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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The Beautiful, Yet So BOLD Prediction! The Nintendo Switch... 200Mil!

 

What do you expect for NSW lifetime?

110mil-120mil 9 10.71%
 
Roughly 130mil-145mil 22 26.19%
 
145mil-160mil (ps2/DS range) 25 29.76%
 
161mil-189mil best selling Console ever 22 26.19%
 
190mil-200mil+ (BOLD) 6 7.14%
 
Total:84

I'm willing to be proven wrong years from now, but this is indeed a very bold prediction. I really don't see this happening. My current prediction for Switch is 125 million, and I don't see it going any higher than 140 million.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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tbone51 said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

I know it will backfire but IDGAF 

I'm IN

My current predictions:

2021: 30-32 million (peak)

2022: 22-24 million 

2023: 16-18 million 

2024: 11-12 million (speculations of Wwitch successor starts to pop up)

2025: 9-11 million (Switch2 launch year)

2026: 6-8 million 

2027+: 7 million

Lifetime: 198-205 million 

See you in 5 years 

I’m sorry I’m a number asshole, but your numbers add up to 181mil-192mil 😉 

Maths doesn't matter for this prediction to happen :p 



IcaroRibeiro said:
tbone51 said:

I’m sorry I’m a number asshole, but your numbers add up to 181mil-192mil 😉 

Maths doesn't matter for this prediction to happen :p 

Understandable, proceed



*looks at OP*

Whelp that seals it. 200 mil it is!



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Animal Crossing NH Dream Address: DA-1078-9916-3261

It depends, but I'm willing to believe.



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I think this is way too bold, but T-Bone is like the anti-Pachter, so now I think it may happen.

Personally, I don't see it unless there is something that is closer to a "Switch 2" that is counted in Switch sales.



I'm willing to bet it'll be the best selling console of all time IF Nintendo tries to lengthen it's Lifetime presence until 2024-2025.

200M however huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuh *shrugs*



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Nintendo Switch (79.87 million) as of Dec. 31, 2020.

FY16: 2.74m
FY17: 15.05m
FY18: 16.93m
FY19: 21.03m

---------------------------
FY20: 31.00m (86.77m) - End of current fiscal year (Mar. 31, 2021)
FY21: 27.00m (113.77m) - Switch+ launch; BOTW 2
FY22: 22.50m (136.27m) - Pokémon Gen 9; price cut
FY23: 17.00m (153.27m) - Switch 2 launches
FY24: 9.25m (162.52m)
FY25: 4.50m (167.02m)
FY26+ 3m (Final: 170.02m) - Hardware discontinued

The Switch has a very solid chance of becoming the best selling system of all time. If it has a normal, steady trajectory/decline, it's basically guaranteed, it could even do so even before the launch of the Switch's successor if its legs are stronger than what I project. But 200 million? That's an entirely different beast altogether. It's a possibility, but it would need a lot of things to go its way. 



I think the only way this happens is if Nintendo pulls a Gameboy color where it released and enhanced switch and considers it same family/gen.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

PAOerfulone said:

Nintendo Switch (79.87 million) as of Dec. 31, 2020.

FY16: 2.74m
FY17: 15.05m
FY18: 16.93m
FY19: 21.03m

---------------------------
FY20: 31.00m (86.77m) - End of current fiscal year (Mar. 31, 2021)
FY21: 27.00m (113.77m) - Switch+ launch; BOTW 2
FY22: 22.50m (136.27m) - Pokémon Gen 9; price cut
FY23: 17.00m (153.27m) - Switch 2 launches
FY24: 9.25m (162.52m)
FY25: 4.50m (167.02m)
FY26+ 3m (Final: 170.02m) - Hardware discontinued

The Switch has a very solid chance of becoming the best selling system of all time. If it has a normal, steady trajectory/decline, it's basically guaranteed, it could even do so even before the launch of the Switch's successor if its legs are stronger than what I project. But 200 million? That's an entirely different beast altogether. It's a possibility, but it would need a lot of things to go its way. 

161-179M

and bold prediction, for my part.