Why would Switch act as a past Nintendo consoles when its concept and the conditions it was released are unique compared the past?
It was proved time and time again that solely basing your analysis on past trends doesn't work well for the Switch.
People are overlooking how Switch is the first truly successful everywhere Nintendo console predisposed for digital gaming in the age of social media.
This helps the word of mouth and to maximize the sales potential of software and hardware because it doesn't have past limitations (games don't need to fight for shelf space and could always be purchased at a distance of a click even years after launch, temporary discounts and media activity could prolong the visibility of a game).
Not only that but the influx of a huge quantity of games, many of which from smaller studios, released through eshop increased the chance of new hits on the platform even at a later stage meanwhile in the past it was less likely that to happen (think to the critic darling Hades and the hugely popular Among Us for a couple of recent examples).
Covid boosted gaming in general, including Switch, through out 2020 but Switch was going to be up year over year regardless because the whole ecosystem is healthy (is getting stronger instead of declining) and Animal Crossing New Horizon would have been a killer app, even if it would have sold a bit less (we are talking about a game that in its first 12 months and few days is going to sell around 35 million units on a single platform).
Animal Crossing was a 10M+ franchise before New Horizon but its sales outside Japan were always under its real potential shown looking at the sales in Japan.
Switch strong momentum and unique conditions (almost every Nintendo franchise got its best selling game on Switch) meant that Animal Crossing was ready to have its break out moment in the west regardless of Covid (which obviously amplified its reach).