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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The Beautiful, Yet So BOLD Prediction! The Nintendo Switch... 200Mil!

 

What do you expect for NSW lifetime?

110mil-120mil 9 10.71%
 
Roughly 130mil-145mil 22 26.19%
 
145mil-160mil (ps2/DS range) 25 29.76%
 
161mil-189mil best selling Console ever 22 26.19%
 
190mil-200mil+ (BOLD) 6 7.14%
 
Total:84
Bofferbrauer2 on 21 March 2021
Mnementh said:
DitchPlaya said:

The Switch selling well is great and all but are we forgetting the Wii? For four years straight it trounced the competition but what did it have to show for itself? If you think I am simply talking about the failure of the Wii U or the fact that it's sales fell of a cliff in the fifth year then you'd be wrong. Off course there is still the chance that it may happen, nobody ever saw it so with the Wii because it was supposed to change gaming.

Instead I am talking about the fact that a Nintendo platform selling is only good for Nintendo. Third-party sales are still nowhere to be seen. Yes there are some token titles thrown at the system, usually beyond compromise, and yes the fanbase will eat them up. But ultimate third-party has little presence on the system and that means that the told number of units sold will remain meaningless. If we go by that logic, we can not only add up Sony + MS sales, but also the base console sales too! The base PS4 is still leaps and bounds more powerful than the Switch and the ports that the Sony system will get at least are competitive (I mean that both literally too, check out Apex Legends if you don't believe me).

Aren't we over that already many times? Yes, big western AAA 3rd-party is not present, but japanese, AA-games and indies are very well present. And the data suggest, that they sell as well and better than on other platforms. For japanese game devs especially, if they ignore Switch at this point they could commit suicide as well.

The 3rd-party output for this year includes: Monster Hunter Rise, Disgaea 6 (which isn't releasing on PS, because the sales aren't there on that platform), Ys IX, Monster Hunter Stories and already got Bravely Default 2 and Story of Seasons. And alongside a lot of smaller titles. So declaring the absence of 3rd-parties seems kinda obsolete. Yes, no COD and Battlefield, but that didn't stop the Switch from selling so far.

Just to add to this, even the claim that no western AAA titles are "nowhere to be seen" is bullshit. Wolfenstein, Doom, Diablo, Witcher 3 Wild Hunt, Crysis remastered, Metro 2033 and Last Night, Mortal Kombat 11, Borderlands, Civilization, Assassin's Creed, all those eSport titles... there are tons of western AAA titles on the Switch.

Really, the only things that are really missing are CoD, Battlefield and non-legacy versions of EA sports titles. For the rest, the Switch has all the big names on it.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 21 March 2021

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tbone51 on 21 March 2021

NSW gonna fall off a cliff any minute now. Comparisons to wii are hilarious going into its 5th year and show people who think it’s gonna just take a dive any minute now don’t know how to judge sales at all



Jumpin on 21 March 2021
DitchPlaya said:

The Switch selling well is great and all but are we forgetting the Wii? For four years straight it trounced the competition but what did it have to show for itself? If you think I am simply talking about the failure of the Wii U or the fact that it's sales fell of a cliff in the fifth year then you'd be wrong. Off course there is still the chance that it may happen, nobody ever saw it so with the Wii because it was supposed to change gaming.

Instead I am talking about the fact that a Nintendo platform selling is only good for Nintendo. Third-party sales are still nowhere to be seen. Yes there are some token titles thrown at the system, usually beyond compromise, and yes the fanbase will eat them up. But ultimate third-party has little presence on the system and that means that the told number of units sold will remain meaningless. If we go by that logic, we can not only add up Sony + MS sales, but also the base console sales too! The base PS4 is still leaps and bounds more powerful than the Switch and the ports that the Sony system will get at least are competitive (I mean that both literally too, check out Apex Legends if you don't believe me).

This is false, there are literally thousands of third party games on Switch.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

The_Liquid_Laser on 22 March 2021
RolStoppable said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Do you have a link to where they said this?  I really don't like it when Nintendo says stuff like this.

https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/nintendos-president-says-switchs-successor-will-need-to-offer-a-new-experience/

The exact wording is much less concerning. It doesn't go in a direction where Switch's successor won't be a hybrid console.

This sounds fine, because it sounds like the same types of things that Iwata used to say.  "New experiences" could mean anything though.  The Switch's successor could be a "Super Switch" or they might take it in a completely new direction.  I do like that he seems to be following the same philosophy as Iwata.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
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CheddarPlease on 23 May 2021

Here are my prediction ranges:

200 Million is potentially achievable, given that even only 28 Million this year with stable drops would be enough to get the Switch to 175 Million LTD.  

I am currently in the 165-175 Million Camp, but with a slight caveat, which is if the Switch does >31 Million this year as the trends currently suggest, then 200 Million becomes exponentially more likely.

Last edited by CheddarPlease - on 23 May 2021

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tbone51 on 24 May 2021
CheddarPlease said:

Here are my prediction ranges:

200 Million is potentially achievable, given that even only 28 Million this year with stable drops would be enough to get the Switch to 175 Million LTD.  

I am currently in the 165-175 Million Camp, but with a slight caveat, which is if the Switch does >31 Million this year as the trends currently suggest, then 200 Million becomes exponentially more likely.

You went all in, I like it. I respect the “potentially achievable”. When I make bold claims I tend to make it have somewhat of a chance even if it’s most likely wrong. Thank god I haven’t embarrassed myself to much and half of the bold predictions come true (sometimes even close if I’m wrong)



scottslater on 24 May 2021
DitchPlaya said:

The Switch selling well is great and all but are we forgetting the Wii? For four years straight it trounced the competition but what did it have to show for itself? If you think I am simply talking about the failure of the Wii U or the fact that it's sales fell of a cliff in the fifth year then you'd be wrong. Off course there is still the chance that it may happen, nobody ever saw it so with the Wii because it was supposed to change gaming.

Instead I am talking about the fact that a Nintendo platform selling is only good for Nintendo. Third-party sales are still nowhere to be seen. Yes there are some token titles thrown at the system, usually beyond compromise, and yes the fanbase will eat them up. But ultimate third-party has little presence on the system and that means that the told number of units sold will remain meaningless. If we go by that logic, we can not only add up Sony + MS sales, but also the base console sales too! The base PS4 is still leaps and bounds more powerful than the Switch and the ports that the Sony system will get at least are competitive (I mean that both literally too, check out Apex Legends if you don't believe me).

Wii did change gaming, there is a reason it is still in high demand. If Nintendo would have released an HD version of the Wii it likely would have been the best selling hardware of all time.

And "... a Nintendo platform selling is only good for Nintendo." is about the dumbest comment I've ever seen. They push the boundaries for a reason and it moves the gaming industry forward. 3rd party games are highly successful on the Switch. I don't understand your point of adding Sony + Microsoft sales and the base console sales as well... are you saying that Sony and Microsoft should add their console sales together because they rely on companies like EA to carry them so they're basically the same console? It's Nintendo vs SonySoft now just to try and keep Nintendo from claiming a title?



Nintendo with the Switch:

HoangNhatAnh on 24 May 2021
DitchPlaya said:

The Switch selling well is great and all but are we forgetting the Wii? For four years straight it trounced the competition but what did it have to show for itself? If you think I am simply talking about the failure of the Wii U or the fact that it's sales fell of a cliff in the fifth year then you'd be wrong. Off course there is still the chance that it may happen, nobody ever saw it so with the Wii because it was supposed to change gaming.

Instead I am talking about the fact that a Nintendo platform selling is only good for Nintendo. Third-party sales are still nowhere to be seen. Yes there are some token titles thrown at the system, usually beyond compromise, and yes the fanbase will eat them up. But ultimate third-party has little presence on the system and that means that the told number of units sold will remain meaningless. If we go by that logic, we can not only add up Sony + MS sales, but also the base console sales too! The base PS4 is still leaps and bounds more powerful than the Switch and the ports that the Sony system will get at least are competitive (I mean that both literally too, check out Apex Legends if you don't believe me).

Tell that to Capcom, Square, Koei, Marvelous, NIS or any 3rd party studio who put their games on Switch, they keep making/porting games to Switch. And why did you combine MS + Sony vs Nintendo? Or you're afraid that either of them wouldn't be strong enough to face Switch alone? Besides, Sony and MS can never be the same side, MS + Nin vs Sony sound more convincing.