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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why are Nintendo Switch sales peaking much later than other Nintendo consoles?

Norion said:
SKMBlake said:

Yeah but how come this specific situation was only profitable for the Switch and not the other 2 consoles ? How come the Switch sold almost 30 million thanks to pandemic but the PS4 and Xbox sales were 40% down ? Why people would've only spend money for buying a Switch ?

Both ran out of stock and both Sony and Microsoft felt it was more important to focus on manufacturing the new consoles than keeping up with the new increased demand for the old ones. Also the Switch was in the peak of its life while the other two were near the end and declining so the former had a much bigger boost potential since a lot of people who have bought a Switch during the pandemic will have already had a PS4 or Xbox One and a lot of people who had none of them probably picked the Switch over the other two since it was more appealing to them, for example a lot of the women who bought a Switch.

Also, a greater share of Switch units are sold to/for kids.  With everyone stuck at home, parents are happy to buy the kids a Switch to give them something to do that (this is important) doesn't require a TV.  No kids fighting over the XB/PS and TV if they each have a Switch.  No parents having to listen to kids gaminh while they're working from home if they can tell the kid to go play Switch in his room.  

Add this to the consoles lifecycles, and Switch was just in a much better position to gain market share during the pandemic.  



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Nintendo consolidating their output to one platform certainly helped. Also a great concept executed well!



Shadow1980 said:
Norion said:

Both ran out of stock and both Sony and Microsoft felt it was more important to focus on manufacturing the new consoles than keeping up with the new increased demand for the old ones. Also the Switch was in the peak of its life while the other two were near the end and declining so the former had a much bigger boost potential since a lot of people who have bought a Switch during the pandemic will have already had a PS4 or Xbox One and a lot of people who had none of them probably picked the Switch over the other two since it was more appealing to them, for example a lot of the women who bought a Switch.

Pretty much this. It was the replacement year for the PS4 & XBO. There was only so much stock to go around. For example, Sony only shipped 6.2M units during the 2020 calendar year, with maybe a third of those going to North America. Combined with remaining stock from 2019, there was no way it could have continued selling what it was doing in the spring and summer for the whole year. Even without the pandemic, it still would have probably sold about the same as it did for 2020 as a whole (somewhere in the 2.1-2.3M range; we're still missing Nov.+Dec. NPD sales for last-gen). If Sony had doubled their PS4 output, they might have been able to sell upwards of 3.5M or more, but there was no point in doing so with the PS5 on the horizon.

But the data is clear. There was significantly increased demand for all systems during the pandemic. Prior to when they depleted their stock, the PS4 & XBO were performing far better than they had any right to be doing, even after the initial spike in March-April.

In the six months from March to August of last year, the PS4 alone sold 1.43M, not too far short of the 1.5M the 360 & PS3 sold combined in the same period in 2013. While the PS4 was down 9.5% overall YoY for the May-Sept. period, that's an incredibly small drop for a replacement year, far less than the YoY drops experienced by the 360 (-42.2%) and PS3 (-30%) in the same period in 2013, or by the PS2 (-19.1%) in the same period in 2007. But by October the PS4 had burned through most of its stock, and sales dropped off significantly (and were already slowing down in September). Still, it had sold 1.85M through the first three quarters of 2020, the second-best Q1-Q3 performance in a replacement year ever in the U.S., behind only the PS2, and marginally up from the same period in 2019.

The XBO meanwhile burned through its stock quicker, but was still posting far better than expected sales prior to that. In addition to the big gains in the March-May period, its sales in June, while down YoY, still had a smaller drop-off than the 360 & PS3 did in June 2013. But stock was depleted by July, and while it did get some restocks, it wasn't enough to put it where it was in the spring.

Overall, though, the PS4 & XBO had an outstanding first half of the year, and their performance is clearly due to the effects of the pandemic. To put it all in pictures:

Note that the PS3 and (to a lesser extent) the 360 got one last bump in 2013 before the PS4 & XBO were released thanks to GTA5 in September, plus the 360 got some good holiday bundles in October, which is why their sales were a bit better in September & October than in the five months prior.

You still haven't watched my youtube video about NPD you fraud! >:(



Shadow1980 said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Yes, many thought the Switch would be flat or even down. They did the same as you did in posts before: look back how the Nintendo consoles peaked early and extrapolated from there.

What they didn't look at were the sales during the first 2 months of 2020, during which the Switch was outselling 2019 by a comfortable margin already, leading by over 250k after only 7 weeks. Of course, nobody expected AC:NH to become such a juggernaut, but the signs that the sales would be up in 2020 without Covid are all there already before the shit hit the fan.

Of course Covid helped; I mean, many who suddenly lost their job or had much more time at hand needed something to keep occupied (that's mainly why it's resistant to crisis), but pinning most of the rise on Covid is just wrong. Switch would have sold 24M+ even without the pandemic the way the things were going, and would probably have had a bigger holiday title without the virus delaying so much in terms of game development.

The Switch was down in Jan. & Feb. in the U.S., and perhaps also in Europe. It was only clearly up in Japan, likely due to the residual effects of the Lite (see my post above).

AC was going to be a system-seller, but nearly all of its effects would have been felt in March. Aside from maybe the Wii U improving in 2015 in the months following Splatoon's release, there's no good evidence that a single game can cause an increase in baseline sales lasting for months on end, and certainly nothing like a 100% increase.

Nothing ever experiences growth like what we saw without some kind of major stimulative factor. Only price cuts and new models have ever been able to do what we saw. Since there was no price cut and the Lite wasn't enough to explain the growth, and there's no way AC could have done that by itself, the pandemic had to be the cause of the overwhelming amount of the growth we've seen. Data for the PS4 & XBO corroborate the impact the pandemic had on hardware sales.

The data suggests that, absent the pandemic, the Switch would have been at best slightly up in 2021. It wouldn't have sold anywhere close to what it did in 2020 had COVID never been a thing.

Again, you just look at US and deduce that all the rest of the world follows the same pattern.

Switch was down in the US due to not having the tail end of the SMP/PLG/Smash  triplet like 2019 had, and the fact that NSMBUD in 2019 was clearly a bigger January title from Nintendo than Tokio Mirage Sessions in 2020, which boosted January and February sales in the US in 2019. Outside of the US though, these game releases that pushed 2019 were not big enough to keep up with the increased baseline that 2020 already had before Covid and before Animal Crossing. As a result you're fooling yourself with your own data by being too selective and just looking at a snippet, looing the big picture in the process.

Also, Nintendo hold back quite some consoles for the AC:NH launch, considering it resulted in 1M sales within a month in NA alone, which combined with the shutdown of production facilities in China due to covid resulted in short supply throughout mid-to-late February. Considering how small the drop YoY was, had those factories not been affected, Switch would certainly have been up in February 2020 compared to 2019.



I am sure that it has been covered, but the Switch is doing disproportionately well mainly due to the general increased atmosphere of fear that exists amongst the public over the past year. Nobody wants to play a zombie game in 2021 when you just need to look outside your door to see something that appears to be fairly similar. That said, there is something about Nintendo games like Animal Crossing, Mario, Pokemon that is innocent and provides people with an escape from the depressing state of current affairs. Nintendo is benefiting from the public looking for an escape from reality, as opposed to seeking a higher definition recreation of it. It is no different than if you were to go back and watch the movies made during WWII. Movies like "Going My Way" were very innocent and lighthearted films that took people as far away as possible from the war. 10 years later, however, war recreation films became extremely popular because it was no longer the reality that people faced.



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haxxiy said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah, no, the pandemic is just one  contributing factor of many, not at all solely responsible.

Yeah no, the pandemic is the sole contributing factor, others were not responsible at all.

See how your line of argumentation works?

I wonder how smart you felt when typing your reply..

There's no call to be needlessly rude.

To write off Switch's later peak as purely due to covid requires one to ignore a host of other factors from the cultural phenomenon of Animal Crossing New Horizons and the way it opened up the system to new demographics, to the fact it was trending upwards year by year already, to its ability to sell multiple units to single households, to word of mouth increasing with each Switch system making in out into the wild, to its monopoly on the handheld and hybrid market niches, to the fact Nintendo's portable systems typically peak later than their dedicated consoles, etc. 

Last edited by curl-6 - on 22 February 2021

Shadow1980 said:
Norion said:

Both ran out of stock and both Sony and Microsoft felt it was more important to focus on manufacturing the new consoles than keeping up with the new increased demand for the old ones. Also the Switch was in the peak of its life while the other two were near the end and declining so the former had a much bigger boost potential since a lot of people who have bought a Switch during the pandemic will have already had a PS4 or Xbox One and a lot of people who had none of them probably picked the Switch over the other two since it was more appealing to them, for example a lot of the women who bought a Switch.

Pretty much this. It was the replacement year for the PS4 & XBO. There was only so much stock to go around. For example, Sony only shipped 6.2M units during the 2020 calendar year, with maybe a third of those going to North America. Combined with remaining stock from 2019, there was no way it could have continued selling what it was doing in the spring and summer for the whole year. Even without the pandemic, it still would have probably sold about the same as it did for 2020 as a whole (somewhere in the 2.1-2.3M range; we're still missing Nov.+Dec. NPD sales for last-gen). If Sony had doubled their PS4 output, they might have been able to sell upwards of 3.5M or more, but there was no point in doing so with the PS5 on the horizon.

As usual good post and analysis. I have said that all that covid did for the PS4 and Xbox One was move 2020 sales around instead of giving them a real boost since both sold more in the March-May period than the October-December period I think which is insane and likely unprecedented. With Sony and Microsoft sacrificing manufacturing of the old systems to help the new ones covid probably actually has decreased sales for the last gen systems in the long term so aside from it messing up their plans Nintendo got very lucky with the timing of this pandemic.

VAMatt said:
Norion said:

Both ran out of stock and both Sony and Microsoft felt it was more important to focus on manufacturing the new consoles than keeping up with the new increased demand for the old ones. Also the Switch was in the peak of its life while the other two were near the end and declining so the former had a much bigger boost potential since a lot of people who have bought a Switch during the pandemic will have already had a PS4 or Xbox One and a lot of people who had none of them probably picked the Switch over the other two since it was more appealing to them, for example a lot of the women who bought a Switch.

Also, a greater share of Switch units are sold to/for kids.  With everyone stuck at home, parents are happy to buy the kids a Switch to give them something to do that (this is important) doesn't require a TV.  No kids fighting over the XB/PS and TV if they each have a Switch.  No parents having to listen to kids gaminh while they're working from home if they can tell the kid to go play Switch in his room.  

Add this to the consoles lifecycles, and Switch was just in a much better position to gain market share during the pandemic.  

That's another good point. The Wii U had that sort of thing but the connection range wasn't that big so the Switch took that advantage and made it better and got rid of the massive disadvantages that prevented the Wii U from being successful.



Leynos said:

Wii also only had one thing going for it. A novelty. Novelties wear off. The switch has a practical use for its selling point. It's convenient having the ability to be both docked and handheld. As HDTVs became more common and Smartphones the less sense Wii made. Switch released just before the cloud gaming boom and it's more practical than cloud gaming IMO. I'm not saying this is the sole factor. Just an additional one to what has already been mentioned.

So were Nintendo's other home consoles with shorter generations and less successful than the Wii worse novelties?



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

Jumpin said:
Leynos said:

Wii also only had one thing going for it. A novelty. Novelties wear off. The switch has a practical use for its selling point. It's convenient having the ability to be both docked and handheld. As HDTVs became more common and Smartphones the less sense Wii made. Switch released just before the cloud gaming boom and it's more practical than cloud gaming IMO. I'm not saying this is the sole factor. Just an additional one to what has already been mentioned.

So were Nintendo's other home consoles with shorter generations and less successful than the Wii worse novelties?

Different situations entirely.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Nothing really complicated Switch is a different type of platform than any before it that's all, the hybrid form factor was executed well and as a result unites two userbase types and consolidates all support for the platform while retaining the perks of both home and portable experience. Basically it's a good product catering to two parallel markets.