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Kakadu18 on 02 April 2021
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Kai_Mao said:
Otter said:

Do you expect PS5 to sell at peak switch levels in Japan? What was the last dedicated home console to see averages of 80-100k per week? Its all relative to expectations and past performance. The PS5 has been selling significantly better than the PS4 now that stock is available. The question is whether it can maintain that lead over its predecessor, not really whether it can catch up to Switch

I personally don’t know what to think of the PS5’s future performance. Sure, it’s significantly better now. But what about 2-3 years from now? Or 4-5 years? It’s interesting because:

1) software sales don’t appear to align with the hardware sales in Japan. Not a single PS5 in the top 30. Sure you can say “no digital,” but you can say that with  a good amount of the games in the top 30, especially Nintendo games in which they don’t disclose digital sales on the weekly charts.

2) Will games like RE8, FFXVI, etc., make enough of a difference to maintain pace above PS4? The PS4 had all the big third party titles from Japan and it just missed the 10 million mark in terms of hardware sales. How does that happen? Especially when the Switch is completely out lapping the entire competition. And it’s not like games like DQ, FF, or MH are some nice quality franchises. Some would argue that their prestige is up there with the Mario’s and Pokémon’s in Japan. So much that we usually expect LTD sales in at least 1-2 million for new entries in these respective franchises. And now you have smaller Japanese titles no longer ignoring the Switch and the sales potential behind that user base.

I guess the main goal would be to have the PS5 above 10 million LTD in Japan. But even then, I don’t know if that’s a guarantee. We’ll just have to see if hardware sales legs will last for PS5 beyond the launch year period.

Final Fantasy has been declining in Japan for a long time now. FFXV sold just over 1 million copies. It's nowhere near even DQ anymore. If FFXVI sells more than XV I will be surprised.

The PS5 will most likely sell less than the PS4 LT. I don't see any reason for it to do better. Starting with the PS3 the Playstation brand has seen a decline in Japan and with the Switch dominating the market I don't see the PS5 stopping this decline. My guess is the PS5 will sell 8mil at most.