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Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu Sales: Week 2, 2021 (Jan 04 - Jan 10)

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Also for those asking about if NSW will surpass 3ds 25mil or how far it will go????


3DS year 5+6 combined vs NSW year 5 (pls note that NSW is currently 227k behind aligned but that will be diminished in about 5-7weeks

Comparison Time!!!

W## - 3DSY5 - 3DSY6 - Combo - NSW21

W01: 200.1k - 122.9k - 323.0k - [312.1k]
W02: 70.1k — 51.2k — 121.3k - [167.6k]
W03: 50.4k — 31.4k — 81.8k
W04: 36.2k — 30.0k — 66.2k
W05: 33.0k — 24.9k — 57.9k
W06: 34.6k — 19.8k — 54.4K
W07: 53.3k — 21.1k — 74.4K
W08: 31.2k — 18.6k — 59.8k
W09: 29.9k — 20.0k — 49.9k
W10: 28.4k — 21.3k — 49.7k
W11: 26.5k — 20.5k — 47.0k
W12: 22.8k — 20.4k — 43.2k
W13: 25.7k — 25.3k — 51.0k


So far

444.3k: 3DS Y5+6
479.7k: NSW Y5



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Switch has had a good start into the 2021 tracking period, but it needs to be remembered that 2020 was a leap year, so the same two weeks this year include two more good days of the holiday season.

Switch should be able to grow its lead over the course of the next nine weeks, especially because of last year's shortages-affected week 8 to 11 which averaged ~50k per week. Following that, the year over year lead will be wiped out by Animal Crossing and we'll have to see how far behind 2021 falls. I very much doubt that Monster Hunter Rise can match up to Animal Crossing in terms of hardware boost. Worth noting is that AC's boost was a double-edged sword, so the boosted Switch demand resulted in shortages that led to a few bad weeks in spring which will allow 2021 to gain back some ground after the first three mega weeks of AC.

Week2020 Weekly2020 Cumulative2021 Weekly2021 CumulativeDifference WeeklyDifference Cumulative
1284.827284.827312.121312.12127.29427.294
2116.301401.128167.596479.71751.29578.589
396.458497.586
467.987565.573
575.922641.495
6100.961741.456
780.312821.948
841.490863.258
953.098916.356
1050.585967.941
1157.2741.025.215
12392.5761.417.791
13282.5611.700.352
14154.6401.854.992
1525.3131.880.305
1627.8741.908.179
17107.1042.015.284
1878.7312.094.015
1978.7312.172.746
2038.3802.211.126
2152.5572.263.683
22107.5932.371.276
2368.1922.439.468
2455.1872.494.655
2578.4282.573.083
2693.7992.666.882
2752.2502.719.132
2896.8792.816.011
29113.1972.929.208
30125.2313.054.439
3186.6053.141.044
32173.3383.314.382
33148.6993.463.081
3470.1293.533.210
3578.7733.611.983
3677.6113.689.594
3783.9203.773.514
38110.0293.883.543
3970.5423.954.085
4091.0934.045.178
41108.5754.153.753
4295.8524.249.605
4364.7684.314.373
4486.9854.401.358
45139.2004.540.558
46116.2674.656.825
47179.1434.835.968
48145.1784.981.146
49204.6225.185.768
50229.6985.415.466
51263.3045.678.770
52278.1735.956.943


Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

Bonus, I’m not taking seriously unless it does well but here y’all goooo

If NSW beats this one then it’s game over

NSW Year 5 vs 3DS year 5+6+7 o.O

W## - 3DSY5 - 3DSY6 - 3DSY6 —Combine—NSWY5

W01: 200.1k - 122.9k - 119.9k ———[443k] vs 312k

W02: 70.1k — 51.2k — 121.4k ——— [243k] vs 167k

W03: 50.4k — 31.4k — 46.4k————[128k]

W04: 36.2k — 30.0k — 34.3k———[100k]

W05: 33.0k — 24.9k — 33.9k—[92k]

W06: 34.6k — 19.8k — 31.3k—[86k]

W07: 53.3k — 21.1k — 31.6k—[106k]

W08: 31.2k — 18.6k — 27.4k—[77k]

W09: 29.9k — 20.0k — 24.7k—[75k]

W10: 28.4k — 21.3k — 27.1k—[77k]

W11: 26.5k — 20.5k — 24.5k—[72k]

W12: 22.8k — 20.4k — 56.5k—[100k]

W13: 25.7k — 25.3k — 51.3k—[102k]


Total 3DS: 686k vs. NSW 479k (207k difference)



I think Switch has a good chance to beat 2020. Momentum is up, there will be no AC but still a lot of big software and more packed. We should see more special edition Switch like the Mario one. I'm sure that if sales start to go down anyway they can just drop a revision or a price cut and voila.



tbone51 said:

My prediction of 2021>2020 off to a good start. Of course I’m lowballing more Q1, but all according to plan!!!

W#: Guess — Sold — Difference

W1: 250k —— 312k — +62k
W2: 120k —— 168k — +48k
W3: 85k
W4: 75k
w5: 70k
w6: 75k
w7: 100k (SM3DW)
w8: 75k (BD2)
w9: 65k (SoS)
w10: 55k
w11: 45k
w12: 80k
w13: 180k (MHR)

Tot: 1275k

I think your prediction of 2021 > 2020 will not have too much difficulty for Q1.  It's Q2 where things get interesting.  But then again Q2 had a lot of weeks with shortages, so maybe 2021 > 2020 for Q2.  Either way, Q2 should be a much closer comparison.



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I will not be surprised if 2021 Switch in the first 3 months (Jan,Feb,March) is up YOY since those months in 2020 were pretty average before the Pandemic and Animal Crossing hit. The 2021 sales numbers after March will definitely determine whether 2021 will be its peak or whether Switch sales will begin declining.



Mar1217 said:

Good way to continue this year ! It'll cetainly need the early lead for when we arrive in March ...

March has MonHun, so I still believe Switch can keep up with last year. But later the year this will start to look differently.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020

10 years greatest game event!

bets: [peak year], [1], [2], [3], [4]

Mnementh said:
Mar1217 said:

Good way to continue this year ! It'll cetainly need the early lead for when we arrive in March ...

March has MonHun, so I still believe Switch can keep up with last year. But later the year this will start to look differently.

I haven't been keeping an eye on sales long enough to know how much of impact MonHun has on sales, how large is the spike and how long is it sustained are really my only question.

Edit:I just looked at monster hunter 4's release on the 3DS, quite a difference, and it lasted a while.

Last edited by badskywalker - on 14 January 2021

Mnementh said:
Mar1217 said:

Good way to continue this year ! It'll cetainly need the early lead for when we arrive in March ...

March has MonHun, so I still believe Switch can keep up with last year. But later the year this will start to look differently.

If NSW 2021 keeps up with NSW 2020 this quarter that would be insane. I’m still seeing 1300k-1500k. Hopefully it does get close. ACNH did 680k hardware in 2 weeks



Mnementh said:
Mar1217 said:

Good way to continue this year ! It'll cetainly need the early lead for when we arrive in March ...

March has MonHun, so I still believe Switch can keep up with last year. But later the year this will start to look differently.

March has Monster Hunter and April gets the new Pokémon Snap.