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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2021?

 

Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2021?

Less than 8 million 60 6.86%
 
8.0 - 9.9 million 45 5.14%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 88 10.06%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 114 13.03%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 202 23.09%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 122 13.94%
 
18.0 - 19.9 million 105 12.00%
 
20.0 - 21.9 million 61 6.97%
 
22.0 - 24.0 million 18 2.06%
 
More than 24 million 60 6.86%
 
Total:875

It had a record launch followed by serious shortages. They are sacrificing PS4 production and marketing and already sacrificed its Xmas 2020 to push its successor as fast as possible, moreover unofficial rumours say Sony is planning to produce 16-18M in 2021, anyhow for a first full year 18M would be really huge, actually the biggest first full calendar year ever for any console by quite a large margin, so I'd stay a little under that max unofficial prediction.
So, considering the little we can already know, I'd say 16-17.4M. Very optimistic, but considering Sony sacrificed the last possible big year of its current cash cow to make it happen, we can expect it to make all the efforts possible to achieve it.



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TruckOSaurus said:
thetonestarr said:

So far, if I recall correctly, it's been doing worse than PS4, particularly in Japan. It's hit an all-out slump in Japan, and Japanese sales have always been very important with Playstations.

I'm going with less than PS4. 10 to 12.

Japan is much worse yes but it's been outpacing the PS4 in NA and Europe. Worldwide, it's ahead on PS4.

Stolen from @dmillos in the HW thread : 

Yeah I know. But with Nintendo and Sony systems, historically, Japanese pacing has always been extremely indicative of their ongoing success, and your chart also very distinctly shows the PS5 lead diminishing rapidly. At the pace things are going, when that chart is expanded to 9 weeks, PS4 will be ahead, and I foresee it staying that way.



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I expect similar to PS4 but am unsure if it'll end up being about the same, somewhat higher or somewhat lower. I'll be surprised if it doesn't fall inside the 12-16m range.

The_Liquid_Laser said:

I voted 10-11.9m. No way is PS5 selling better than PS4. I can't believe how many people actually think this will happen. Some things to consider:

1. $500 price tag
2. Looming recession
3. PS5 has much tougher competition than PS4 from both Nintendo and Microsoft.
4. Launch data is basically irrelevant. Even the Wii U sold well when it launched.

1. People are more used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics and when taking inflation and the $399 digital edition into account the price situation isn't that different from the PS4.

2. The video game industry handles recessions well, hardware sales were really high in 2009-2010 even though the economy was bad then.

3. I don't see the competition from Nintendo impacting things much outside of Japan but Microsoft could for sure take some sales away if the Series X/S has a better first year than the Xbox One. If the PS5 has a somewhat lower first year than PS4 that will probably be the main reason why.

4. This is true though having the biggest launch ever is still somewhat of a good sign at least.



I think PS5 sales will shrink and XBOX/PC sales increase as more publishers announce their games will be coming to Gamepass. EA already happened with Ubisoft more than likely next. Who knows who will come after that? And that's not even including if MS buys up studios that wouldn't have come to Gamepass otherwise.

PS5 will for sure beat Xbox this year, and perhaps every year, but I don't think it has a chance of hitting PS4 numbers because so many of these studios are only going to make maybe 1 more game that's multiplat before going Xbox/PC exclusive. That WILL impact down-the-line sales from the non-fanboys who wait until a console is out for 2-4 years before purchasing one. They will compare the catalogues and realize there really is only one choice when it comes to quantity of quality exclusives (unless they are so enamored by some Sony ip's that they can't resist the PS5, but if they were they probably would have bought the system before anyway).



Norion said:

I expect similar to PS4 but am unsure if it'll end up being about the same, somewhat higher or somewhat lower. I'll be surprised if it doesn't fall inside the 12-16m range.

The_Liquid_Laser said:

I voted 10-11.9m. No way is PS5 selling better than PS4. I can't believe how many people actually think this will happen. Some things to consider:

1. $500 price tag
2. Looming recession
3. PS5 has much tougher competition than PS4 from both Nintendo and Microsoft.
4. Launch data is basically irrelevant. Even the Wii U sold well when it launched.

1. People are more used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics and when taking inflation and the $399 digital edition into account the price situation isn't that different from the PS4.

2. The video game industry handles recessions well, hardware sales were really high in 2009-2010 even though the economy was bad then.

3. I don't see the competition from Nintendo impacting things much outside of Japan but Microsoft could for sure take some sales away if the Series X/S has a better first year than the Xbox One. If the PS5 has a somewhat lower first year than PS4 that will probably be the main reason why.

4. This is true though having the biggest launch ever is still somewhat of a good sign at least.

1.  "People are used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics...."  Compared to what?  Do you have anything specific you are referencing here?

2.  The industry handles recessions well.  That doesn't mean the PS5 will handle recessions well.  During recessions people buy the cheaper systems.  For example 2008 was the peak calendar year for both the Wii and the DS, and this was the year when the last recession started.  This recession will not be good for the PS5.

3.  I think you basically agreed with me on this one.

4.  Launch performance is neither a good sign nor a bad sign.  It doesn't mean anything.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

I expect similar to PS4 but am unsure if it'll end up being about the same, somewhat higher or somewhat lower. I'll be surprised if it doesn't fall inside the 12-16m range.

1. People are more used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics and when taking inflation and the $399 digital edition into account the price situation isn't that different from the PS4.

2. The video game industry handles recessions well, hardware sales were really high in 2009-2010 even though the economy was bad then.

3. I don't see the competition from Nintendo impacting things much outside of Japan but Microsoft could for sure take some sales away if the Series X/S has a better first year than the Xbox One. If the PS5 has a somewhat lower first year than PS4 that will probably be the main reason why.

4. This is true though having the biggest launch ever is still somewhat of a good sign at least.

1.  "People are used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics...."  Compared to what?  Do you have anything specific you are referencing here?

2.  The industry handles recessions well.  That doesn't mean the PS5 will handle recessions well.  During recessions people buy the cheaper systems.  For example 2008 was the peak calendar year for both the Wii and the DS, and this was the year when the last recession started.  This recession will not be good for the PS5.

3.  I think you basically agreed with me on this one.

4.  Launch performance is neither a good sign nor a bad sign.  It doesn't mean anything.

1. Smartphone prices going up is one example and for a video game related example GPU prices have gone up and this hasn't impacted sales negatively to a big degree. For the PS5 it will negatively impact sales among poor people but since the price situation isn't much different than the PS4's when taking into account inflation and the digital edition I don't think things will be much different.

2. That's a good point, the recession might've been a factor in why the PS3 and Xbox 360 peaked later than typical consoles. If things do get bad then I could see it delaying the peak of the new consoles too.

3. I basically do yeah, I just wanted to add my own thoughts.

4. It for sure doesn't mean much but I wouldn't say it means nothing. If the PS5 had the worst launch for a console ever instead of the best its prospects wouldn't be as good. The extreme ends of the launch scale mean at least a bit I think while the launches in between mean nothing.

Also while your prediction falls outside my range I do still consider it reasonable due to how much uncertainty there is. I'll be surprised but not massively shocked or anything like that.



Whatever they can ship. 

Last edited by green_sky - 6 days ago

It'll be based on how much Sony is able to produce. Assuming they are able to meet demand, I would say it should be around the same levels as the PS4 if not just a little more. So I'll say 14-15.9 million.

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thetonestarr said:
TruckOSaurus said:

Japan is much worse yes but it's been outpacing the PS4 in NA and Europe. Worldwide, it's ahead on PS4.

Stolen from @dmillos in the HW thread : 

Yeah I know. But with Nintendo and Sony systems, historically, Japanese pacing has always been extremely indicative of their ongoing success, and your chart also very distinctly shows the PS5 lead diminishing rapidly. At the pace things are going, when that chart is expanded to 9 weeks, PS4 will be ahead, and I foresee it staying that way.

It’s also important to note that PS4 didn’t launch in Japan until months later. PS5 includes Japanese sales already, whereas PS4’s so far would not.



Medisti said:
thetonestarr said:

Yeah I know. But with Nintendo and Sony systems, historically, Japanese pacing has always been extremely indicative of their ongoing success, and your chart also very distinctly shows the PS5 lead diminishing rapidly. At the pace things are going, when that chart is expanded to 9 weeks, PS4 will be ahead, and I foresee it staying that way.

It’s also important to note that PS4 didn’t launch in Japan until months later. PS5 includes Japanese sales already, whereas PS4’s so far would not.

This is the primary reason I think the PS5 will do about as good, if not a little worse. One can make many arguments over PS5 shipments for both sides, but in the end we will have to wait and see.