? If they, back in 2017, were planning on releasing Switch 2 in 2023, which would line up with their usual 5-6 year life cycle model, then they probably had the launch year games for Switch 2 mapped out back in 2019 at the latest, with development starting shortly after. Those teams have been spending resources on making their games and I doubt Nintendo will want to sit on that many finished games that could be released and making them profit (which they make a lot more from than selling hardware, collectively). 

More than likely there aren't many "Switch 2 only" projects. Even Sony/MS haven't done many/any PS5 or XSX projects, more likely Switch successor is a phased type of transition with a lot of cross platform titles for the first year or more. 



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Zippy6 on 14 December 2021
shikamaru317 said:

With this new information I am worried that Xbox Series may actually briefly fall behind XB1 launch aligned, which would obviously be bad for it's image, even if Xbox Series itself is not to blame, it's just the semi-conductor shortage.

Xbox Series won't fall behind.

XSX after 55 weeks = 9.925m
XBO after 55 weeks = 8.847m

60 weeks on the market will be Week Ending January 1st 2022 for XSX.

XBO after 60 weeks = 10.568m

XSX only needs to sell 644k over 5 weeks after BF to stay ahead of XBO.



Console Launch Aligned Sales Charts

Famitsu Sales Database

VGChartz Monthly Sales Database

Dulfite on 14 December 2021
zorg1000 said:
Dulfite said:

Games take 3-5 years to make. That means if they were planning to release Switch 2 in 2023 dating back to 2017 based on their historical cycles, then games for launch window of Switch 2 would have to start being made no later than 2020 but as early as 2018 (if a bigger game). The few games we know are coming for Switch 1 like Botw 2, MP4, etc. don't paint the full picture of what they have going on behind the scenes. There is no way they could start working on games next year 2022 with the hope of launching in time for 2023, which I'm sure they were initially aiming for. They plan their cycles out years ahead of time, it is entirely too inefficient and resource wasting to delay consoles based on the idea of squeezing the milk to the last drop. They'd rather sell 20 million Switch 2's in a year than an additional 10 million Switch 1's by delaying Switch 2, I guarantee that.

Also, the reason the ports did so well on Switch from Wii U is because hardly anyone bought Wii U's (I did). Those games had huge sales potential on a much more popular device. Porting Switch 1 games to Switch 2 may still be worth it, but they won't sell nearly as much as the Wii U Ports because Switch has fantastic sales and most that wanted to experience those games will have already.

The problem is assuming Nintendo planned a 5-6 year console cycle when they have explicitly stated otherwise.

No, they are saying it now with vague wording that could easily be misinterpreted. And they started the midlife terms over a year ago, I think early 2020. If they normally have a 6 year cycle, the 2020 would be year 3 starting in March and 2021 would be year 4, both of which fall in the middle two years of a 6 year cycle. Nothing new there.

Also, you really think from the start, back in 2017, when historically they always had roughly 6 year cycles, and coming off a bomb in the Wii U that was only out 4.5 years before being replaced, that they had the audacity to assume Switch would sell so well that they knew from that point they wouldn't launch the successor until a year or two later than they usually do? They would have had no reason to be that confident after Wii U.



Dulfite on 14 December 2021
Soundwave said:
Dulfite said:

And what, they are going to just sit on 5-10 mostly to completely made Switch 2 games? If they, back in 2017, were planning on releasing Switch 2 in 2023, which would line up with their usual 5-6 year life cycle model, then they probably had the launch year games for Switch 2 mapped out back in 2019 at the latest, with development starting shortly after. Those teams have been spending resources on making their games and I doubt Nintendo will want to sit on that many finished games that could be released and making them profit (which they make a lot more from than selling hardware, collectively). 

More than likely there aren't many "Switch 2 only" projects. Even Sony/MS haven't done many/any PS5 or XSX projects, more likely Switch successor is a phased type of transition with a lot of cross platform titles for the first year or more. 

This gen of Xbox/PS are closer to the last gen than Switch 2 will be to Switch, I predict. Also, even if they weren't, the way they are designed makes it easier for porting than in the past. Nintendo normally makes big tech leaps every two generations.

N64 to GC was a big leap.

GC to Wii was little leap.

Wii to Wii U was a big leap. 

Wii U to Switch was a little leap.

This is why I think Switch 2 will be another big leap forward, meaning games made for it won't be portable to Switch. They could go the other way and make games that work on Switch and make ports of those to Switch 2 as launch titles, but then they won't have any games that truly take advantage of Switch 2's power and entice people to upgrade.



kenjab on 14 December 2021
Dulfite said:
xMetroid said:

Idk which games you are talking about cause the next Zelda, Mario, Splatoon, Pokemon, Next level games, Kirby and probably a new DK are all going to be on Switch. if they planned some things back in 2019, it was for the next titles and they can just push spread their lineup a little more than what they anticipated if a delay happens. I don't see how any of their main teams working on a launch title rn except maybe Metroid Prime 4 and the Mario Kart team but other than that.. they are already mobilized for the Switch.

Work on next gen will definitely start next year tho and maybe some teams started this year. Thing is, i think they will go the same route as current gen and put their next titles on both the Switch and the new system. That has been rumoured for a bit now. Heck, i even think the successor will be introduced as a Super Switch and will just slowly take over until the Switch and Oled are discontinued in 2024.

Games take 3-5 years to make. That means if they were planning to release Switch 2 in 2023 dating back to 2017 based on their historical cycles, then games for launch window of Switch 2 would have to start being made no later than 2020 but as early as 2018 (if a bigger game). The few games we know are coming for Switch 1 like Botw 2, MP4, etc. don't paint the full picture of what they have going on behind the scenes. There is no way they could start working on games next year 2022 with the hope of launching in time for 2023, which I'm sure they were initially aiming for. They plan their cycles out years ahead of time, it is entirely too inefficient and resource wasting to delay consoles based on the idea of squeezing the milk to the last drop. They'd rather sell 20 million Switch 2's in a year than an additional 10 million Switch 1's by delaying Switch 2, I guarantee that.

Also, the reason the ports did so well on Switch from Wii U is because hardly anyone bought Wii U's (I did). Those games had huge sales potential on a much more popular device. Porting Switch 1 games to Switch 2 may still be worth it, but they won't sell nearly as much as the Wii U Ports because Switch has fantastic sales and most that wanted to experience those games will have already.

The problem is that, even if Nintendo originally planned a 2023 release of the successor, and it normally takes 3-5 years to develop games, the pandemic hitting in 2020-21 would have pushed back development of all those games by at least a year now.  So even if they can still make the consoles in 2023 (i.e., chip shortages are mostly resolved), the games won't be ready by then.



Switch: SW-3707-5131-3911
XBox: Kenjabish

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leo-j on 14 December 2021

Right now the only platforms readily available to purchase in December are:

Switch OLED
XBOX series S

Microsoft did super good on creating a product that is easier to manufacture and more readily available. They will take the sales crown this year and this can turn a tide especially with gamepass doin as we all as it has been doing. What I don’t understand is why Sony isn’t pushing ps4 since I’m sure they could make that as easy as Microsoft is making the series S ? Or is part of the issue the Blu-ray drive ? Ps4 should be doing numbers. It’s just not available for purchase.



 

mM
leo-j on 14 December 2021

Also you would assume with many of the first 2-3 year ps5 titles being cross platform that Sony would be pushing ps4 sales ? This doesn’t make any sense.



 

mM
Mandalore76 on 14 December 2021
leo-j said:

Right now the only platforms readily available to purchase in December are:

Switch OLED
XBOX series S

Microsoft did super good on creating a product that is easier to manufacture and more readily available. They will take the sales crown this year and this can turn a tide especially with gamepass doin as we all as it has been doing. What I don’t understand is why Sony isn’t pushing ps4 since I’m sure they could make that as easy as Microsoft is making the series S ? Or is part of the issue the Blu-ray drive ? Ps4 should be doing numbers. It’s just not available for purchase.

I don't know.  Correct me if I'm wrong.  But the way I understand it is, these Series S sales are coming from an accumulation of unsold stock that was previously not in high demand.  It's selling well now because it's holiday season, and the average consumer is going to take what they can get/give as a gift.  Microsoft isn't suddenly pumping out Series S at an increased rate.  They have been producing what they can alongside the Series X throughout the year.  If Sony were to take that approach, but with producing PS4's at the same time as the PS5 disc and all-digital, it would take resources away from the max # of PS5's they can produce.  Sony is in no way whatsoever interested in doing that.  Just because all the parts aren't the same doesn't mean that a production line isn't getting diverted from one to the other.  Sony deviated from their usual staggered region launch window in order to proclaim the PS5 launch as the greatest PlayStation launch of all time.  They have zero interest in reducing their capability of producing PS5's by even a single unit, regardless of how many PS4's they might be able to sell instead.  PS4 sales aren't going to boost PS5 software sales.  The type of customer that's going to be entering the Sony ecosystem at this point in the console's lifespan would most likely be building up their game library from the bargain bin, or used.  That makes them an unattractive proposition from a business standpoint for Sony to go after rather than focus on manufacturing as many PS5's as they can get into the supply channel.



Dulfite on 14 December 2021
kenjab said:
Dulfite said:

Games take 3-5 years to make. That means if they were planning to release Switch 2 in 2023 dating back to 2017 based on their historical cycles, then games for launch window of Switch 2 would have to start being made no later than 2020 but as early as 2018 (if a bigger game). The few games we know are coming for Switch 1 like Botw 2, MP4, etc. don't paint the full picture of what they have going on behind the scenes. There is no way they could start working on games next year 2022 with the hope of launching in time for 2023, which I'm sure they were initially aiming for. They plan their cycles out years ahead of time, it is entirely too inefficient and resource wasting to delay consoles based on the idea of squeezing the milk to the last drop. They'd rather sell 20 million Switch 2's in a year than an additional 10 million Switch 1's by delaying Switch 2, I guarantee that.

Also, the reason the ports did so well on Switch from Wii U is because hardly anyone bought Wii U's (I did). Those games had huge sales potential on a much more popular device. Porting Switch 1 games to Switch 2 may still be worth it, but they won't sell nearly as much as the Wii U Ports because Switch has fantastic sales and most that wanted to experience those games will have already.

The problem is that, even if Nintendo originally planned a 2023 release of the successor, and it normally takes 3-5 years to develop games, the pandemic hitting in 2020-21 would have pushed back development of all those games by at least a year now.  So even if they can still make the consoles in 2023 (i.e., chip shortages are mostly resolved), the games won't be ready by then.

That is a point I'm willing to concede. Therefore, Switch 2 coming out in 2024 rather than 2023 would have nothing to do with sales of Switch 1, but rather giving them more time to get their launch lineup complete due to pandemic messing up development.



deerox on 14 December 2021
Dulfite said:
zorg1000 said:

The problem is assuming Nintendo planned a 5-6 year console cycle when they have explicitly stated otherwise.

No, they are saying it now with vague wording that could easily be misinterpreted. And they started the midlife terms over a year ago, I think early 2020. If they normally have a 6 year cycle, the 2020 would be year 3 starting in March and 2021 would be year 4, both of which fall in the middle two years of a 6 year cycle. Nothing new there.

Also, you really think from the start, back in 2017, when historically they always had roughly 6 year cycles, and coming off a bomb in the Wii U that was only out 4.5 years before being replaced, that they had the audacity to assume Switch would sell so well that they knew from that point they wouldn't launch the successor until a year or two later than they usually do? They would have had no reason to be that confident after Wii U.

They have been saying that the Switch will have a longer lifespan since 2018:

https://nintendosoup.com/nintendo-wants-extend-switchs-lifespan-6-years/

https://www.techtimes.com/articles/220861/20180213/shigeru-miyamoto-says-you-should-look-forward-to-a-longer-nintendo-switch-life-cycle.htm

Last edited by deerox - on 14 December 2021