By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - February NPD 2021: Switch~614k, PS5 ~300K, XBS <175k

curl-6 said:

The fabled cliff is still nowhere in sight; 2020 might not even have been the peak.

I think 2020 was the peak. Things look great right now in relative terms because January & February 2020 were before AC and the pandemic. And in absolute terms, the Switch is doing very well. It's on track to be a contender for best fifth Q1 ever (the DS is the current #1 with 1662k units sold in Q2 2009). But the March-October period will provide a gigantic obstacle for the Switch's 2021.

The Switch sold over 1.8M units in just March & April alone last year, March because of AC (with a boost from the start of the "COVID bump") and April because of the first round of stimulus checks (with maybe some residual effect from AC). While there is a new round of stimulus checks starting to go out right now, larger than the January checks, there is nothing near the scale of Animal Crossing to help boost sales, so the likelihood of the Switch's March+April period this year being anywhere close to what it was last year is slim. Unless the Switch does at least 1.4M total for the March+April period, it's going to fall behind 2020 in YTD terms. Looking beyond April, the May-October 2020 period saw 3145k units sold, a weekly average of 121k units over that six-month span. Only the DS has managed to maintain a baseline well over 100k/week for a period of more than a year, and the Switch has been struggling to keep pace with the DS. Overall, the Switch will need to sell at least 4.5M units from March to October just to keep pace. Then it'll have to sell at least another 3.4M during the holidays. While March is probably going to be a another pretty big month, if April and May (typically the slowest months of the year) are seeing sales closer to 300k, that could be a sign of a slower year, at least relative to 2020.

I still stand by my prediction that demand for consoles will soften once we're on the other side of the pandemic, which at this rate could be sooner rather than later (and that also entails a high likelihood of the current round of stimulus being the last). If so, then without something, either internal or external, to keep demand high for most of the year, selling another 9M or more units this year is going to be extremely difficult. Not impossible, but highly unlikely. I think sales will drop this year, but not off a cliff. Something far more modest. My current prediction is 7.5M, only a 16.7% drop, though I'm willing to go as high as 8M.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Around the Network
curl-6 said:
Ryng said:

The fabled cliff is still nowhere in sight; 2020 might not even have been the peak.

There is a cliff, see how steep the increase is? Switch is jumping up a cliff, he just had the chart upside down.



Great Switch sales, giving the platform a good shot to match last year's Q1. Q2 will very likely result in a deficit for 2021, but what has to be kept in mind is that 2020's holiday quarter was rather underwhelming aside from October, so Switch can make notable gains on the backend of 2021. Nintendo won't have as weak of a holiday lineup as last year, and should all else fail, Nintendo always has the option to offer a big Black Friday deal for once.

In any case, 8m is the floor for 2021. Sales momentum remains great, the release schedule is bound to have more big titles than last year and the likelihood that Nintendo launches a Switch revision in the second half of the year is high.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

animegaming said:

Matt said that P5S is doing well on Switch.



While, the Playstation version is doing the best and the PC version is doing great as well. I wouldn't worry about the Switch version sales wise just because it failed to make the best selling Switch games of the month, since those are usually dominated by Nintendo and they are getting sales numbers that compete with the biggest games on those charts.

each Nintendo evergreen sku fight against multiplatform release( PC/consoles)+ digital, . The Ps4 version that appears on ps4 charts is easier. So the bar is high, for Nintendo. the game needs to be bonkers to appears in the Nintendo charts.

But Ps4 lead the way in Persona, normal. The Pc is the second because have Persona mainline games and the success of Persona Golden. 

Congrats. 

Last edited by Agente42 - on 14 March 2021

Shadow1980 said:

My current prediction is 7.5M, only a 16.7% drop, though I'm willing to go as high as 8M.

RolStoppable said:


In any case, 8m is the floor for 2021.

The duality of man.



Around the Network

Hold up, the Switch sold over 600k in February alone? That's bonkers




PS5 launch allinied sales are almost on par with PS4 with less than 1% difference.

PS4 after 4 months: 2.539.000
PS5 lifetime sales > 2.513.000

PS5 sales
November - 1.143.000 / 1.143.000
December - 815.000 / 1.958.000
January - 261.000 to 267.000 / 2.219.000 to 2.225.000

PS5 February sales are between 288k and 320k.



Ryng said:


PS5 launch allinied sales are almost on par with PS4 with less than 1% difference.

PS4 after 4 months: 2.539.000
PS5 lifetime sales > 2.513.000

PS5 sales
November - 1.143.000 / 1.143.000
December - 815.000 / 1.958.000
January - 261.000 to 267.000 / 2.219.000 to 2.225.000

PS5 February sales are between 288k and 320k.

And that's with limited supply. Demand for consoles in general is still very high. Makes me wonder how well both PS5 and XBS would be selling right now if they had sufficient supply to meet demand.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Shadow1980 said:
Ryng said:


PS5 launch allinied sales are almost on par with PS4 with less than 1% difference.

PS4 after 4 months: 2.539.000
PS5 lifetime sales > 2.513.000

PS5 sales
November - 1.143.000 / 1.143.000
December - 815.000 / 1.958.000
January - 261.000 to 267.000 / 2.219.000 to 2.225.000

PS5 February sales are between 288k and 320k.

And that's with limited supply. Demand for consoles in general is still very high. Makes me wonder how well both PS5 and XBS would be selling right now if they had sufficient supply to meet demand.

zero covid effect for sony and Microsoft?



Shadow1980 said:
curl-6 said:

The fabled cliff is still nowhere in sight; 2020 might not even have been the peak.

I think 2020 was the peak.

Well you do know what happened to people predicting peaks for the Switch, right ?



"Quagmire, are you the type of guy who takes 'no' for an answer ?"
"My lawyer doesn't allow me to answer that question"

PSN ID: skmblake | Feel free to add me