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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The Beautiful, Yet So BOLD Prediction! The Nintendo Switch... 200Mil!

 

What do you expect for NSW lifetime?

110mil-120mil 9 10.71%
 
Roughly 130mil-145mil 22 26.19%
 
145mil-160mil (ps2/DS range) 25 29.76%
 
161mil-189mil best selling Console ever 22 26.19%
 
190mil-200mil+ (BOLD) 6 7.14%
 
Total:84
tbone51 said:


I got the updated one for y’all here. Hopefully I don’t look like a fool in a year or 2 lmao...

Near 200mil NSW will be shipped Worldwide by its end!!! (So 190mil+)

Here is shipments and forecast of how it happens...

NSW By Fiscal Years(currently 68.27mil)

Y17: 2.74mil
Y18: 15.05mil
Y19: 16.93mil
Y20: 21.03mil
Y21: 30.00mil (24.01mil Currently)

Y22: 31.00mil
Y23: 24.50mil
Y24: 18.25mil
Y25: 13.25mil
Y26: 9.00mil
Y27+ 10mil Another few years

Total: A lot

Reference.......

Best selling consoles are

PS2: 160mil+
DS: 150mil+
PS4: 115mil-120mil

Since when ps2 sales passed 160mil?



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Waiting for more details on positioning/execution of Pro model, but leaning yes.



When others said 200m, we laughed. When tbone says 200m, we start crunching numbers.

I think a requirement for this to even be possible is that the "Switch Pro" would have to be so solid an upgrade that a massive portion of existing owners would get it. If that was the case it could help sales stay incredibly strong for years, but it would still need an extra long lifespan as well.
We've defintely reached the point where I think it has a very good shot at becoming the best-selling system ever, but for now ~165m is what I would put my money on.

Last edited by UnderwaterFunktown - on 18 March 2021

Major Switch Titles Launch Aligned

2021 predictions:

  • Switch - 27m
  • PS5 - 15.5m
  • Xbox Series - 10m

HoangNhatAnh said:
tbone51 said:


I got the updated one for y’all here. Hopefully I don’t look like a fool in a year or 2 lmao...

Near 200mil NSW will be shipped Worldwide by its end!!! (So 190mil+)

Here is shipments and forecast of how it happens...

NSW By Fiscal Years(currently 68.27mil)

Y17: 2.74mil
Y18: 15.05mil
Y19: 16.93mil
Y20: 21.03mil
Y21: 30.00mil (24.01mil Currently)

Y22: 31.00mil
Y23: 24.50mil
Y24: 18.25mil
Y25: 13.25mil
Y26: 9.00mil
Y27+ 10mil Another few years

Total: A lot

Reference.......

Best selling consoles are

PS2: 160mil+
DS: 150mil+
PS4: 115mil-120mil

Since when ps2 sales passed 160mil?

It didn't.



Well, I think it is safe to assume that Switch will get the third-best selling console of all time with 130M+. There is a 5050 chance (pretty good) Switch sells past 150M and may even become the best selling console of all time.Even the 160M-180M might be a possibility, albeit smaller. But 200M, this is too bold for my old heart, I can't take it.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

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bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

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I voted for 190-200 mil. because I think the Switch Pro will be a substantial upgrade, many will upgrade and substantial more new consumers will come on board (also 2-4 Switches per family with Switch Light at $120-150 and original Switch at $200-250 after some price cuts). Further, I think we will have another upgrade to the Switch Light which makes it more attractive and brings in people who stayed away from the current Switch Light because of various reasons.

The run with the Nintendo Switch is just amazing, the most enjoyable ride in the console world so far for me. Just think about it, when the Switch was announced some thought it will be a turd like the Wii U, some where guessing if it can sell 30 mil., then later we guessed if it can crack 50 mil., then 80 mil., then people guessed if it can outsell the Wii (people where laughed at first who came up with that guess) to become the most successful Nintendo home console, then if it can outsell the PS4 (again people where laughed at first), then some where speculating if it can become the most successful console of all times, outselling the DS and PS2, again, first, people coming with that numbers where laughed at and now? The numbers of believers increase each day!



Recently Nintendo said that Switch's successor will have to be something new. While that can be interpreted as Nintendo being up to something stupid, it's equally possible that this means that Nintendo is aiming for Switch to be an iterative platform, meaning that its lifecycle before replacement is supposed to go far beyond conventional norms of six to seven years for successful consoles.

An iterative platform would mean that Nintendo launches major revisions about every four years where first and third party developers alike can decide which iterations of the Switch platform can run their games. This is most comparable to the Game Boy and Game Boy Color relationship where the Color revision eventually turned into a quasi-successor. However, development priority isn't going to see such a drastic shift on Switch, because the magnitude of going from black and white games to colorful games is much, much greater than whatever a Switch revision can pull off.

The interesting thing about Switch is that it could get multiple such revisions. What we'll probably see later this year won't be something unusual, because for the concept of the iterative platform to be really confirmed, we'd need another major Switch revision in late 2024 or 2025. Only then would the typical generational cycle be abolished, because Switch in 2017 and Switch Plus in 2021 followed by Switch 2 in 2024 or 2025 would be keeping the status quo.

That being said, it should now provide an idea how Switch can cross the 200m mark, because with a traditional lifecycle it is very difficult to line up realistic numbers and end up with such a high figure. But if we began talking about Switch being Nintendo's main platform for 10+ years, we'd be able to spread out a 200m tally much easier across all the individual years.

As for the reason why Nintendo would break away from the traditional cycle, it might just be for the same reason why the separation between home consoles and handheld consoles has been abolished. Technology made it feasible to have a 2-in-1 device, so why should technology continue to determine the launch of entirely new consoles? It's something that people stick to because that's how it is without giving it any further thought. It's simply accepted that it is how it is.

Console generations became a thing in the first place because technology evolved and resulted in new opportunities for gameplay, so new generations weren't just about better graphics and sound for old concepts. But now that we are at a point where there should be virtually universal agreement that more processing power won't provide any leaps in gameplay anymore, why should it still be necessary to make that hard cut from one console generation to the next? That might be what Nintendo is considering, that they won't have to start with an installed base from scratch again if they make improved use of the already established practice of console revisions and take it a bit further.

I am running out of time right now, so I'll end my post here. But there's of course more to discuss regarding this idea.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Kakadu18 said:
HoangNhatAnh said:

Since when ps2 sales passed 160mil?

It didn't.

Exactly.



RolStoppable said:

Recently Nintendo said that Switch's successor will have to be something new. While that can be interpreted as Nintendo being up to something stupid, it's equally possible that this means that Nintendo is aiming for Switch to be an iterative platform, meaning that its lifecycle before replacement is supposed to go far beyond conventional norms of six to seven years for successful consoles.

An iterative platform would mean that Nintendo launches major revisions about every four years where first and third party developers alike can decide which iterations of the Switch platform can run their games. This is most comparable to the Game Boy and Game Boy Color relationship where the Color revision eventually turned into a quasi-successor. However, development priority isn't going to see such a drastic shift on Switch, because the magnitude of going from black and white games to colorful games is much, much greater than whatever a Switch revision can pull off.

The interesting thing about Switch is that it could get multiple such revisions. What we'll probably see later this year won't be something unusual, because for the concept of the iterative platform to be really confirmed, we'd need another major Switch revision in late 2024 or 2025. Only then would the typical generational cycle be abolished, because Switch in 2017 and Switch Plus in 2021 followed by Switch 2 in 2024 or 2025 would be keeping the status quo.

That being said, it should now provide an idea how Switch can cross the 200m mark, because with a traditional lifecycle it is very difficult to line up realistic numbers and end up with such a high figure. But if we began talking about Switch being Nintendo's main platform for 10+ years, we'd be able to spread out a 200m tally much easier across all the individual years.

As for the reason why Nintendo would break away from the traditional cycle, it might just be for the same reason why the separation between home consoles and handheld consoles has been abolished. Technology made it feasible to have a 2-in-1 device, so why should technology continue to determine the launch of entirely new consoles? It's something that people stick to because that's how it is without giving it any further thought. It's simply accepted that it is how it is.

Console generations became a thing in the first place because technology evolved and resulted in new opportunities for gameplay, so new generations weren't just about better graphics and sound for old concepts. But now that we are at a point where there should be virtually universal agreement that more processing power won't provide any leaps in gameplay anymore, why should it still be necessary to make that hard cut from one console generation to the next? That might be what Nintendo is considering, that they won't have to start with an installed base from scratch again if they make improved use of the already established practice of console revisions and take it a bit further.

I am running out of time right now, so I'll end my post here. But there's of course more to discuss regarding this idea.

Does anybody else get excited when Rol posts on the forum? I genuinely do. They are always such well thought out replies. The forum wouldn't be the same without them.



Soren0079 said:
RolStoppable said:

Recently Nintendo said that Switch's successor will have to be something new. While that can be interpreted as Nintendo being up to something stupid, it's equally possible that this means that Nintendo is aiming for Switch to be an iterative platform, meaning that its lifecycle before replacement is supposed to go far beyond conventional norms of six to seven years for successful consoles.

An iterative platform would mean that Nintendo launches major revisions about every four years where first and third party developers alike can decide which iterations of the Switch platform can run their games. This is most comparable to the Game Boy and Game Boy Color relationship where the Color revision eventually turned into a quasi-successor. However, development priority isn't going to see such a drastic shift on Switch, because the magnitude of going from black and white games to colorful games is much, much greater than whatever a Switch revision can pull off.

The interesting thing about Switch is that it could get multiple such revisions. What we'll probably see later this year won't be something unusual, because for the concept of the iterative platform to be really confirmed, we'd need another major Switch revision in late 2024 or 2025. Only then would the typical generational cycle be abolished, because Switch in 2017 and Switch Plus in 2021 followed by Switch 2 in 2024 or 2025 would be keeping the status quo.

That being said, it should now provide an idea how Switch can cross the 200m mark, because with a traditional lifecycle it is very difficult to line up realistic numbers and end up with such a high figure. But if we began talking about Switch being Nintendo's main platform for 10+ years, we'd be able to spread out a 200m tally much easier across all the individual years.

As for the reason why Nintendo would break away from the traditional cycle, it might just be for the same reason why the separation between home consoles and handheld consoles has been abolished. Technology made it feasible to have a 2-in-1 device, so why should technology continue to determine the launch of entirely new consoles? It's something that people stick to because that's how it is without giving it any further thought. It's simply accepted that it is how it is.

Console generations became a thing in the first place because technology evolved and resulted in new opportunities for gameplay, so new generations weren't just about better graphics and sound for old concepts. But now that we are at a point where there should be virtually universal agreement that more processing power won't provide any leaps in gameplay anymore, why should it still be necessary to make that hard cut from one console generation to the next? That might be what Nintendo is considering, that they won't have to start with an installed base from scratch again if they make improved use of the already established practice of console revisions and take it a bit further.

I am running out of time right now, so I'll end my post here. But there's of course more to discuss regarding this idea.

Does anybody else get excited when Rol posts on the forum? I genuinely do. They are always such well thought out replies. The forum wouldn't be the same without them.

Yeap! When I can’t explain anything in words, I’m waiting for him to explain lol