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Forums - Nintendo - The Beautiful, Yet So BOLD Prediction! The Nintendo Switch... 200Mil!

 

What do you expect for NSW lifetime?

110mil-120mil 9 10.71%
 
Roughly 130mil-145mil 22 26.19%
 
145mil-160mil (ps2/DS range) 25 29.76%
 
161mil-189mil best selling Console ever 22 26.19%
 
190mil-200mil+ (BOLD) 6 7.14%
 
Total:84
Wman1996 on 17 March 2021

I'm willing to be proven wrong years from now, but this is indeed a very bold prediction. I really don't see this happening. My current prediction for Switch is 125 million, and I don't see it going any higher than 140 million.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 122 million (was 105 million, then 115 million) Xbox Series X/S: 38 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million. then 48 million. then 40 million)

Switch 2: 120 million (was 116 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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IcaroRibeiro on 17 March 2021
tbone51 said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

I know it will backfire but IDGAF 

I'm IN

My current predictions:

2021: 30-32 million (peak)

2022: 22-24 million 

2023: 16-18 million 

2024: 11-12 million (speculations of Wwitch successor starts to pop up)

2025: 9-11 million (Switch2 launch year)

2026: 6-8 million 

2027+: 7 million

Lifetime: 198-205 million 

See you in 5 years 

I’m sorry I’m a number asshole, but your numbers add up to 181mil-192mil 😉 

Maths doesn't matter for this prediction to happen :p 



tbone51 on 17 March 2021
IcaroRibeiro said:
tbone51 said:

I’m sorry I’m a number asshole, but your numbers add up to 181mil-192mil 😉 

Maths doesn't matter for this prediction to happen :p 

Understandable, proceed



Shiken on 17 March 2021

*looks at OP*

Whelp that seals it. 200 mil it is!



Nintendo Switch Friend Code: SW-5643-2927-1984

Animal Crossing NH Dream Address: DA-1078-9916-3261

Kakadu18 on 17 March 2021

It depends, but I'm willing to believe.



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JWeinCom on 17 March 2021

I think this is way too bold, but T-Bone is like the anti-Pachter, so now I think it may happen.

Personally, I don't see it unless there is something that is closer to a "Switch 2" that is counted in Switch sales.



PAOerfulone on 17 March 2021

Nintendo Switch (79.87 million) as of Dec. 31, 2020.

FY16: 2.74m
FY17: 15.05m
FY18: 16.93m
FY19: 21.03m

---------------------------
FY20: 31.00m (86.77m) - End of current fiscal year (Mar. 31, 2021)
FY21: 27.00m (113.77m) - Switch+ launch; BOTW 2
FY22: 22.50m (136.27m) - Pokémon Gen 9; price cut
FY23: 17.00m (153.27m) - Switch 2 launches
FY24: 9.25m (162.52m)
FY25: 4.50m (167.02m)
FY26+ 3m (Final: 170.02m) - Hardware discontinued

The Switch has a very solid chance of becoming the best selling system of all time. If it has a normal, steady trajectory/decline, it's basically guaranteed, it could even do so even before the launch of the Switch's successor if its legs are stronger than what I project. But 200 million? That's an entirely different beast altogether. It's a possibility, but it would need a lot of things to go its way. 



Hardware Comparison Threads:

Current Thread

Switch 1 '25 vs DS '11, 3DS '17, and Wii '12

Older Threads:

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch: 2022 Edition

PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition!
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2019 vs. 2020
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2017 vs. 2018
PlayStation 4: 2015 vs. 2016 vs. 2017

brute on 17 March 2021

I think the only way this happens is if Nintendo pulls a Gameboy color where it released and enhanced switch and considers it same family/gen.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Agente42 on 17 March 2021
PAOerfulone said:

Nintendo Switch (79.87 million) as of Dec. 31, 2020.

FY16: 2.74m
FY17: 15.05m
FY18: 16.93m
FY19: 21.03m

---------------------------
FY20: 31.00m (86.77m) - End of current fiscal year (Mar. 31, 2021)
FY21: 27.00m (113.77m) - Switch+ launch; BOTW 2
FY22: 22.50m (136.27m) - Pokémon Gen 9; price cut
FY23: 17.00m (153.27m) - Switch 2 launches
FY24: 9.25m (162.52m)
FY25: 4.50m (167.02m)
FY26+ 3m (Final: 170.02m) - Hardware discontinued

The Switch has a very solid chance of becoming the best selling system of all time. If it has a normal, steady trajectory/decline, it's basically guaranteed, it could even do so even before the launch of the Switch's successor if its legs are stronger than what I project. But 200 million? That's an entirely different beast altogether. It's a possibility, but it would need a lot of things to go its way. 

161-179M

and bold prediction, for my part. 



HoangNhatAnh on 17 March 2021
tbone51 said:


I got the updated one for y’all here. Hopefully I don’t look like a fool in a year or 2 lmao...

Near 200mil NSW will be shipped Worldwide by its end!!! (So 190mil+)

Here is shipments and forecast of how it happens...

NSW By Fiscal Years(currently 68.27mil)

Y17: 2.74mil
Y18: 15.05mil
Y19: 16.93mil
Y20: 21.03mil
Y21: 30.00mil (24.01mil Currently)

Y22: 31.00mil
Y23: 24.50mil
Y24: 18.25mil
Y25: 13.25mil
Y26: 9.00mil
Y27+ 10mil Another few years

Total: A lot

Reference.......

Best selling consoles are

PS2: 160mil+
DS: 150mil+
PS4: 115mil-120mil

Since when ps2 sales passed 160mil?