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Forums - Sales Discussion - February NPD 2021: Switch~614k, PS5 ~300K, XBS <175k

PAOerfulone said:
Stuart23 said:

Interesting to see Persona 5 Strikers on 3rd place despite charting only for PS.

Well, there’s no Switch list in the OP.

It’s probably #2 or #3 on that list behind Bowser’s Fury and Bravely Default 2.

Mat Piscatella posted all the charts on Twitter earlier this morning. Persona 5 Strikers did not chart at all on the Switch top 10. So the PS userbase pretty much carried the sales for P5S. 



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Ryng said:

This is simply insane.

The Switch is unstoppable, improving year-on-year

SM3DW slaying and being #1 without digital sales included



PAOerfulone said:
Stuart23 said:

Interesting to see Persona 5 Strikers on 3rd place despite charting only for PS.

Well, there’s no Switch list in the OP.

It’s probably #2 or #3 on that list behind Bowser’s Fury and Bravely Default 2.

And Bravely Default II didn't make it in the Switch charts. Can't say it's unfortunate because apparently the 9th place, Just Dance 2021, did nice, so maybe BD did relatively ok for what it is. 



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

What an insane performance for the Switch! Beating any records done by PS3, Xbox 360, PS4, Xbox One and other Switch sales in February! 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

Ryng said:

Holy fuck! The power of Mario and Bowser! 



Pocky Lover Boy! 

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Hopefully we get some HW leaks this month. The Switch did a lot better than I thought. Based on the YoY January increase (~40%) and the previous three January-to-February increases for the system (+20-30%), I was thinking it'd be somewhere in the 465k to 500k range. A minimum of 620k is at least a 61% increase from January 2021 assuming ~385k is the actual figure for January. 61% is not unusual for a Jan.-to-Feb. increase in general, even it was larger than previous increases for the Switch specifically. Looking at other systems, though, the Jan.-Feb. increase in general is normally not consistent over time from platform to platform or with a single platform, and what we saw with the Switch in 2018 to 2020 is likely just a coincidence.

In any case, February is normally the biggest non-holiday month of the year in the U.S. in terms of weekly average sales. When other non-holiday months in a given year have been larger than February, it's usually been because of price cuts, hardware revisions, or major system-sellers released later in the year, though stock issues depressing February sales have sometimes been an issue (see the 360 in 2006 and the PS2 in 2001), and last year we had the COVID bump that knocked February way down the list for all systems (AC also helped the Switch last March, maybe even a bit in April). Unless the rumored Switch Pro is real and releases prior to November and/or we have some big surprise game released before the holidays, this may be the biggest non-holiday month this year for the Switch as well. While under normal circumstances, the Feb.-March drop is a bit more consistent, stimulus checks are likely going to start arriving in a lot of people's bank accounts within the next few days, which could lead to a much softer drop in weekly average sales for March, maybe even an increase.

It's possible that Q1 2020 could be very close to Q1 2021 for the Switch, possibly even besting it. January and February have seen big increases YoY, but March was the start of the COVID bump and was also AC:NH's release month. We never got an exact figure for last March (or did we?), but it was at least 1M, so we should expect a huge YoY drop for March sales, though still a very large number. The Switch sold over 1.6M in Q1 2020, so the Switch is going to have to sell as much as 600k in March just for Q1 2021 to match it, depending on what the actual February figure is, and that's entirely possible, maybe even likely, with the next round of stimulus happening (also, while Monster Hunter is not a clear system-seller in the U.S., limited edition consoles tend to be popular, so the MH Rise edition Switch could assist as well).

Assuming a 1.6-1.7M Q1, that would put the Switch slightly ahead YTD, but future months are going to be an obstacle. Assuming no further stimulus or other unusual factors, assuming a typical ~20-35% drop in Q2 from Q1, next quarter could end up being somewhere in the 1-1.35M range, significantly less than the 1.7M the Switch sold in Q2 2020. I'm still expecting the March-Oct. period as a whole to be down substantially from 2020, though even with such declines the Switch should easily clear 7 million units this year in the U.S. (I'm thinking probably around 7.5M), which would be the second-best fifth year ever for any system, well behind the DS's 2009 (11.2M) but a comfortable margin ahead of the 360's 2010 (6.76M), which is the current #2 best fifth year.

As for the PS5 & XBS, it's still too early to make any real determinations for this year considering the persistent stock issues.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

3D World put in that work, just reiterating just how great Wii U software was. These are the type of sales these games were supposed to be getting.



Feb sales biggest since 2011. If you might recall 2011 had sales like this:

360: 535,000
Wii: 455,000
DS: 454,000
PS3: 403,000
PSP: 78,000

So we can expect that Switch outmatches 360, and PS5/ XBS a bit below or matching Wii and PS3. 2011 had the advantage of 5 healthy systems contributing to $ sales.



Ryng said:

The fabled cliff is still nowhere in sight; 2020 might not even have been the peak.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Matt said that P5S is doing well on Switch.



While, the Playstation version is doing the best and the PC version is doing great as well. I wouldn't worry about the Switch version sales wise just because it failed to make the best selling Switch games of the month, since those are usually dominated by Nintendo and they are getting sales numbers that compete with the biggest games on those charts.