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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The Beautiful, Yet So BOLD Prediction! The Nintendo Switch... 200Mil!

 

What do you expect for NSW lifetime?

110mil-120mil 9 10.71%
 
Roughly 130mil-145mil 22 26.19%
 
145mil-160mil (ps2/DS range) 25 29.76%
 
161mil-189mil best selling Console ever 22 26.19%
 
190mil-200mil+ (BOLD) 6 7.14%
 
Total:84
RolStoppable said:

Recently Nintendo said that Switch's successor will have to be something new. While that can be interpreted as Nintendo being up to something stupid, it's equally possible that this means that Nintendo is aiming for Switch to be an iterative platform, meaning that its lifecycle before replacement is supposed to go far beyond conventional norms of six to seven years for successful consoles.

An iterative platform would mean that Nintendo launches major revisions about every four years where first and third party developers alike can decide which iterations of the Switch platform can run their games. This is most comparable to the Game Boy and Game Boy Color relationship where the Color revision eventually turned into a quasi-successor. However, development priority isn't going to see such a drastic shift on Switch, because the magnitude of going from black and white games to colorful games is much, much greater than whatever a Switch revision can pull off.

The interesting thing about Switch is that it could get multiple such revisions. What we'll probably see later this year won't be something unusual, because for the concept of the iterative platform to be really confirmed, we'd need another major Switch revision in late 2024 or 2025. Only then would the typical generational cycle be abolished, because Switch in 2017 and Switch Plus in 2021 followed by Switch 2 in 2024 or 2025 would be keeping the status quo.

That being said, it should now provide an idea how Switch can cross the 200m mark, because with a traditional lifecycle it is very difficult to line up realistic numbers and end up with such a high figure. But if we began talking about Switch being Nintendo's main platform for 10+ years, we'd be able to spread out a 200m tally much easier across all the individual years.

As for the reason why Nintendo would break away from the traditional cycle, it might just be for the same reason why the separation between home consoles and handheld consoles has been abolished. Technology made it feasible to have a 2-in-1 device, so why should technology continue to determine the launch of entirely new consoles? It's something that people stick to because that's how it is without giving it any further thought. It's simply accepted that it is how it is.

Console generations became a thing in the first place because technology evolved and resulted in new opportunities for gameplay, so new generations weren't just about better graphics and sound for old concepts. But now that we are at a point where there should be virtually universal agreement that more processing power won't provide any leaps in gameplay anymore, why should it still be necessary to make that hard cut from one console generation to the next? That might be what Nintendo is considering, that they won't have to start with an installed base from scratch again if they make improved use of the already established practice of console revisions and take it a bit further.

I am running out of time right now, so I'll end my post here. But there's of course more to discuss regarding this idea.

Iterations are the way to go, IMO, and Nintendo has been hinting toward it since the era of Iwata.

Nintendo is on the right path with ARM chips, they have become incredibly versatile in the last few years (Switch is part of proving that). I also think it's the future of gaming consoles as a whole, while Xbox and PS5 are X86, there's a high chance PS6 and Xbox Series Y/THREE/363/whatever will be ARM.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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The Switch selling well is great and all but are we forgetting the Wii? For four years straight it trounced the competition but what did it have to show for itself? If you think I am simply talking about the failure of the Wii U or the fact that it's sales fell of a cliff in the fifth year then you'd be wrong. Off course there is still the chance that it may happen, nobody ever saw it so with the Wii because it was supposed to change gaming.

Instead I am talking about the fact that a Nintendo platform selling is only good for Nintendo. Third-party sales are still nowhere to be seen. Yes there are some token titles thrown at the system, usually beyond compromise, and yes the fanbase will eat them up. But ultimate third-party has little presence on the system and that means that the told number of units sold will remain meaningless. If we go by that logic, we can not only add up Sony + MS sales, but also the base console sales too! The base PS4 is still leaps and bounds more powerful than the Switch and the ports that the Sony system will get at least are competitive (I mean that both literally too, check out Apex Legends if you don't believe me).



DitchPlaya said:

The Switch selling well is great and all but are we forgetting the Wii? For four years straight it trounced the competition but what did it have to show for itself? If you think I am simply talking about the failure of the Wii U or the fact that it's sales fell of a cliff in the fifth year then you'd be wrong. Off course there is still the chance that it may happen, nobody ever saw it so with the Wii because it was supposed to change gaming.

Instead I am talking about the fact that a Nintendo platform selling is only good for Nintendo. Third-party sales are still nowhere to be seen. Yes there are some token titles thrown at the system, usually beyond compromise, and yes the fanbase will eat them up. But ultimate third-party has little presence on the system and that means that the told number of units sold will remain meaningless. If we go by that logic, we can not only add up Sony + MS sales, but also the base console sales too! The base PS4 is still leaps and bounds more powerful than the Switch and the ports that the Sony system will get at least are competitive (I mean that both literally too, check out Apex Legends if you don't believe me).

Aren't we over that already many times? Yes, big western AAA 3rd-party is not present, but japanese, AA-games and indies are very well present. And the data suggest, that they sell as well and better than on other platforms. For japanese game devs especially, if they ignore Switch at this point they could commit suicide as well.

The 3rd-party output for this year includes: Monster Hunter Rise, Disgaea 6 (which isn't releasing on PS, because the sales aren't there on that platform), Ys IX, Monster Hunter Stories and already got Bravely Default 2 and Story of Seasons. And alongside a lot of smaller titles. So declaring the absence of 3rd-parties seems kinda obsolete. Yes, no COD and Battlefield, but that didn't stop the Switch from selling so far.



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Mnementh said:
DitchPlaya said:

The Switch selling well is great and all but are we forgetting the Wii? For four years straight it trounced the competition but what did it have to show for itself? If you think I am simply talking about the failure of the Wii U or the fact that it's sales fell of a cliff in the fifth year then you'd be wrong. Off course there is still the chance that it may happen, nobody ever saw it so with the Wii because it was supposed to change gaming.

Instead I am talking about the fact that a Nintendo platform selling is only good for Nintendo. Third-party sales are still nowhere to be seen. Yes there are some token titles thrown at the system, usually beyond compromise, and yes the fanbase will eat them up. But ultimate third-party has little presence on the system and that means that the told number of units sold will remain meaningless. If we go by that logic, we can not only add up Sony + MS sales, but also the base console sales too! The base PS4 is still leaps and bounds more powerful than the Switch and the ports that the Sony system will get at least are competitive (I mean that both literally too, check out Apex Legends if you don't believe me).

Aren't we over that already many times? Yes, big western AAA 3rd-party is not present, but japanese, AA-games and indies are very well present. And the data suggest, that they sell as well and better than on other platforms. For japanese game devs especially, if they ignore Switch at this point they could commit suicide as well.

The 3rd-party output for this year includes: Monster Hunter Rise, Disgaea 6 (which isn't releasing on PS, because the sales aren't there on that platform), Ys IX, Monster Hunter Stories and already got Bravely Default 2 and Story of Seasons. And alongside a lot of smaller titles. So declaring the absence of 3rd-parties seems kinda obsolete. Yes, no COD and Battlefield, but that didn't stop the Switch from selling so far.

Just to add to this, even the claim that no western AAA titles are "nowhere to be seen" is bullshit. Wolfenstein, Doom, Diablo, Witcher 3 Wild Hunt, Crysis remastered, Metro 2033 and Last Night, Mortal Kombat 11, Borderlands, Civilization, Assassin's Creed, all those eSport titles... there are tons of western AAA titles on the Switch.

Really, the only things that are really missing are CoD, Battlefield and non-legacy versions of EA sports titles. For the rest, the Switch has all the big names on it.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 21 March 2021

NSW gonna fall off a cliff any minute now. Comparisons to wii are hilarious going into its 5th year and show people who think it’s gonna just take a dive any minute now don’t know how to judge sales at all



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DitchPlaya said:

The Switch selling well is great and all but are we forgetting the Wii? For four years straight it trounced the competition but what did it have to show for itself? If you think I am simply talking about the failure of the Wii U or the fact that it's sales fell of a cliff in the fifth year then you'd be wrong. Off course there is still the chance that it may happen, nobody ever saw it so with the Wii because it was supposed to change gaming.

Instead I am talking about the fact that a Nintendo platform selling is only good for Nintendo. Third-party sales are still nowhere to be seen. Yes there are some token titles thrown at the system, usually beyond compromise, and yes the fanbase will eat them up. But ultimate third-party has little presence on the system and that means that the told number of units sold will remain meaningless. If we go by that logic, we can not only add up Sony + MS sales, but also the base console sales too! The base PS4 is still leaps and bounds more powerful than the Switch and the ports that the Sony system will get at least are competitive (I mean that both literally too, check out Apex Legends if you don't believe me).

This is false, there are literally thousands of third party games on Switch.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Well, it's certainly a bold prediction. I'd say something like "I'll eat my hat if that happens", but I don't fancy risking it, even though it's incredibly unlikely.

The Switch has consistently out-performed my own expectations. I didn't think it had a shot at PS2 at all and would probably finish behind PS4. I now think it'll easily pass the PS4 and, while the PS2 total is still a tall order because it would require a lot of staying power, I now wouldn't bet against it (whereas I would have a year ago).

@RolStoppable  further up the thread brought up the possibility of iteration giving it that staying power, and technology no longer requiring clean breaks. I agree that technology is no longer that all important driver of new console cycles, at least not for Nintendo. But consumer demand falling off will I think remain a very important driver of new console cycles.

The question is if Nintendo, should it go down the iteration route, is able to sell its existing consumer base on the need to upgrade and also expand that base by appealing to those who haven't yet bought in. I dunno, I think that will be a real challenge. It worked for Sony & MS for just a couple of years in each of the last two generations, but it's only ever really a stop-gap measure; a way to ring out the cycle for a couple more years (and squeeze two console purchases out of the very dedicated fans) while they build towards the next console. Can Nintendo offer something more than that to add more than just a year or two to its lifespan (which is what's needed for anything like 200 million)? I'm not convinced.

I think consumer demand for Switch and its iterations falling off (and latent demand for a wholly new platform being very strong) is what will force Nintendo to offer a new platform, completely independent of technologic advances or any potential desire on Nintendo's part to somehow end clear cut console cycles. 



The_Liquid_Laser said:
RolStoppable said:

Recently Nintendo said that Switch's successor will have to be something new. 

(...)

Do you have a link to where they said this?  I really don't like it when Nintendo says stuff like this.

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/nintendos-president-says-switchs-successor-will-need-to-offer-a-new-experience/

The exact wording is much less concerning. It doesn't go in a direction where Switch's successor won't be a hybrid console.

DitchPlaya said:

The Switch selling well is great and all but are we forgetting the Wii? For four years straight it trounced the competition but what did it have to show for itself? If you think I am simply talking about the failure of the Wii U or the fact that it's sales fell of a cliff in the fifth year then you'd be wrong. Off course there is still the chance that it may happen, nobody ever saw it so with the Wii because it was supposed to change gaming.

Instead I am talking about the fact that a Nintendo platform selling is only good for Nintendo. Third-party sales are still nowhere to be seen. Yes there are some token titles thrown at the system, usually beyond compromise, and yes the fanbase will eat them up. But ultimate third-party has little presence on the system and that means that the told number of units sold will remain meaningless. If we go by that logic, we can not only add up Sony + MS sales, but also the base console sales too! The base PS4 is still leaps and bounds more powerful than the Switch and the ports that the Sony system will get at least are competitive (I mean that both literally too, check out Apex Legends if you don't believe me).

With a statement like this, you do not only out yourself as lacking knowledge, but also that you choose to be willfully ignorant because you desire to hold on to a narrative that is propagated by people who are unable to cope with Nintendo's success.

Fact is that more than 100 million units of third party software will be sold on Switch in the current fiscal year and this excludes digital-only games.



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RolStoppable said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Do you have a link to where they said this?  I really don't like it when Nintendo says stuff like this.

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/nintendos-president-says-switchs-successor-will-need-to-offer-a-new-experience/

The exact wording is much less concerning. It doesn't go in a direction where Switch's successor won't be a hybrid console.

This sounds fine, because it sounds like the same types of things that Iwata used to say.  "New experiences" could mean anything though.  The Switch's successor could be a "Super Switch" or they might take it in a completely new direction.  I do like that he seems to be following the same philosophy as Iwata.



Here are my prediction ranges:

200 Million is potentially achievable, given that even only 28 Million this year with stable drops would be enough to get the Switch to 175 Million LTD.  

I am currently in the 165-175 Million Camp, but with a slight caveat, which is if the Switch does >31 Million this year as the trends currently suggest, then 200 Million becomes exponentially more likely.

Last edited by CheddarPlease - on 23 May 2021