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Forums - Sales Discussion - Why are Nintendo Switch sales peaking much later than other Nintendo consoles?

haxxiy said:

1. The pandemic
2. The pandemic
3. The pandemic

It doesn't take a lot of effort to look precisely at which month of 2020 sales and internet trends of the Switch started to skyrocket.

If predecessor interest was a factor then the Wii and the DS would have their sales pattern swapped around.

Yeah, no, the pandemic is just one  contributing factor of many, not at all solely responsible.



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curl-6 said:

Let's take the Wii, since people like to still insist the Switch will follow a similar path despite being totally different and trending nothing like it.

By this point in Wii's lifespan it had already had its price cut to $200 and pretty much all its big games were behind it. Switch by contrast still costs $300 for the base model, having yet to see a price cut, and still has megatons like BOTW2, Splatoon 3, Monster Hunter Rise, and likely many other big games we don't even know about yet still to come.

I keep thinking something alone the lines of "oh, but the the Wii was still getting games like Mario Galaxy 2 and Skyward Sword at this point!" ... then I remember that the Switch is actually approaching it's fifth year (March 2021 - March 2022) not it's fourth. Gosh, it makes me feel both old and it also makes the Switch feel weirdly young given how immature it's software lineup still feels. It just highlights all the more how weird it must have been as a Wii owner having the Wii for only about 4 years, only to stop receiving a plethora of games for it. 

Yea ... it actually is kind of weird how, for better or worse, Switch's library doesn't even feel half done yet.  



AngryLittleAlchemist said:
curl-6 said:

Let's take the Wii, since people like to still insist the Switch will follow a similar path despite being totally different and trending nothing like it.

By this point in Wii's lifespan it had already had its price cut to $200 and pretty much all its big games were behind it. Switch by contrast still costs $300 for the base model, having yet to see a price cut, and still has megatons like BOTW2, Splatoon 3, Monster Hunter Rise, and likely many other big games we don't even know about yet still to come.

I keep thinking something alone the lines of "oh, but the the Wii was still getting games like Mario Galaxy 2 and Skyward Sword at this point!" ... then I remember that the Switch is actually approaching it's fifth year (March 2021 - March 2022) not it's fourth. Gosh, it makes me feel both old and it also makes the Switch feel weirdly young given how immature it's software lineup still feels. It just highlights all the more how weird it must have been as a Wii owner having the Wii for only about 4 years, only to stop receiving a plethora of games for it. 

Yea ... it actually is kind of weird how, for better or worse, Switch's library doesn't even feel half done yet.  

Yeah Switch definitely feels younger than is it, I think because there are still so many major games still ahead of it.

And yes, as a Wii owner, it really sucked how support dried up in its fifth year. Thank fuck there were still a few final gems like Xenoblade and The Last Story to keep me going. All the same, it left a bitter taste, and I'm glad Switch doesn't look to be headed for the same fate.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 21 February 2021

Wii also only had one thing going for it. A novelty. Novelties wear off. The switch has a practical use for its selling point. It's convenient having the ability to be both docked and handheld. As HDTVs became more common and Smartphones the less sense Wii made. Switch released just before the cloud gaming boom and it's more practical than cloud gaming IMO. I'm not saying this is the sole factor. Just an additional one to what has already been mentioned.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

curl-6 said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I keep thinking something alone the lines of "oh, but the the Wii was still getting games like Mario Galaxy 2 and Skyward Sword at this point!" ... then I remember that the Switch is actually approaching it's fifth year (March 2021 - March 2022) not it's fourth. Gosh, it makes me feel both old and it also makes the Switch feel weirdly young given how immature it's software lineup still feels. It just highlights all the more how weird it must have been as a Wii owner having the Wii for only about 4 years, only to stop receiving a plethora of games for it. 

Yea ... it actually is kind of weird how, for better or worse, Switch's library doesn't even feel half done yet.  

Yeah Switch definitely feels younger than is it, I think because there are still so many major games still ahead of it.

And yes, as a Wii owner, it really sucked how support dried up in its fifth year. Thank fuck there were still a few final gems like Xenoblade and The Last Story to keep me going. All the same, it left a bitter taste, and I'm glad Switch doesn't look to be headed for the same fate.

It's especially sad because, just looking at 2010 as someone who was too young at the time to play a shit ton of games (and was pretty much just using the Wii as a party machine), it seems surprisingly packed. Kirby, the revival of Donkey Kong Country with Returns, No More Heroes 2, Mario Galaxy 2, the Monster Hunter Tri localization in the west, as well as Red Steel 2 and Sonic Colors. It is the year where you kind of see the sheen wear off perhaps (Metroid Other M, Epic Mickey, Wii Party from what I remember being received as one of the worst Wii-entry games while still selling well), and maybe it showed the Wii wasn't sustainable I don't know. But it seems like a pretty good year for output honestly. 



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AngryLittleAlchemist said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah Switch definitely feels younger than is it, I think because there are still so many major games still ahead of it.

And yes, as a Wii owner, it really sucked how support dried up in its fifth year. Thank fuck there were still a few final gems like Xenoblade and The Last Story to keep me going. All the same, it left a bitter taste, and I'm glad Switch doesn't look to be headed for the same fate.

It's especially sad because, just looking at 2010 as someone who was too young at the time to play a shit ton of games (and was pretty much just using the Wii as a party machine), it seems surprisingly packed. Kirby, the revival of Donkey Kong Country with Returns, No More Heroes 2, Mario Galaxy 2, the Monster Hunter Tri localization in the west, as well as Red Steel 2 and Sonic Colors. It is the year where you kind of see the sheen wear off perhaps (Metroid Other M, Epic Mickey, Wii Party from what I remember being received as one of the worst Wii-entry games while still selling well), and maybe it showed the Wii wasn't sustainable I don't know. But it seems like a pretty good year for output honestly. 

Oh yeah 2010 was fantastic, I bought like 12 Wii games from that year alone. It was 2011 when things dried up overnight.



01. The concept of the console is something never seen before (not like THIS), because of that it took some years for the hybrid concept to explode.
02. Nintendo is focusing on one system instead of 2 this time
03. COVID



Why would Switch act as a past Nintendo consoles when its concept and the conditions it was released are unique compared the past?
It was proved time and time again that solely basing your analysis on past trends doesn't work well for the Switch.

People are overlooking how Switch is the first truly successful everywhere Nintendo console predisposed for digital gaming in the age of social media.
This helps the word of mouth and to maximize the sales potential of software and hardware because it doesn't have past limitations (games don't need to fight for shelf space and could always be purchased at a distance of a click even years after launch, temporary discounts and media activity could prolong the visibility of a game).
Not only that but the influx of a huge quantity of games, many of which from smaller studios, released through eshop increased the chance of new hits on the platform even at a later stage meanwhile in the past it was less likely that to happen (think to the critic darling Hades and the hugely popular Among Us for a couple of recent examples).

Covid boosted gaming in general, including Switch, through out 2020 but Switch was going to be up year over year regardless because the whole ecosystem is healthy (is getting stronger instead of declining) and Animal Crossing New Horizon would have been a killer app, even if it would have sold a bit less (we are talking about a game that in its first 12 months and few days is going to sell around 35 million units on a single platform).
Animal Crossing was a 10M+ franchise before New Horizon but its sales outside Japan were always under its real potential shown looking at the sales in Japan.
Switch strong momentum and unique conditions (almost every Nintendo franchise got its best selling game on Switch) meant that Animal Crossing was ready to have its break out moment in the west regardless of Covid (which obviously amplified its reach).

Last edited by Endymion - on 22 February 2021

Salnax said:

I think the ongoing Software Lineup has a lot to do with this.

The following table includes games that have either sold 5+ million copies and/or were among the Top 10 best-selling games on their respective platforms (becaause we need to show some Wii U games). I'm also bolding best-sellers for each system.

DSWii3DSWii USwitch
Year 1

Big Brain Academy

Brain Age

Mario Kart DS

Nintendogs

Super Mario 64 DS

Legend of Zelda: TP

LEGO Star Wars: Complete Saga

Mario Party 8

Super Mario Galaxy

Wii Play

Wii Sports

Legend of Zelda: OoT 3D

Mario Kart 7

Super Mario 3D Land

Legend of Zelda: WW HD

New Super Luigi U

New Super Mario Bros U

Nintendo Land

Legend of Zelda: BotW

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

Splatoon 2

Super Mario Odyssey

Year 2

Animal Crossing: Wild World

Brain Age 2

Cooking Mama

New Super Mario Bros

Pokemon Diamond/Pearl

Link's Crossbow Training

Mario Kart Wii

Super Smash Bros Brawl

Wii Fit

Animal Crossing: New Leaf

New Super Mario Bros 2

Mario Kart 8

Super Mario 3D World

Super Smash Bros Wii U

New Super Mario Bros U DX

Pokemon: Let's Go

Super Mario Party

Super Smash Bros Ultimate

Year 3

Mario & Sonic 2008

Mario Party DS

Pokemon Platinum

New Super Mario Bros Wii

Wii Fit Plus

Wii Sports Resort

Luigi's Mansion 2

Pokemon X/Y

Tomodachi Life

Mario Party 10

Splatoon

Super Mario Maker

Luigi's Mansion 3

Pokemon SS

Ring Fit Adventure

Super Mario Maker 2

Year 4

Dragon Quest IX

Pokemon HGSS

Donkey Kong Country Returns

Just Dance 2

Super Mario Galaxy 2

Wii Party

Pokemon ORAS

Super Smash Bros 3DS

Animal Crossing: NH

Super Mario 3D All-Stars

Hyrule Warriors: AoC (Tentative)

Year 1 is "the year following launch day" and so on, which I chose because otherwise the 3DS and Switch with their Q1 launches would look strange next to the other systems and their Q4 launches.

Note that the DS peaked circa years 3/4, the Wii circa Year 2/3, the 3DS year 2, and the Wii U in Year 2. The Switch seems to have peaked in Year 4. Also note that some games were delayed in some regions.

A few things I notice from this

  • The DS's peaking in its third and fourth years makes sense when you realize that many of the games listed in Year 2 were released later than that in the West, including Pokemon DP and Brain Age 2.
  • The Wii peaked in the years where three of its five big games came out, with only the launch window titles of Wii Sports and Wii Play not coming out in this timespan.
  • The 3DS peaked in 2012, by the end of which all its biggest titles besides Pokemon were out.
  • The Wii U peaked the year it got its three big non-bundled games.
  • The Switch has both its best-selling titles and its 5+ million sellers in general fairly evenly spread across its entire life so far. The main exceptions are the DS, which doesn't introduce any of its top sellers after Year 2, and the 3DS, which relies on Pokemon games for Years 3, 4, and 6, likely not attracting new audiences.

This basically. I want to add, that many of these big games introduce new audiences. For instance Animal Crossing had many players, that hadn't a Switch before. So I agree, that Pokemon on the 3DS didn't bring in much *new* players after the first one.

I think there is a strong possibility that even 2020 wasn't the peak though. The year starts strong, MonHun Rise shapes up to become a giant and we have still some stuff open like a new Wii Sports like title. 2022 Nintendo taps into an established userbase with Splatoon 3, but 2021 still looks like it could go very well.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year] [+], [1], [2], [3], [4]

For me the console design is just brilliant. We have two units in the house (one for the kids), with a dock on two different TVs. I love the flexibility of being able to move to another room, depending on what the wife/kids want to do. As a result I am playing and buying far more Switch games compared to ps4. Brilliant design.  It just gets used a lot.  

Edit

I think Nintendo is also doing an excellent job of couch coop, something Sony/MS have been doing a poor job of.  Mario Odyssey, Mario 3D World, Luigi's Mansion, Pikmin 3, Animal Crossing, Smash, Kart, Party, etc.  Multiplayer is also driving up my use of the Switch.  Playing family games on the weekend via couch coop is something I can't really get elsewhere.  Not with the variety of offerings the Switch has.

Last edited by Chrkeller - on 22 February 2021