I expect similar to PS4 but am unsure if it'll end up being about the same, somewhat higher or somewhat lower. I'll be surprised if it doesn't fall inside the 12-16m range.
1. People are more used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics and when taking inflation and the $399 digital edition into account the price situation isn't that different from the PS4.
2. The video game industry handles recessions well, hardware sales were really high in 2009-2010 even though the economy was bad then.
3. I don't see the competition from Nintendo impacting things much outside of Japan but Microsoft could for sure take some sales away if the Series X/S has a better first year than the Xbox One. If the PS5 has a somewhat lower first year than PS4 that will probably be the main reason why.
4. This is true though having the biggest launch ever is still somewhat of a good sign at least.
1. "People are used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics...." Compared to what? Do you have anything specific you are referencing here?
2. The industry handles recessions well. That doesn't mean the PS5 will handle recessions well. During recessions people buy the cheaper systems. For example 2008 was the peak calendar year for both the Wii and the DS, and this was the year when the last recession started. This recession will not be good for the PS5.
3. I think you basically agreed with me on this one.
4. Launch performance is neither a good sign nor a bad sign. It doesn't mean anything.
1. Smartphone prices going up is one example and for a video game related example GPU prices have gone up and this hasn't impacted sales negatively to a big degree. For the PS5 it will negatively impact sales among poor people but since the price situation isn't much different than the PS4's when taking into account inflation and the digital edition I don't think things will be much different.
2. That's a good point, the recession might've been a factor in why the PS3 and Xbox 360 peaked later than typical consoles. If things do get bad then I could see it delaying the peak of the new consoles too.
3. I basically do yeah, I just wanted to add my own thoughts.
4. It for sure doesn't mean much but I wouldn't say it means nothing. If the PS5 had the worst launch for a console ever instead of the best its prospects wouldn't be as good. The extreme ends of the launch scale mean at least a bit I think while the launches in between mean nothing.
Also while your prediction falls outside my range I do still consider it reasonable due to how much uncertainty there is. I'll be surprised but not massively shocked or anything like that.