| Shadow1980 said: Two reasons: 1) It probably took some time to gain more traction instead of having an initial rush because it was a new concept and Nintendo was just coming off of the Wii U. |
What? We were always joking about the double helix pattern in the PS4/Switch launch aligned sales comparison articles. Because they started at different times of the year they gained the lead at different times, but that they kept repeating that was because for the initial years Switch and PS4 basically sold on the same curve. Do you really think PS4 needed time to gain more traction? Because it was a new concept and people were burned coming off the PS3? I think both consoles, Switch and PS4 started off equally strong (and PS5 seems to follow that sales curve again).
| Shadow1980 said: 2) This guy right here:
Had there been no pandemic, Switch sales were likely going to be down or at best roughly flat in 2020. Hardly anybody was expecting any appreciable year-over-year gains, many if not most were expecting it to be down (at least in the U.S.), and nobody expected it to do as well as it did. Demand for consoles increased due to the pandemic and still remains elevated because of the general increase in spending on at-home entertainment, but once enough people are vaccinated and the numbers of cases are sufficiently down to where everything can safely reopen, I expect demand for the Switch to decline as pent-up demand for things like movie theaters and restaurants results in a spending spree on away-from-home events and entertainment. |
I don't think that many were expecting it to be down, most people actually thought it could peak in 2020. Really, take a look:
This was mid 2019, and the majority was betting on 2020, the amount of VG$ is bigger than any other option combined. So I don't know how you can think that most were expecting it to be down (yes, you restricted it in parantheses to the US, which makes no sense because how would people expect a 2020 peak year without the US, seeing how europe is Nintendos weak spot and Japan was very fast to adopt the Switch and probably is first to peak).
Also we can compare the effect of the pandemic between systems, and see that it does about 10%-15%. So that is not nothing and it did slow down the decline of PS4 and Xbox One, but to explain Switch's more than 40% growth you need much more than the pandemic. It is more like the pandemic slightly supported an already existing momentum.
I also don't see your prediction of sales suddenly collapsing because people can go back to museums and bars coming true. It seems not unthinkable, that 2021 is actually Switch's peak year (and nearly everyone will lose the above-linked bet). You need to look at the games, not extrinsic factors to see the momentum. Like Salnax did.
