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Forums - Sales Discussion - Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2021?

 

Sell-through expectations for the PlayStation 5 in 2021?

Less than 8 million 48 6.71%
 
8.0 - 9.9 million 32 4.48%
 
10.0 - 11.9 million 67 9.37%
 
12.0 - 13.9 million 92 12.87%
 
14.0 - 15.9 million 168 23.50%
 
16.0 - 17.9 million 105 14.69%
 
18.0 - 19.9 million 88 12.31%
 
20.0 - 21.9 million 55 7.69%
 
22.0 - 24.0 million 11 1.54%
 
More than 24 million 49 6.85%
 
Total:715
TruckOSaurus said:
thetonestarr said:

So far, if I recall correctly, it's been doing worse than PS4, particularly in Japan. It's hit an all-out slump in Japan, and Japanese sales have always been very important with Playstations.

I'm going with less than PS4. 10 to 12.

Japan is much worse yes but it's been outpacing the PS4 in NA and Europe. Worldwide, it's ahead on PS4.

Stolen from @dmillos in the HW thread : 

This graph does not look good for PS5. They had a fantastic launch but haven't looked impressive at all since those two launch weeks. Selling significantly worse than PS4 after the launch weeks. I'm sure PS5 will be fine overall though, but I have no expectation of it being some record breaking seller that some people are expecting. For 2021 I'd expect 14 or 15 million sales for the year, on par with what PS4 did.



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I think it will be anywhere from 16 - 18 Million. The PS5 demand is unprecedented if we're gauging social media metrics, likes, etc. Add to that massive system sellers like HFW, GoW & maybe even GT7.



How many big PS5 titles will release this year? Because it seems the PS5 is having the same software problems as the PS4 had at launch.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Hi @TruckOSaurus Thank you for sharing the chart, I am glad it has sparked some conversations. 

I feel it is important to highlight that it is a bit too soon to really know what is going to happen, The fact that the gap is so close could not be indicative of the future. Every chart brings questions, not answers. I think a good question here is why would the PS4 be closing in so fast? Is it due to shortages? or maybe there was a special release the first christmas of the ps4?

I want to share the gap chart of the WiiU and the Switch for the first 7 weeks, this can help highlight how just looking at a short window like  this could lead to the wrong conclusion:

As you can see, the switch started with a big gap but then the WiiU had 5 consecutive weeks beeting the Switch, very similar to what is currently happening with the PS4 beating the  PS5 for 5 straight weeks. 

Obviously this race was much different after this initial run, this is the gap after 52 weeks. The highlighted area are the first 7 weeks.

The Switch ended up selling almost 4 times more than the WiiU on for the first 52 weeks.

It is simply  too early to know, I think the next weeks will start showing the true potential of the PS5. If it is able to mantain the "selling everything it ships" then it should be able to turn the momentum around and start climbing like the Switch did with the WiiU. Obviously  the two are very different scenarios, including a big difference that the switch was competing at first with the WiiU Holidays, in the case of the PS5 they are basically the same weeks, so there shouldn't be a huge bump like the switch had in week 35+.

For now, all we have left is to ask us why this could be happening, and if there is a possible change in the future.



Hard to guess when Sony is selling all PS5s they can manufacture. Let's say 14 million, a bit lower than PS4. Reasons:

PS4 2014 numbers include the japanese launch. PS5 numbers in Japan will be worse.

As usual, USA will be the main selling force early in the gen. PS5 will face stronger competition in said territory because this time Xbox isn't a complete disaster.

That being said, while Playstation + Xbox sales have been similar the last two gens they've become more frontloaded, so this could offset what I've said above.



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Player2 said:

Hard to guess when Sony is selling all PS5s they can manufacture. Let's say 14 million, a bit lower than PS4. Reasons:

PS4 2014 numbers include the japanese launch. PS5 numbers in Japan will be worse.

As usual, USA will be the main selling force early in the gen. PS5 will face stronger competition in said territory because this time Xbox isn't a complete disaster.

That being said, while Playstation + Xbox sales have been similar the last two gens they've become more frontloaded, so this could offset what I've said above.

Isn't Europe a bigger market for the Playstation brand than the US? Why would the US be the main market for it at the beginning when it will probably have more competition from Xbox X?

As to Japan, the PS5 will probably be the lowest selling PS console over there. Between the Switch killing it, the drive towards mobile and away from home consoles and the diminishing focus Sony has for the japanese market, the PS5 is going to struggle a lot. Will PS5 sales be close to WiiU sales in the long run?



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Let's say, just a bit above 16m



 

Darwinianevolution said:
Player2 said:

As usual, USA will be the main selling force early in the gen. PS5 will face stronger competition in said territory because this time Xbox isn't a complete disaster.

Isn't Europe a bigger market for the Playstation brand than the US? Why would the US be the main market for it at the beginning when it will probably have more competition from Xbox X?

What I said (or tried to) is that sales for all consoles usually pick up pace earlier in USA than in Europe, so the effect of increased competition from Xbox will be more noticeable the first year.



17 milion



The diff between PS4 and PS5 is Sony will probably sell everything they ship for the entire calendar year imo.