Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2021?

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Norion said:

I expect similar to PS4 but am unsure if it'll end up being about the same, somewhat higher or somewhat lower. I'll be surprised if it doesn't fall inside the 12-16m range.

The_Liquid_Laser said:

I voted 10-11.9m. No way is PS5 selling better than PS4. I can't believe how many people actually think this will happen. Some things to consider:

1. $500 price tag
2. Looming recession
3. PS5 has much tougher competition than PS4 from both Nintendo and Microsoft.
4. Launch data is basically irrelevant. Even the Wii U sold well when it launched.

1. People are more used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics and when taking inflation and the $399 digital edition into account the price situation isn't that different from the PS4.

2. The video game industry handles recessions well, hardware sales were really high in 2009-2010 even though the economy was bad then.

3. I don't see the competition from Nintendo impacting things much outside of Japan but Microsoft could for sure take some sales away if the Series X/S has a better first year than the Xbox One. If the PS5 has a somewhat lower first year than PS4 that will probably be the main reason why.

4. This is true though having the biggest launch ever is still somewhat of a good sign at least.

1.  "People are used to spending higher amounts of money on electronics...."  Compared to what?  Do you have anything specific you are referencing here?

2.  The industry handles recessions well.  That doesn't mean the PS5 will handle recessions well.  During recessions people buy the cheaper systems.  For example 2008 was the peak calendar year for both the Wii and the DS, and this was the year when the last recession started.  This recession will not be good for the PS5.

3.  I think you basically agreed with me on this one.

4.  Launch performance is neither a good sign nor a bad sign.  It doesn't mean anything.