Oh. Well, according to Nintendo's own internal sell-through figures, the Switch sold something like 25-26M in 2020, bringing the lifetime total to about 74M, up from 48M LTD at the end of 2019 (Nintendo's sell-through figures are rounded down to the nearest million, so there's a slight margin of error). So, if I had to guess actual yearly sales, I'm thinking of maybe 21-22M this year and 16-17M in 2022. Beyond that the margins of error get bigger (as with any long-range forecast) but assuming the Switch's successor releases in March 2024 (giving the Switch a 7-year lifespan), perhaps 11-13M in 2023, 4-6M in 2024, and 2-3M in 2025. So, that's about 54-61M in total from 2021 onward, giving us a lifetime total somewhere in the 128-135M range.

Considering how the Switch has been tracking against the DS (rapidly falling behind in the U.S., and massive and likely insurmountable deficits in Japan & Europe), I don't see it matching the DS, and I think it'll fall considerably short of the 150M mark. That's the main reason why I think the Switch will sell somewhere closer to the 130M mark.

I'm gonna need a source on that claim regarding Nintendo's sell-through. They seem plausible enough. We know that in 2020 the Switch sold 9M in the U.S., likely another ~1M in Canada given the usual U.S./Canada split, and 6M in Japan (using the NPD-equivalent 52-week sales period, not Famitsu's 2020 period). That's 16M right there. While there is often a decent margin of error associate with VGC's sales figures, their 7.4M figure probably isn't grossly off the mark, so that brings the total for the three main regions up to about 23.4M. Once we include RoW, that ~26M figure is probably pretty close.

Is it really that hard to believe? Shipped has never equaled sold. As of the end of 2020, the lifetime sell-through in Japan was sitting at about 17.65M, compared to 18.88M shipped. In the Americas, assuming again the U.S. is 90% of the regional market the LTD for the region is about 29M or so, compared to 31.17 shipped. So, between NA & Japan alone, we're already looking at well over 3 million units that have been shipped but not yet sold.

Looking at other systems, we see pretty much the same thing. For example, the PS4's LTD at the end of its fourth year was 73.6M units sold against 76.5M shipped, leaving 2.9M units unsold.

At this point in a system's life, several million units sitting out there in the wild is not unusual. Nintendo's "over 74 million" figure is not improbable.

I don't think anyone denies that covid gave video gaming sales a boost.

It's more the extent of the role it played that's in dispute. For example, while I absolutely think it contributed to the strong year Nintendo had in 2020, I think it was one factor of many rather than being the sole or majority driver.

Is it really that hard to believe? Shipped has never equaled sold. As of the end of 2020, the lifetime sell-through in Japan was sitting at about 17.65M, compared to 18.88M shipped. In the Americas, assuming again the U.S. is 90% of the regional market the LTD for the region is about 29M or so, compared to 31.17 shipped. So, between NA & Japan alone, we're already looking at well over 3 million units that have been shipped but not yet sold.

Looking at other systems, we see pretty much the same thing. For example, the PS4's LTD at the end of its fourth year was 73.6M units sold against 76.5M shipped, leaving 2.9M units unsold.

At this point in a system's life, several million units sitting out there in the wild is not unusual. Nintendo's "over 74 million" figure is not improbable.

Is it really that hard to believe? Shipped has never equaled sold. As of the end of 2020, the lifetime sell-through in Japan was sitting at about 17.65M, compared to 18.88M shipped. In the Americas, assuming again the U.S. is 90% of the regional market the LTD for the region is about 29M or so, compared to 31.17 shipped. So, between NA & Japan alone, we're already looking at well over 3 million units that have been shipped but not yet sold.

Looking at other systems, we see pretty much the same thing. For example, the PS4's LTD at the end of its fourth year was 73.6M units sold against 76.5M shipped, leaving 2.9M units unsold.

At this point in a system's life, several million units sitting out there in the wild is not unusual. Nintendo's "over 74 million" figure is not improbable.

If you are using Famitsu sell through then the numbers are missing Nintendo online sales. Famitsu doesnt track those.

Just look at 3ds shipped vs sell through. And we know there is no chance 3ds has that many in Japan shelves.

Additionally, I dont have the numbers in front of me but Switch is performing better in Canada relative to % of Americas.

Id put Switch US sales at around 85% of Americas, and not 90%.

Plus Ninty sell through has always been proven inaccurate as Nintendo usually on references sales for NA, EU and Japan. Theyve even mentioned this in their reports.

But you probably already knew all this being the sales numbers person that you are.

famitsu don't tracker amazon neither nintendo store. The numbers of physical games and consoles aways don't match because of this. And famistsu digital is a joke estimation. 

Shadow again make wrong conclusion? For someone alleged knows make one market analysis, u need to study the trackers better. 

6m on the shelves? Console with short supply in US/Japan/Europe and 6 m on the shelves?

Historically, Nintendo Estimation sold numbers is low bar and worst-case scenario. It's funny 6m on the shelves and all the retailers in the world with OG low or zero stock situation. U don't research this? Look the availability? it's seem you don't make this.

Dunno if this proves a point but next quarterly results NSW should be less than 2mil of shadow is right. That many consoles still on store shelves than why is retailers letting Nintendo ship so many and this combined with shortages especially in the 2 biggest markets alone. NSW going to ship close to or over 5mil for Jan-mar. I doubt more than 1.5mil NSW are on shelves WW by end of the quarter