Based on sales this quarter, the previous quarter, and recent NPD sales figures. I think it is finally safe to say that the Switch has finally past its peak when it comes to sales numbers after over 4 years, which is quite an accomplishment for a console. Similar successful consoles like the wii peaked way earlier where 2.5 years after launch we started seeing declines.

Some people might argue that the Switch still could reach peak sales again with more new games, price cuts, and hardware iterations. However, people need to realize that typically when a Nintendo console begins to see declines after two quarters or more, it typically almost always means that the console has reached its peak in sales and will continue to decline quarter after quarter from here on out with a few exceptions. Even though many Nintendo consoles do recieve price cuts and new games after sales begin declining, it doesn't usually stop the sales trend that console sales are declining. Only time we've seen major and prolonged growth from a price cut for a Nintendo console was the GameCube with the price dropping to 99$ in 2003. However, the GameCube in an Anomaly failed console that struggled to appeal to anyone unlike the Switch, so the price cut was able to significantly boost sales for people who never necessarily were interested in the GameCube initially. The Switch isn't in that situation.

However, the Switch declining is nothing to be disappointed at all when it still sold an amazing 4.45M this quarter alone. Now Nintendo's focus should be prolonging the systems life for as long as possible. I fee like 2022 we'll finally see a price cut for the Switch which will certainly help sales. Hopefully we'll see more new IPs to expand the Switch's appeal to more people, while Mario,Zelda and pokemon will certainly still help Switch sales, I think new IPs will definitely help more with the Switch's expanding. If course new hardware iterations will help, maybe an actual switch pro in the future or a TV only switch.

The slowdown has started while the PS5 and the XS consoles are taking off. This might not be good news but we are seeing Wii post year 4 vibes here. Nintendo releasing one big title every few years just can't cut it anymore.

I would disagree regarding software outlook; for the future as far as significant games there's the Diamond/Pearl remakes, (internet folks may complain but casuals don't care about graphics much and the nostalgia for these games is massive) Pokemon Legends Arceus, (looks a lot more like the kind of Pokemon game fans were wanting this gen so could pick up quite a few who skipped Let's Go/Sword & Shield/DP remakes) Metroid Dread, (looks like it could smash the series sales history and also could move systems as its a franchise not yet seen on Switch and has hardcore appeal) Mario Party Superstars. (Yes there's one on Switch already but never underestimate nostalgia, with this one bringing back boards and games from the N64 era which is considered the series golden age)

There's also the cumulative effect of lots of other titles like Shin Megami Tensei V, Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope, No More Heroes 3, Project Triangle Strategy, etc.

As far as BOTW2, the hype train hasn't really started yet, once it gets closer to release and more is shown it will kick into high gear, as happened with BOTW1 after E3 2016. I also seriously doubt Splatoon 3 will be held back by paid online when it's considered standard on all systems by now.

I very much agree with you that Nintendo should make some acquisitions though; Monolith for example has proven to be an immense asset to them since their purchase in 2008.

This is just flat out wrong and it's something I addressed in my previous post. Looking at raw sales is misleading because ALL Switch software is doing better than previous iterations. This goes for Mario, Zelda, Splatoon, Smash, Mario Party, Fire Emblem and Kirby. We should expect this to be true of Pokemon. So Pokemon selling more than the 3DS games is expected. Moreover, the pandemic helped Nintendo as people bought Nintendo Switches to play during lockdowns. This is why ALL software went up. 

The reason I'm looking at growth is because customer dissatisfaction will be seen in the long term trend of sales and not the initial release. Pokemon Sword and Shield sold 16 million in its first quarter, so the quality of the actual game was not a major factor for these purchases. Folks bought the game early on and most were not aware of the controversy. Moreover, there was a lot of hype because this was an HD Pokemon and also the fact that some people who may not have owned a 3DS owned a Switch. But the games aren't keeping pace with the sales trends of other titles. 

You're second paragraph tells me you didn't understand what I was doing. I'm comparing sales of games across a set period and showing how Pokemon sold less than other titles. Pokemon is a massive series and outsold similar integrations on the 3DS. The Pokemon games were newer than the other games I compared and, as such, I would expect Pokemon to outsell those games. But Pokemon is not outselling titles that were released 2 years previously. Instead, it's lagging behind. What this tells me is the disappointment with Pokemon Sword and Shield became evident after the initial honeymoon phase with the game, which resulted in slower growth when compared with other major titles. If you want a better comparison, go look at Nintendo's 2020 results and look at the number of titles that outsold Pokemon during the year. 

Its not that I'm mixing opinion and "objectives" (think you meant facts here). It's more you don't understand what I'm talking about. 

they should buy a few studios, true.

that being said, nintendo is VERY perculier about aquisitions, which is a good thing, but means that it does take forever to finally do it. they want to make sure the devs are basically OK in this change, basically. they want to ensure they get what they are buying entirely, no tjust the francises, but also, (actually, more importantly) the devs. and this is not easy.

Pokemon (as a franchise) have the biggest push out of any game in the gaming industry. In the last few years:

- It has a massively popular animation series
- Had a live action movie that grossed almost half billion dollars
- It has one of the most (if not the most) popular mobile game
- Can move over 3 billion USD a years from merchandising alone (https://nintendowire.com/news/2019/08/12/the-pokemon-company-made-a-humble-3-billion-in-merchandise-sales-in-2018/)

The brand is just ubiquitous and its sales are really big but somehow legs behind the franchise perceived popularity. Launched on the hottest system in the market, one would expect mainline Pokemon series to be the most popular gaming franchise on Switch as it surely was on Nintendo handhelds, but Sword & Shield are just too mediocre to yields any major commotion inside console enthusiasts I guess...

If we look at Pokemon series sales progression, we can see how from Gen 3 to Gen 7 every mainline Pokemon entry moved from 15 to 18 million sales, regardless of the popularity of the system it was issued but also regardless in what part of the lifecycle of the system the game was released. This is unprecedented, no franchise can see such stability on its sales. Every game depends on how good are its reviews or world of mouth to keep selling, but Pokemon can safely brings 15 million sales just for existing

Most of Pokemon games have their legs cut off because of third versions issued 2 years after the original game release. SwSh having no third version will keep selling for more time, hence, in my opinion, the only fair comparison with most of Pokemon games can be done until the next quarter (where SwSh will probably end around 22.5 million)

While 22.5 million is without a doubt a nice improvement compared to the ~17 million average of the franchise it's quite an underwhelming increase in sales, in my opinion at least

But well, it's not like Game Freak give a damn about it. As long they can profit from merchan sales who cares for game sales?

Nobody is talking about Pokemkn 4th gen remakes. I even forgot it was happening this year, the marketing has been abysmally bad. I'm surprised Game Freak are the most pathetic developers I have the displeasure to know, but they are great with marketing, by far the best gaming studio in the world when it comes to marketing

Don't know what is happening with them

I would certainly hope so, but it's strange they haven't tried to keep the ball rolling in the meantime. I mean, both D/P remakes and Legends were announced in March and there's been nothing since. Nintendo's communication/marketing can be really weird, the way they'll often just go dead silent on a game for ages.

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe outselling Mario Kart Wii on its own without even including sales of the original version is something that a few years ago I don't think anyone thought was possible, yet here it is so close that it's probably already happened by now. So incredibly impressive. I wish Nintendo would expand their top million sellers list to include 15 or 20 games now that there are just SO many games here. The fact that there are now multiple 10 million sellers that just aren't given updates now is kinda ridiculous lol.