Gotta keep in mind that Switch's numbers through out May - August were supply constrained last year, sounds like they scaled production for this year and the production targets for the FY are likely to be higher than 30 million that are likely to be produced until the end of March. Despite the lack of a game with the caliber of New Horizon - we have Bowser's Fury, Monster Hunter Rise, Pokemon Snap, Mario Golf, Rune Factory 5, Bravely Default 2, Olive Town, Skyward Sword HD, Miitopia, SMT V, Monster Hunter Stories 2, Samurai Warriors 5, Fall Guys, Apex Legends launching World Wide. Top those off with Japanese specific games like Baseball Spirits, Shin Kun or indies like Silksong and up until July there is enough titles to surpass the impact of New Horizon.
This is just looking at games likely to release before August, there is surely a few titles yet to be revealed for Obon period in Japan - July/August. So New Horizon effect will be negated by the following months with ease.
The big question mark remains September to December - Pro, Pokemon Remakes, a major fall title aligned with the Pro launch(Breath of the Wild 2), Third Party Pro exclusives - last year because of the demand in September & October - Nintendo had an average result in November. This year if we have two major Nintendo/Pokemon games in the fall, coupled with the Pro launch.. well we should be seeing the Switch's peak in terms of both SW & HW performance not just in NA but the World.