I expect similar to PS4 but am unsure if it'll end up being about the same, somewhat higher or somewhat lower. I'll be surprised if it doesn't fall inside the 12-16m range.

1. People are more used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics and when taking inflation and the $399 digital edition into account the price situation isn't that different from the PS4.

2. The video game industry handles recessions well, hardware sales were really high in 2009-2010 even though the economy was bad then.

3. I don't see the competition from Nintendo impacting things much outside of Japan but Microsoft could for sure take some sales away if the Series X/S has a better first year than the Xbox One. If the PS5 has a somewhat lower first year than PS4 that will probably be the main reason why.

4. This is true though having the biggest launch ever is still somewhat of a good sign at least.

I think PS5 sales will shrink and XBOX/PC sales increase as more publishers announce their games will be coming to Gamepass. EA already happened with Ubisoft more than likely next. Who knows who will come after that? And that's not even including if MS buys up studios that wouldn't have come to Gamepass otherwise.

PS5 will for sure beat Xbox this year, and perhaps every year, but I don't think it has a chance of hitting PS4 numbers because so many of these studios are only going to make maybe 1 more game that's multiplat before going Xbox/PC exclusive. That WILL impact down-the-line sales from the non-fanboys who wait until a console is out for 2-4 years before purchasing one. They will compare the catalogues and realize there really is only one choice when it comes to quantity of quality exclusives (unless they are so enamored by some Sony ip's that they can't resist the PS5, but if they were they probably would have bought the system before anyway).

1.  "People are used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics...."  Compared to what?  Do you have anything specific you are referencing here?

2.  The industry handles recessions well.  That doesn't mean the PS5 will handle recessions well.  During recessions people buy the cheaper systems.  For example 2008 was the peak calendar year for both the Wii and the DS, and this was the year when the last recession started.  This recession will not be good for the PS5.

3.  I think you basically agreed with me on this one.

4.  Launch performance is neither a good sign nor a bad sign.  It doesn't mean anything.

1. Smartphone prices going up is one example and for a video game related example GPU prices have gone up and this hasn't impacted sales negatively to a big degree. For the PS5 it will negatively impact sales among poor people but since the price situation isn't much different than the PS4's when taking into account inflation and the digital edition I don't think things will be much different.

2. That's a good point, the recession might've been a factor in why the PS3 and Xbox 360 peaked later than typical consoles. If things do get bad then I could see it delaying the peak of the new consoles too.

3. I basically do yeah, I just wanted to add my own thoughts.

4. It for sure doesn't mean much but I wouldn't say it means nothing. If the PS5 had the worst launch for a console ever instead of the best its prospects wouldn't be as good. The extreme ends of the launch scale mean at least a bit I think while the launches in between mean nothing.

Also while your prediction falls outside my range I do still consider it reasonable due to how much uncertainty there is. I'll be surprised but not massively shocked or anything like that.

Whatever they can ship. 

It'll be based on how much Sony is able to produce. Assuming they are able to meet demand, I would say it should be around the same levels as the PS4 if not just a little more. So I'll say 14-15.9 million.

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It’s also important to note that PS4 didn’t launch in Japan until months later. PS5 includes Japanese sales already, whereas PS4’s so far would not.

This is the primary reason I think the PS5 will do about as good, if not a little worse. One can make many arguments over PS5 shipments for both sides, but in the end we will have to wait and see.

Depends what they can make. But the gen over gen comparison is more important to follow imo

10-11.9 million