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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - The Beautiful, Yet So BOLD Prediction! The Nintendo Switch... 200Mil!

 

What do you expect for NSW lifetime?

110mil-120mil 9 10.71%
 
Roughly 130mil-145mil 22 26.19%
 
145mil-160mil (ps2/DS range) 25 29.76%
 
161mil-189mil best selling Console ever 22 26.19%
 
190mil-200mil+ (BOLD) 6 7.14%
 
Total:84


I got the updated one for y’all here. Hopefully I don’t look like a fool in a year or 2 lmao...

Near 200mil NSW will be shipped Worldwide by its end!!! (So 190mil+)

Here is shipments and forecast of how it happens...

NSW By Fiscal Years(currently 68.27mil)

Y17: 2.74mil
Y18: 15.05mil
Y19: 16.93mil
Y20: 21.03mil
Y21: 30.00mil (24.01mil Currently)

Y22: 31.00mil
Y23: 24.50mil
Y24: 18.25mil
Y25: 13.25mil
Y26: 9.00mil
Y27+ 10mil Another few years

Total: A lot

Reference.......

Best selling consoles are

PS2: 160mil+
DS: 150mil+
PS4: 115mil-120mil



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Ah, gonna be the first! I personally think it is going to end up in the DS/PS2 side of things, but I'm willing to up my game and voted above 161mil. Because... why not? lol



That's... Really bold. I think the Switch will outsell the PS4 soon, but to outsell the DS, the PS2, and hit the 200 million mark is scary. I also believe that the Switch successor will arrive around 2023.

But well, I won't discard it completely. Nintendo already proved a lot of people wrong.



Come on T-Dawg, this is way too bold, even for you.



It will sell a billion, lawmakers around the world will make obligatory the possession of a Switch.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

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I know it will backfire but IDGAF 

I'm IN

My current predictions:

2021: 30-32 million (peak)

2022: 22-24 million 

2023: 16-18 million 

2024: 11-12 million (speculations of Wwitch successor starts to pop up)

2025: 9-11 million (Switch2 launch year)

2026: 6-8 million 

2027+: 7 million

Lifetime: 198-205 million 

See you in 5 years 



I won't underestimate you after all that bold predictions went true. But this is REALLY bold, like the boldest bold prediction.

My guess is:

FY20 - 28.5m
FY21 - 25m
FY22 - 18m
FY23 - 12m
FY24 - 8m
FY25 and beyond - 7m

Total - 154.5m



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IcaroRibeiro said:

I know it will backfire but IDGAF 

I'm IN

My current predictions:

2021: 30-32 million (peak)

2022: 22-24 million 

2023: 16-18 million 

2024: 11-12 million (speculations of Wwitch successor starts to pop up)

2025: 9-11 million (Switch2 launch year)

2026: 6-8 million 

2027+: 7 million

Lifetime: 198-205 million 

See you in 5 years 

I’m sorry I’m a number asshole, but your numbers add up to 181mil-192mil ? 



I voted 161m-189m, but I would love to be wrong on this. I can definitely see 200m+ as a possibility, but I think the 161-189m is more likely.



I love the boldness. I think you're right about how high it will peak over the next couple years and I've agreed for a while that Nintendo plans to give this system more longevity than usual, but I also believe once Nintendo does start to look beyond it (2024-2025) sales will tail off fairly quickly, similar to the PS4 right now. Can't see it adding over 30m units in 2025+.

I'll say it sneaks over 160m, maybe gets to within ~170m, but I won't go any higher than that for now.
FY24: 10-15m
FY25: 5-10m
FY26+: 5-10m

Think that puts me roughly on track. Haven't cracked any real numbers so it's just a general guesstimate.