| curl-6 said: Imagine what Switch and MH Rise physical numbers would be like if there was more supply of both. I doubt either is meeting demand right now. Still, great numbers for both. |
Switch is not even meeting demand in the US, let alone Japan.
Kai_Mao said:
I personally don’t know what to think of the PS5’s future performance. Sure, it’s significantly better now. But what about 2-3 years from now? Or 4-5 years? It’s interesting because: 1) software sales don’t appear to align with the hardware sales in Japan. Not a single PS5 in the top 30. Sure you can say “no digital,” but you can say that with a good amount of the games in the top 30, especially Nintendo games in which they don’t disclose digital sales on the weekly charts. 2) Will games like RE8, FFXVI, etc., make enough of a difference to maintain pace above PS4? The PS4 had all the big third party titles from Japan and it just missed the 10 million mark in terms of hardware sales. How does that happen? Especially when the Switch is completely out lapping the entire competition. And it’s not like games like DQ, FF, or MH are some nice quality franchises. Some would argue that their prestige is up there with the Mario’s and Pokémon’s in Japan. So much that we usually expect LTD sales in at least 1-2 million for new entries in these respective franchises. And now you have smaller Japanese titles no longer ignoring the Switch and the sales potential behind that user base. I guess the main goal would be to have the PS5 above 10 million LTD in Japan. But even then, I don’t know if that’s a guarantee. We’ll just have to see if hardware sales legs will last for PS5 beyond the launch year period. |
Final Fantasy has been declining in Japan for a long time now. FFXV sold just over 1 million copies. It's nowhere near even DQ anymore. If FFXVI sells more than XV I will be surprised.
The PS5 will most likely sell less than the PS4 LT. I don't see any reason for it to do better. Starting with the PS3 the Playstation brand has seen a decline in Japan and with the Switch dominating the market I don't see the PS5 stopping this decline. My guess is the PS5 will sell 8mil at most.
Kakadu18 said:
Final Fantasy has been declining in Japan for a long time now. FFXV sold just over 1 million copies. It's nowhere near even DQ anymore. If FFXVI sells more than XV I will be surprised. The PS5 will most likely sell less than the PS4 LT. I don't see any reason for it to do better. Starting with the PS3 the Playstation brand has seen a decline in Japan and with the Switch dominating the market I don't see the PS5 stopping this decline. My guess is the PS5 will sell 8mil at most. |
I feel like the reasoning of the Playstation brand has seen a decline in Japan is very similar to the arguement regarding nintendo home consoles that, if you ignore the wii they've just declined generation over generation.
It should be noted however I believe it is ok to use this argument for video game franchises, as they have more data points to look off of, which is why I agree about FFXVI probably not selling as well as FFXV, but we shall have to wait and see.
Kakadu18 said:
Final Fantasy has been declining in Japan for a long time now. FFXV sold just over 1 million copies. It's nowhere near even DQ anymore. If FFXVI sells more than XV I will be surprised. The PS5 will most likely sell less than the PS4 LT. I don't see any reason for it to do better. Starting with the PS3 the Playstation brand has seen a decline in Japan and with the Switch dominating the market I don't see the PS5 stopping this decline. My guess is the PS5 will sell 8mil at most. |
The last traditional console to do more than 20 million units was the PS2.
Even the Wii did about 12.xx million units sold
It has to do more about traditional home consoles declining in Japan rather than Playstation consoles.
Third Party Previous update:
3rd Party Top 30 Switch
TOTAL: 12.138.264
Three games fell off the Top Thirty - Doraemon: Story of Seasons, Pro Baseball Famista Evolution, The Snack World: TreJarers Gold
Top 10 Publishers:
Konami nears 3 million sales on the Switch across it's titles, it should make it to three million before Baseball Spirits launches in the summer.
Bandai is losing position in the chart as two of their games fell off the chart, allowing Microsoft to move ahead of them with a single title. As Bandai only had Little Nightmares 2 in Q1 and the only other rumored game is a late port of Kakarot I think they will fall behind further in the coming months.
Capcom moves into 4th position thanks to Rise, it looks like it will slot into 2nd place by May and never look back as Stories 2 and the leaked Ace Attorney game should help it start to catch up to Konami.
Square's Trails of Mana is the next game likely to fall outside of the chart, while Bravely Default 2 will likely surpass 200K physical it's still not a stellar result as they limited physical sales yet again due to shortages.
Marvelous continues to make ground, and should surpass 1 million units in the summer if Rune Factory 5 is able to get good WoM, while Olive Town & Sakuna continue to add sales to their current totals.
Koei Tecmo will overtake Level 5 and has Samurai Warriors 5 scheduled for the summer, we shall see if they managed to also surpass both Level 5 and Sega. To me it seems that Age of Calaimity should have no problems surpassing 400K physical by the end of the summer with the future content.
Imagineer should enter the chart sometime in the future knocking off Ubisoft with Fitness Boxing & Fitness Boxing 2
3rd Party Top 30 PS4
TOTAL: 15.346.571
Top 10 Publishers:
Seems that the Switch Top 30 should surpass the PS4 Top 30 in a couple of months thanks to Monster Hunter Rise
Last edited by noshten - on 03 April 2021
| tbone51 said: All games that hit 5mil+ (ship+digital) |
Wait wait, is AC:NH the best selling game of all time in Japan????
kopstudent89 said:
Wait wait, is AC:NH the best selling game of all time in Japan???? |
Yes it is. And it will be a huge gap to the next best selling game in the end.
kopstudent89 said:
Wait wait, is AC:NH the best selling game of all time in Japan???? |
Only if you add Blue version that came out later then it adds up to 10.2mil but regardless ACNH will reach 12mil lifetime in japan
badskywalker said:
I feel like the reasoning of the Playstation brand has seen a decline in Japan is very similar to the arguement regarding nintendo home consoles that, if you ignore the wii they've just declined generation over generation. It should be noted however I believe it is ok to use this argument for video game franchises, as they have more data points to look off of, which is why I agree about FFXVI probably not selling as well as FFXV, but we shall have to wait and see. |
it's a big difference.
With 580k the prevalence of the games is bad. Top 30 and you don't have one game on the charts. The other big game set for May, 6 months after the release. The actual signals have shrunk the market because the data show no physical game on Top 30 now. You can compare it with other platforms and the PS5 is one the worst, with game sales, in physical form. And the direction of sony, with a winding down Japan Studio, corroborates this argument.
The switch is a hybrid system and will sell more than 3DS and Wiiu combined. So the argument Nintendo home console in decline is bullshit at all. Now Nintendo is the top dog in the Japanese market. And the Wii before expands that home console Nintendo market too. So your point is a false equivalence because you ignoring Wii data and now we not ignoring actual data, the actual data shows the aggravation of the decline for Sony in the Japanese market. PS4 has all the thirds on this side, PS5 will have the same treatment?
Last edited by Agente42 - on 03 April 2021
Agente42 said:
it's a big difference. With 580k the prevalence of the games is bad. Top 30 and you don't have one game on the charts. The other big game set for May, 6 months after the release. The actual signals have shrunk the market because the data show no physical game on Top 30 now. You can compare it with other platforms and the PS5 is one the worst, with game sales, in physical form. And the direction of sony, with a winding down Japan Studio, corroborates this argument. The switch is a hybrid system and will sell more than 3DS and Wiiu combined. So the argument Nintendo home console in decline is bullshit at all. Now Nintendo is the top dog in the Japanese market. And the Wii before expands that home console Nintendo market too. So your point is a false equivalence because you ignoring Wii data and now we not ignoring actual data, the actual data shows the aggravation of the decline for Sony in the Japanese market. PS4 has all the thirds on this side, PS5 will have the same treatment? |
I agree with the first paragraph, as it adds context to your original point. That's more than people who argued the nintendo home console thing. I'm not one of those people, but there are many who have used this argument in the past (and have continued to use so even to today since the switch isn't a true home console). I'm aware that it is a false equivliancy for the reason there is evidence to support your argument, but it is not a false equilvilancy for the evidence you chose to provide.
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